| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Burks IND vs BAL | WR | IND vs BAL | 6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.153 | 0.040 | 2200 | OVERO +5.8% | |
| Matthew Hibner BAL @ IND | TE | BAL vs IND | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.121 | 0.032 | 2800 | OVERO +4.6% | |
| Josh Cuevas BAL @ IND | TE | BAL vs IND | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.121 | 0.035 | 2500 | OVERO +4.4% | |
| Elijah Sarratt BAL @ IND | WR | BAL vs IND | 5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.190 | 0.122 | 650 | OVERO +2.6% | |
| Rasheen Ali BAL @ IND | RB | BAL vs IND | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.086 | 0.057 | 1500 | OVERO +1.1% | |
| Seth McGowan IND vs BAL | RB | IND vs BAL | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.100 | 0.070 | 1200 | OVERO +1.0% | |
| Mo Alie-Cox IND vs BAL | TE | IND vs BAL | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.060 | 0.051 | 1700 | OVERO +0.0% | |
| Keenan Allen CHART IND vs BAL | WR | IND vs BAL | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.189 | 0.183 | 400 | OVERO -1.4% | |
| DJ Giddens IND vs BAL | RB | IND vs BAL | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.056 | 0.070 | 1200 | OVERO -1.4% | |
| Justice Hill BAL @ IND | RB | BAL vs IND | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.127 | 0.141 | 550 | OVERO -2.0% | |
| Mark Andrews BAL @ IND | TE | BAL vs IND | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.272 | 0.277 | 230 | OVERO -2.9% | |
| Daniel Jones IND vs BAL | QB | IND vs BAL | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.084 | 0.141 | 550 | OVERO -4.4% | |
| Rashod Bateman BAL @ IND | WR | BAL vs IND | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.126 | 0.179 | 410 | OVERO -4.6% | |
| Derrick Henry BAL @ IND | RB | BAL vs IND | 1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.567 | 0.569 | -165 | OVERO -5.4% | |
| Lamar Jackson BAL @ IND | QB | BAL vs IND | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.172 | 0.241 | 280 | OVERO -6.0% | |
| Tyler Warren IND vs BAL | TE | IND vs BAL | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.217 | 0.286 | 220 | OVERO -6.4% | |
| Zay Flowers BAL @ IND | WR | BAL vs IND | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.258 | 0.321 | 185 | OVERO -6.5% | |
| Ashton Dulin IND vs BAL | WR | IND vs BAL | 4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.047 | 0.152 | 500 | OVERO -7.2% | |
| Jonathan Taylor IND vs BAL | RB | IND vs BAL | 1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.550 | 0.582 | -175 | OVERO -7.2% | |
| Josh Downs IND vs BAL | WR | IND vs BAL | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.133 | 0.254 | 260 | OVERO -9.0% | |
| Alec Pierce CHART IND vs BAL | WR | IND vs BAL | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.177 | 0.321 | 185 | OVERO -10.9% | |
| Devontez Walker BAL @ IND | WR | BAL vs IND | 4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.102 | 800 | |||
| Durham Smythe BAL @ IND | TE | BAL vs IND | 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.091 | 900 | |||
| LaJohntay Wester BAL @ IND | WR | BAL vs IND | 6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.080 | 1050 | |||
| Andrew Ogletree IND vs BAL | TE | IND vs BAL | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.029 | 3000 | |||
| Laquon Treadwell IND vs BAL | WR | IND vs BAL | 5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.035 | 2500 |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.