Nasty Board

slate: 476 players, season 2026 week 8 ============================================================================== A. DO NOT BET — high-usage overs [-9.8% 2024, -17.0% 2025] ============================================================================== Player Pos Tm Opp Stat Line p_over Edge Ceil Basis ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Tyler Warren TE IND JAX REC 4.5 53.3% +5.6% 1.50 line Kyren Williams RB LA LAC RUSH_YDS 59.5 55.0% +3.8% 1.58 line 2 high-usage overs the model wants, showing 2. Both graded seasons say decline them: 2024 -9.8% (5/18 weeks), 2025 -17.0% (4/18). The mirror bet is NOT implied — top-quartile unders went +6.6% then -3.5%. ============================================================================== B. CEILING PLAYS — spike candidates [PRICEABLE, PROFIT UNTESTED] ============================================================================== Shortlist for the longest-reception / longest-rush markets. Those markets went live in odds_client on 2026-09-08 — 3 books in us, 6 in us2, two-sided, about 10 receivers an event — and the board now carries a real longest projection in the `long` column. NOTHING HERE HAS BEEN GRADED. No longest line was bought before that date, so there is no closing-price history, project.py suppresses the bet signal on all three, and the ranking is still the p90/p50 proxy rather than the projection. Player Pos Tm Opp Stat p50 p90 p90/p50 long ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Isaiah Bond WR CLE PIT REC_YDS 8.9 51.4 5.78 12.0 Isaiah Williams WR NYJ LV REC_YDS 8.1 44.8 5.50 10.0 Devontez Walker WR BAL BUF REC_YDS 9.0 49.6 5.50 12.6 Kyle Williams WR NE MIA REC_YDS 9.0 49.1 5.44 12.4 Marvin Mims Jr. WR DEN KC REC_YDS 9.9 53.3 5.40 13.6 Josh Cuevas TE BAL BUF REC_YDS 10.1 51.8 5.11 10.6 Tai Felton WR MIN DET REC_YDS 8.0 40.2 5.00 10.8 Elijah Sarratt WR BAL BUF REC_YDS 9.0 41.7 4.62 11.0 Zachariah Branch WR ATL TB REC_YDS 9.0 39.9 4.44 10.5 Savion Williams WR GB CAR RUSH_YDS 5.8 25.3 4.40 6.5 Josh Palmer WR BUF BAL REC_YDS 12.0 51.0 4.25 13.6 Treylon Burks WR WAS PHI REC_YDS 14.4 60.6 4.21 15.0 Jalen Royals WR KC DEN REC_YDS 11.0 46.0 4.18 11.4 Jordan Love QB GB CAR RUSH_YDS 6.9 28.7 4.17 7.0 Emmett Johnson RB KC DEN REC_YDS 8.0 33.0 4.12 8.2 Erick All TE CIN TEN REC_YDS 8.2 33.7 4.12 8.3 Daniel Bellinger TE TEN CIN REC_YDS 9.4 38.4 4.11 9.4 Brycen Tremayne WR CAR GB REC_YDS 9.7 39.9 4.10 10.2 Josh Cameron WR JAX IND REC_YDS 10.8 44.3 4.09 11.2 Dyami Brown WR WAS PHI REC_YDS 12.3 50.3 4.08 12.4 Tyjae Spears RB TEN CIN REC_YDS 10.4 41.6 4.00 10.1 Kevin Coleman Jr. WR MIA NE REC_YDS 12.1 48.4 4.00 11.6 Geno Smith QB NYJ LV RUSH_YDS 7.8 31.4 4.00 7.4 Cody White WR LV NYJ REC_YDS 12.1 47.4 3.92 12.6 Javonte Williams RB DAL ARI REC_YDS 8.9 34.8 3.89 8.1 ============================================================================== C. FAVORITE UNDERS — 7+ point favourites [NOT SUPPORTED ON 2025] ============================================================================== Watch list only. Unders by own-team spread returned +2.0% at 10+, -3.5% at 4-9.5, +1.7% as a dog — no gradient. Do not bet this section off this section. See the module docstring. Player Pos Tm Stat Line p_under Spread ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Daniel Bellinger TE TEN REC 1.5 59.9% -10.0 Malik Willis QB MIA RUSH_YDS 34.5 59.3% -7.5 Ollie Gordon II RB MIA RUSH_YDS 60.5 58.3% -7.5 Gunnar Helm TE TEN REC 2.5 58.1% -10.0 Caleb Douglas WR MIA REC 3.5 57.9% -7.5 Malik Washington WR MIA REC 4.5 57.6% -7.5 Greg Dulcich TE MIA REC 3.5 56.9% -7.5 Ollie Gordon II RB MIA REC_YDS 9.5 56.2% -7.5 Ollie Gordon II RB MIA REC 1.5 55.8% -7.5 Malik Washington WR MIA RUSH_YDS 5.5 54.6% -7.5 ============================================================================== D. LONGSHOT TOUCHDOWNS — +800 or better [DOES NOT REPRODUCE — DO NOT BET] ============================================================================== This section used to advertise a selection rule that returned +45.1% (n=2,283, 2024 +33.9%, 2025 +55.8%, z +3.87). It does not survive a re-grade on the current code and data. Regraded 2026-10-01 with backtest_anytime_td.py on the same 2024+25 closing prices, weeks 2-18, the top model-edge quartile at +800 or better returns -29.3% pooled (2024 -47.7%, 2025 -15.6%, game-clustered z -1.01). An edge>0 slice regraded 2026-09-20 returned -25.8% (n=2,864), and the legs the model liked LESS hit more often than the ones it liked more. What still holds is the market, not the model: anytime-TD overs returned -12.2% in 2024 and -10.3% in 2025 on 12,603 graded legs, and the +800-and-longer prices were the worst of it. The favourite-longshot bias is real and it is against you. Why the old number is gone: it predates two changes to the volume inputs (the leak fix and the RB position repair, mid-September). The leading explanation is that most of the +45.1% was the leak; that has not been isolated. The lists below are SHADOW ONLY — what the old rule would have picked — kept so they can be graded forward, not to be bet. Forward evidence is in atd_clv.py (closing-line value), which is a price signal, not a profit one. SHADOW BUY — old rule, do not bet Player Pos Tm Opp Odds be model edge dep conflict ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Mitchell Tinsley WR CIN TEN +1000 0.091 0.262 +0.171 4 Jacoby Brissett QB ARI DAL +800 0.111 0.273 +0.161 1 Kevin Coleman Jr. WR MIA NE +1450 0.065 0.169 +0.105 4 Skyler Bell WR BUF BAL +1200 0.077 0.178 +0.101 6 Rasheen Ali RB BAL BUF +2800 0.034 0.128 +0.094 3 Nate Adkins TE DEN KC +1750 0.054 0.142 +0.088 3 Jaleel McLaughlin RB CLE PIT +1750 0.054 0.140 +0.086 3 Josh Cuevas TE BAL BUF +1100 0.083 0.169 +0.086 3 Andrew Armstrong WR KC DEN +1200 0.077 0.151 +0.075 6 Malik Benson WR LV NYJ +1750 0.054 0.128 +0.074 5 Dean Connors RB LA LAC +2200 0.043 0.116 +0.073 3 Austin Hooper TE ATL TB +1200 0.077 0.147 +0.070 3 SHADOW FADE — old rule Player Pos Tm Opp Odds be model edge dep conflict ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tutu Atwell WR LA LAC +1000 0.091 0.041 -0.050 4 Sione Vaki RB DET MIN +900 0.100 0.052 -0.048 2 Velus Jones Jr. RB SEA CHI +800 0.111 0.072 -0.039 4 Tai Felton WR MIN DET +1100 0.083 0.058 -0.026 4 Jonnu Smith TE GB CAR +1100 0.083 0.058 -0.026 2 Emmett Johnson RB KC DEN +950 0.095 0.073 -0.022 2 Geno Smith QB NYJ LV +950 0.095 0.082 -0.013 1 Ben Skowronek WR PIT CLE +1500 0.062 0.050 -0.012 3 Ray Davis RB BUF BAL +1000 0.091 0.080 -0.011 3 Jalen Royals WR KC DEN +800 0.111 0.103 -0.008 3 Matthew Stafford QB LA LAC +2000 0.048 0.040 -0.008 1 Dylan Laube RB LV NYJ +1400 0.067 0.060 -0.007 3 `conflict` = the depth chart and the model disagree about who starts. Those legs are cold-start noise on both sides; skip them.