| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlin Klein HOU vs BUF | TE | HOU vs BUF | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.122 | 0.021 | 4000 | OVERO +5.2% | |
| Skyler Bell BUF @ HOU | WR | BUF vs HOU | 5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.142 | 0.043 | 1900 | OVERO +4.7% | |
| Cade Stover HOU vs BUF | TE | HOU vs BUF | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.097 | 0.028 | 3000 | OVERO +3.4% | |
| Jared Wayne HOU vs BUF | WR | HOU vs BUF | 5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.088 | 0.021 | 4000 | OVERO +3.4% | |
| Josh Allen BUF @ HOU | QB | BUF vs HOU | 1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.499 | 0.354 | 145 | OVERO +2.6% | |
| Keon Coleman BUF @ HOU | WR | BUF vs HOU | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.169 | 0.096 | 800 | OVERO +2.5% | |
| Dawson Knox BUF @ HOU | TE | BUF vs HOU | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.150 | 0.116 | 650 | OVERO +0.1% | |
| Keleki Latu BUF @ HOU | TE | BUF vs HOU | 4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.028 | 0.030 | 2800 | OVERO -0.5% | |
| Foster Moreau HOU vs BUF | TE | HOU vs BUF | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.066 | 0.067 | 1200 | OVERO -1.1% | |
| Dalton Schultz HOU vs BUF | TE | HOU vs BUF | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.192 | 0.174 | 400 | OVERO -1.6% | |
| Kayshon Boutte HOU vs BUF | WR | HOU vs BUF | 4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.162 | 0.151 | 475 | OVERO -1.7% | |
| C.J. Stroud CHART HOU vs BUF | QB | HOU vs BUF | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.087 | 0.096 | 800 | OVERO -2.0% | |
| Jackson Hawes BUF @ HOU | TE | BUF vs HOU | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.050 | 0.075 | 1050 | OVERO -2.5% | |
| Ty Johnson BUF @ HOU | RB | BUF vs HOU | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.083 | 0.102 | 750 | OVERO -2.6% | |
| Josh Palmer BUF @ HOU | WR | BUF vs HOU | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.070 | 0.096 | 800 | OVERO -2.9% | |
| Ray Davis BUF @ HOU | RB | BUF vs HOU | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.097 | 0.120 | 625 | OVERO -3.1% | |
| Jaylin Noel HOU vs BUF | WR | HOU vs BUF | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.113 | 0.139 | 525 | OVERO -3.5% | |
| Xavier Hutchinson HOU vs BUF | WR | HOU vs BUF | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.103 | 0.134 | 550 | OVERO -3.7% | |
| Woody Marks HOU vs BUF | RB | HOU vs BUF | 2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.238 | 0.248 | 250 | OVERO -4.3% | |
| Nico Collins HOU vs BUF | WR | HOU vs BUF | 1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.316 | 0.310 | 180 | OVERO -4.4% | |
| James Cook BUF @ HOU | RB | BUF vs HOU | 1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.439 | 0.413 | 110 | OVERO -4.9% | |
| Khalil Shakir BUF @ HOU | WR | BUF vs HOU | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.131 | 0.189 | 360 | OVERO -6.1% | |
| David Montgomery HOU vs BUF | RB | HOU vs BUF | 1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.350 | 0.395 | 120 | OVERO -8.4% | |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF @ HOU | TE | BUF vs HOU | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.103 | 0.217 | 300 | OVERO -9.6% | |
| DJ Moore CHART BUF @ HOU | WR | BUF vs HOU | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.108 | 0.225 | 285 | OVERO -9.9% | |
| British Brooks HOU vs BUF | RB | HOU vs BUF | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.048 | 1700 |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.