| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Roush CHI @ CAR | TE | CHI vs CAR | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.129 | 0.032 | 2500 | OVERO +4.7% | |
| Zavion Thomas CHI @ CAR | WR | CHI vs CAR | 4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.202 | 0.093 | 800 | OVERO +4.2% | |
| AJ Dillon CAR vs CHI | RB | CAR vs CHI | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.139 | 0.060 | 1300 | OVERO +3.2% | |
| Xavier Legette CAR vs CHI | WR | CAR vs CHI | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.183 | 0.112 | 650 | OVERO +1.8% | |
| Jahdae Walker CHI @ CAR | WR | CHI vs CAR | 5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.086 | 0.044 | 1800 | OVERO +1.5% | |
| John Metchie III CAR vs CHI | WR | CAR vs CHI | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.124 | 0.073 | 1050 | OVERO +1.4% | |
| Darren Waller CHART CAR vs CHI | TE | CAR vs CHI | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.158 | 0.099 | 750 | OVERO +1.4% | |
| Roschon Johnson CHI @ CAR | RB | CHI vs CAR | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.146 | 0.105 | 700 | OVERO +0.2% | |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR vs CHI | TE | CAR vs CHI | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.124 | 0.093 | 800 | OVERO -0.1% | |
| Mitchell Evans CAR vs CHI | TE | CAR vs CHI | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.093 | 0.076 | 1000 | OVERO -0.6% | |
| Tommy Tremble CHART CAR vs CHI | TE | CAR vs CHI | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.141 | 0.120 | 600 | OVERO -1.2% | |
| Cole Kmet CHI @ CAR | TE | CHI vs CAR | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.127 | 0.120 | 600 | OVERO -1.9% | |
| Bryce Young CAR vs CHI | QB | CAR vs CHI | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.135 | 0.134 | 525 | OVERO -2.5% | |
| Rome Odunze CHI @ CAR | WR | CHI vs CAR | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.264 | 0.230 | 265 | OVERO -2.6% | |
| Jalen Coker CAR vs CHI | WR | CAR vs CHI | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.181 | 0.175 | 380 | OVERO -3.0% | |
| Kyle Monangai CHI @ CAR | RB | CHI vs CAR | 2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.284 | 0.271 | 210 | OVERO -4.5% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan CAR vs CHI | WR | CAR vs CHI | 1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.310 | 0.300 | 180 | OVERO -5.2% | |
| Caleb Williams CHI @ CAR | QB | CHI vs CAR | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.106 | 0.158 | 430 | OVERO -5.9% | |
| Colston Loveland CHI @ CAR | TE | CHI vs CAR | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.229 | 0.258 | 225 | OVERO -6.6% | |
| D'Andre Swift CHI @ CAR | RB | CHI vs CAR | 1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.447 | 0.475 | -130 | OVERO -10.6% | |
| Luther Burden III CHI @ CAR | WR | CHI vs CAR | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.120 | 0.247 | 240 | OVERO -11.7% | |
| Jonathon Brooks CAR vs CHI | RB | CAR vs CHI | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.206 | 0.311 | 170 | OVERO -11.7% | |
| Chuba Hubbard CAR vs CHI | RB | CAR vs CHI | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.253 | 0.398 | 111 | OVERO -15.6% | |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. CAR vs CHI | WR | CAR vs CHI | 5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.093 | 800 | |||
| Brycen Tremayne CAR vs CHI | WR | CAR vs CHI | 6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.044 | 1800 | |||
| Feleipe Franks CAR vs CHI | TE | CAR vs CHI | 5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.018 | 4500 | |||
| Kalif Raymond CHI @ CAR | WR | CHI vs CAR | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.124 | 575 |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.