| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Williams JAX vs CLE | WR | JAX vs CLE | 6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.168 | 0.048 | 1700 | OVERO +5.9% | |
| Josh Cameron JAX vs CLE | WR | JAX vs CLE | 5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.168 | 0.058 | 1400 | OVERO +5.2% | |
| Raheim Sanders CLE @ JAX | RB | CLE vs JAX | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.156 | 0.062 | 1300 | OVERO +4.2% | |
| Carsen Ryan CLE @ JAX | TE | CLE vs JAX | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.092 | 0.030 | 2800 | OVERO +3.0% | |
| Tanner Koziol JAX vs CLE | TE | JAX vs CLE | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.104 | 0.043 | 1900 | OVERO +2.7% | |
| Nate Boerkircher JAX vs CLE | TE | JAX vs CLE | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.104 | 0.058 | 1400 | OVERO +1.7% | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX vs CLE | RB | JAX vs CLE | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.373 | 0.289 | 200 | OVERO +0.2% | |
| Malachi Corley CLE @ JAX | WR | CLE vs JAX | 6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.057 | 0.043 | 1900 | OVERO +0.1% | |
| Denzel Boston CLE @ JAX | WR | CLE vs JAX | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.144 | 0.115 | 650 | OVERO -0.2% | |
| Ameer Abdullah JAX vs CLE | RB | JAX vs CLE | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.071 | 0.067 | 1200 | OVERO -0.8% | |
| Isaiah Bond CLE @ JAX | WR | CLE vs JAX | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.066 | 0.067 | 1200 | OVERO -1.1% | |
| Deshaun Watson CLE @ JAX | QB | CLE vs JAX | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.092 | 0.087 | 900 | OVERO -1.1% | |
| KC Concepcion CLE @ JAX | WR | CLE vs JAX | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.144 | 0.151 | 475 | OVERO -2.7% | |
| Dylan Sampson CLE @ JAX | RB | CLE vs JAX | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.095 | 0.115 | 650 | OVERO -2.9% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. CLE @ JAX | TE | CLE vs JAX | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.182 | 0.188 | 360 | OVERO -3.3% | |
| Jerry Jeudy CLE @ JAX | WR | CLE vs JAX | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.091 | 0.133 | 550 | OVERO -4.4% | |
| Brian Thomas Jr. CHART JAX vs CLE | WR | JAX vs CLE | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.218 | 0.237 | 265 | OVERO -4.7% | |
| Bhayshul Tuten CHART JAX vs CLE | RB | JAX vs CLE | 1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.326 | 0.340 | 155 | OVERO -6.0% | |
| Parker Washington JAX vs CLE | WR | JAX vs CLE | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.209 | 0.262 | 230 | OVERO -7.0% | |
| Jakobi Meyers CHART JAX vs CLE | WR | JAX vs CLE | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.172 | 0.237 | 265 | OVERO -7.3% | |
| Brenton Strange JAX vs CLE | TE | JAX vs CLE | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.136 | 0.211 | 310 | OVERO -7.4% | |
| Trevor Lawrence JAX vs CLE | QB | JAX vs CLE | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.172 | 0.241 | 260 | OVERO -7.5% | |
| Quinshon Judkins CLE @ JAX | RB | CLE vs JAX | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.220 | 0.327 | 165 | OVERO -10.9% | |
| Tylan Wallace CLE @ JAX | WR | CLE vs JAX | 5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.038 | 2200 | |||
| Blake Whiteheart CLE @ JAX | TE | CLE vs JAX | 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.038 | 2200 | |||
| Quintin Morris JAX vs CLE | TE | JAX vs CLE | 4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.021 | 4000 | |||
| LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX vs CLE | RB | JAX vs CLE | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.079 | 1000 |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.