| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Franklin DEN @ KC | WR | DEN vs KC | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.171 | 0.079 | 1000 | OVERO +3.9% | |
| Dallen Bentley DEN @ KC | TE | DEN vs KC | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.089 | 0.014 | 6000 | OVERO +3.9% | |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey DEN @ KC | WR | DEN vs KC | 6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.093 | 0.028 | 3000 | OVERO +3.2% | |
| Cyrus Allen KC vs DEN | WR | KC vs DEN | 5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.155 | 0.082 | 950 | OVERO +2.7% | |
| RJ Harvey DEN @ KC | RB | DEN vs KC | 2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.339 | 0.247 | 250 | OVERO +1.2% | |
| Noah Gray KC vs DEN | TE | KC vs DEN | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.082 | 0.079 | 1000 | OVERO -1.0% | |
| Marvin Mims Jr. DEN @ KC | WR | DEN vs KC | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.089 | 0.087 | 900 | OVERO -1.2% | |
| Rashee Rice KC vs DEN | WR | KC vs DEN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.403 | 0.333 | 160 | OVERO -1.3% | |
| Patrick Mahomes KC vs DEN | QB | KC vs DEN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.113 | 0.115 | 650 | OVERO -1.9% | |
| Brashard Smith KC vs DEN | RB | KC vs DEN | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.075 | 0.087 | 900 | OVERO -2.0% | |
| Tyquan Thornton KC vs DEN | WR | KC vs DEN | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.102 | 0.108 | 700 | OVERO -2.0% | |
| Pat Bryant DEN @ KC | WR | DEN vs KC | 5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.087 | 0.108 | 700 | OVERO -2.8% | |
| Jonah Coleman DEN @ KC | RB | DEN vs KC | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.091 | 0.115 | 650 | OVERO -3.1% | |
| Emmett Johnson KC vs DEN | RB | KC vs DEN | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.101 | 0.124 | 600 | OVERO -3.1% | |
| Xavier Worthy KC vs DEN | WR | KC vs DEN | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.201 | 0.204 | 325 | OVERO -3.3% | |
| Bo Nix DEN @ KC | QB | DEN vs KC | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.111 | 0.144 | 500 | OVERO -4.1% | |
| Courtland Sutton CHART DEN @ KC | WR | DEN vs KC | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.207 | 0.228 | 280 | OVERO -4.7% | |
| Evan Engram DEN @ KC | TE | DEN vs KC | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.056 | 0.124 | 600 | OVERO -5.6% | |
| J.K. Dobbins DEN @ KC | RB | DEN vs KC | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.261 | 0.304 | 185 | OVERO -7.1% | |
| Jaylen Waddle DEN @ KC | WR | DEN vs KC | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.169 | 0.247 | 250 | OVERO -8.1% | |
| Travis Kelce KC vs DEN | TE | KC vs DEN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.213 | 0.289 | 200 | OVERO -8.6% | |
| Kenneth Walker III KC vs DEN | RB | KC vs DEN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.294 | 0.469 | -118 | OVERO -16.9% | |
| Nate Adkins DEN @ KC | TE | DEN vs KC | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.033 | 2500 | |||
| Adam Trautman DEN @ KC | TE | DEN vs KC | 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.075 | 1050 | |||
| Nikko Remigio KC vs DEN | WR | KC vs DEN | 6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.030 | 2800 | |||
| Jalen Royals KC vs DEN | WR | KC vs DEN | 4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.028 | 3000 | |||
| Jared Wiley KC vs DEN | TE | KC vs DEN | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.033 | 2500 |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.