| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith GB @ MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.160 | 0.059 | 1200 | OVERO +3.7% | |
| Demond Claiborne MIN vs GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.097 | 0.048 | 1500 | OVERO +1.2% | |
| Christian Watson GB @ MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.360 | 0.220 | 250 | OVERO +1.1% | |
| Jordan Addison MIN vs GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.318 | 0.211 | 265 | OVERO -0.4% | |
| Josh Oliver MIN vs GB | TE | MIN vs GB | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.090 | 0.067 | 1050 | OVERO -0.8% | |
| Jauan Jennings MIN vs GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.235 | 0.171 | 350 | OVERO -1.6% | |
| Bo Melton GB @ MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.059 | 0.059 | 1200 | OVERO -1.8% | |
| Tucker Kraft GB @ MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.294 | 0.220 | 250 | OVERO -2.5% | |
| Jordan Love GB @ MIN | QB | GB vs MIN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.072 | 0.081 | 850 | OVERO -2.9% | |
| Jayden Reed GB @ MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.216 | 0.187 | 310 | OVERO -4.0% | |
| Kyler Murray CHART MIN vs GB | QB | MIN vs GB | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.223 | 0.202 | 280 | OVERO -5.0% | |
| Aaron Jones MIN vs GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.311 | 0.279 | 175 | OVERO -6.7% | |
| T.J. Hockenson MIN vs GB | TE | MIN vs GB | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.098 | 0.151 | 410 | OVERO -7.5% | |
| Kaleb Johnson GB @ MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.047 | 0.140 | 450 | OVERO -9.3% | |
| Justin Jefferson MIN vs GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.251 | 0.278 | 176 | OVERO -9.9% | |
| Matthew Golden GB @ MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.069 | 0.181 | 325 | OVERO -11.6% | |
| Jordan Mason MIN vs GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.186 | 0.285 | 170 | OVERO -14.0% | |
| MarShawn Lloyd CHART GB @ MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.128 | 0.411 | -115 | OVERO -28.0% | |
| Chris Brooks GB @ MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.148 | 420 | |||
| Josh Whyle GB @ MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.025 | 3000 | |||
| Skyy Moore GB @ MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.048 | 1500 | |||
| Tai Felton MIN vs GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.070 | 1000 | |||
| Myles Price MIN vs GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.048 | 1500 | |||
| Ben Yurosek MIN vs GB | TE | MIN vs GB | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.026 | 2800 |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.