| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montorie Foster Jr SEA vs NE | WR | SEA vs NE | 5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.201 | 0.034 | 2400 | OVERO +8.6% | |
| Tory Horton SEA vs NE | WR | SEA vs NE | 4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.213 | 0.066 | 1200 | OVERO +7.0% | |
| Tanner Arkin NE @ SEA | TE | NE vs SEA | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.086 | 0.030 | 2800 | OVERO +2.6% | |
| Eli Raridon NE @ SEA | TE | NE vs SEA | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.086 | 0.054 | 1500 | OVERO +0.9% | |
| Elijah Arroyo SEA vs NE | TE | SEA vs NE | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.098 | 0.069 | 1150 | OVERO +0.5% | |
| Mack Hollins NE @ SEA | WR | NE vs SEA | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.109 | 0.078 | 1000 | OVERO +0.4% | |
| AJ Barner SEA vs NE | TE | SEA vs NE | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.266 | 0.202 | 325 | OVERO +0.2% | |
| Sam Darnold SEA vs NE | QB | SEA vs NE | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.085 | 0.069 | 1150 | OVERO -0.2% | |
| Emanuel Wilson CHART SEA vs NE | RB | SEA vs NE | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.186 | 0.156 | 450 | OVERO -0.9% | |
| Romeo Doubs NE @ SEA | WR | NE vs SEA | 2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.244 | 0.202 | 325 | OVERO -1.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp SEA vs NE | WR | SEA vs NE | 3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.283 | 0.236 | 265 | OVERO -1.2% | |
| TreVeyon Henderson NE @ SEA | RB | NE vs SEA | 2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.263 | 0.224 | 285 | OVERO -1.4% | |
| Corey Kiner NE @ SEA | RB | NE vs SEA | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.065 | 0.086 | 900 | OVERO -2.5% | |
| Hunter Henry NE @ SEA | TE | NE vs SEA | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.183 | 0.187 | 360 | OVERO -3.3% | |
| Drake Maye NE @ SEA | QB | NE vs SEA | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.144 | 0.165 | 420 | OVERO -3.8% | |
| George Holani SEA vs NE | RB | SEA vs NE | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.199 | 0.236 | 265 | OVERO -5.8% | |
| Rashid Shaheed SEA vs NE | WR | SEA vs NE | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.169 | 0.218 | 295 | OVERO -6.2% | |
| A.J. Brown NE @ SEA | WR | NE vs SEA | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.264 | 0.319 | 170 | OVERO -8.2% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs NE | WR | SEA vs NE | 1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.341 | 0.382 | 125 | OVERO -8.5% | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE @ SEA | RB | NE vs SEA | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.210 | 0.344 | 150 | OVERO -13.0% | |
| Jadarian Price CHART SEA vs NE | RB | SEA vs NE | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.133 | 0.374 | 130 | OVERO -19.3% | |
| DeMario Douglas NE @ SEA | WR | NE vs SEA | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.108 | 700 | |||
| Efton Chism III NE @ SEA | WR | NE vs SEA | 6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.014 | 6000 | |||
| Kyle Williams NE @ SEA | WR | NE vs SEA | 5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.061 | 1300 | |||
| Reggie Gilliam NE @ SEA | RB | NE vs SEA | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.019 | 4500 | ||||
| Eric Saubert SEA vs NE | TE | SEA vs NE | 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.028 | 3000 | |||
| Brady Russell SEA vs NE | RB | SEA vs NE | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.009 | 9000 | ||||
| Nick Kallerup SEA vs NE | TE | SEA vs NE | 4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.025 | 3400 |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.