| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Lance NO @ DET | WR | NO vs DET | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.153 | 0.074 | 1050 | OVERO +3.0% | |
| Oscar Delp NO @ DET | TE | NO vs DET | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.098 | 0.047 | 1700 | OVERO +1.9% | |
| Tay Martin DET vs NO | WR | DET vs NO | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.051 | 0.029 | 2800 | OVERO +0.7% | |
| Alvin Kamara NO @ DET | RB | NO vs DET | 2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.285 | 0.212 | 300 | OVERO +0.2% | |
| Barion Brown NO @ DET | WR | NO vs DET | 4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.153 | 0.121 | 600 | OVERO -0.4% | |
| Sione Vaki DET vs NO | RB | DET vs NO | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.053 | 0.053 | 1500 | OVERO -0.9% | |
| Sam LaPorta DET vs NO | TE | DET vs NO | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.280 | 0.232 | 265 | OVERO -1.5% | |
| Audric Estimé NO @ DET | RB | NO vs DET | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.125 | 0.121 | 600 | OVERO -2.0% | |
| Isaac TeSlaa DET vs NO | WR | DET vs NO | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.153 | 0.148 | 475 | OVERO -2.3% | |
| Jabari Small DET vs NO | RB | DET vs NO | 5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.111 | 0.121 | 600 | OVERO -2.7% | |
| Brock Wright DET vs NO | TE | DET vs NO | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.109 | 0.121 | 600 | OVERO -2.8% | |
| Juwan Johnson NO @ DET | TE | NO vs DET | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.176 | 0.177 | 380 | OVERO -3.2% | |
| Noah Fant NO @ DET | TE | NO vs DET | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.065 | 0.094 | 800 | OVERO -3.3% | |
| Devaughn Vele NO @ DET | WR | NO vs DET | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.108 | 0.144 | 490 | OVERO -4.5% | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET vs NO | WR | DET vs NO | 1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.454 | 0.414 | 105 | OVERO -5.2% | |
| Kendre Miller NO @ DET | RB | NO vs DET | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.085 | 0.136 | 525 | OVERO -5.2% | |
| Tyler Shough NO @ DET | QB | NO vs DET | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.101 | 0.154 | 450 | OVERO -5.7% | |
| Jameson Williams DET vs NO | WR | DET vs NO | 2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.244 | 0.293 | 190 | OVERO -7.9% | |
| Jacob Saylors DET vs NO | RB | DET vs NO | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.062 | 0.170 | 400 | OVERO -8.9% | |
| Isiah Pacheco DET vs NO | RB | DET vs NO | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.199 | 0.274 | 210 | OVERO -9.0% | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET vs NO | RB | DET vs NO | 1 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.624 | 0.619 | -270 | OVERO -10.8% | |
| Chris Olave NO @ DET | WR | NO vs DET | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.226 | 0.326 | 160 | OVERO -11.3% | |
| Travis Etienne NO @ DET | RB | NO vs DET | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.288 | 0.404 | 110 | OVERO -13.6% | |
| Jackson Meeks DET vs NO | WR | DET vs NO | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.042 | 1900 | ||||
| Jared Goff DET vs NO | QB | DET vs NO | 1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.042 | 1900 |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.