| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley TEN vs NYJ | WR | TEN vs NYJ | 3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.241 | 0.130 | 600 | OVERO +4.8% | |
| Elic Ayomanor TEN vs NYJ | WR | TEN vs NYJ | 5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.177 | 0.082 | 1000 | OVERO +4.3% | |
| Chimere Dike TEN vs NYJ | WR | TEN vs NYJ | 4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.188 | 0.113 | 700 | OVERO +3.0% | |
| Tim Patrick NYJ @ TEN | WR | NYJ vs TEN | 5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.112 | 0.065 | 1300 | OVERO +1.9% | |
| Geno Smith NYJ @ TEN | QB | NYJ vs TEN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.067 | 0.050 | 1700 | OVERO +0.4% | |
| Julius Chestnut TEN vs NYJ | RB | TEN vs NYJ | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.055 | 0.045 | 1900 | OVERO +0.1% | |
| Nicholas Singleton TEN vs NYJ | RB | TEN vs NYJ | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.126 | 0.107 | 750 | OVERO -0.0% | |
| Mason Taylor NYJ @ TEN | TE | NYJ vs TEN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.113 | 0.107 | 750 | OVERO -0.7% | |
| Jeremy Ruckert NYJ @ TEN | TE | NYJ vs TEN | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.051 | 0.057 | 1500 | OVERO -0.9% | |
| Daniel Bellinger TEN vs NYJ | TE | TEN vs NYJ | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.066 | 0.070 | 1200 | OVERO -0.9% | |
| Cam Ward TEN vs NYJ | QB | TEN vs NYJ | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.093 | 0.095 | 850 | OVERO -1.1% | |
| Kenyon Sadiq NYJ @ TEN | TE | NYJ vs TEN | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.121 | 0.121 | 650 | OVERO -1.2% | |
| Carnell Tate CHART TEN vs NYJ | WR | TEN vs NYJ | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.191 | 0.189 | 380 | OVERO -1.8% | |
| Isaiah Davis NYJ @ TEN | RB | NYJ vs TEN | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.092 | 0.107 | 750 | OVERO -1.9% | |
| Gunnar Helm TEN vs NYJ | TE | TEN vs NYJ | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.115 | 0.130 | 600 | OVERO -2.1% | |
| Isaiah Williams NYJ @ TEN | WR | NYJ vs TEN | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.083 | 0.107 | 750 | OVERO -2.4% | |
| Braelon Allen NYJ @ TEN | RB | NYJ vs TEN | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.146 | 0.174 | 420 | OVERO -3.4% | |
| Adonai Mitchell NYJ @ TEN | WR | NYJ vs TEN | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.097 | 0.134 | 575 | OVERO -3.4% | |
| Garrett Wilson NYJ @ TEN | WR | NYJ vs TEN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.225 | 0.267 | 240 | OVERO -5.0% | |
| Tyjae Spears TEN vs NYJ | RB | TEN vs NYJ | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.154 | 0.245 | 270 | OVERO -7.5% | |
| Tony Pollard TEN vs NYJ | RB | TEN vs NYJ | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.266 | 0.370 | 145 | OVERO -9.5% | |
| Breece Hall NYJ @ TEN | RB | NYJ vs TEN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.296 | 0.422 | 115 | OVERO -11.2% | |
| Arian Smith NYJ @ TEN | WR | NYJ vs TEN | 6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.045 | 1900 | |||
| Jelani Woods NYJ @ TEN | TE | NYJ vs TEN | 4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.020 | 4500 | |||
| Kene Nwangwu NYJ @ TEN | RB | NYJ vs TEN | 4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.039 | 2200 | |||
| Kylen Granson TEN vs NYJ | TE | TEN vs NYJ | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.022 | 4000 | |||
| David Martin-Robinson TEN vs NYJ | TE | TEN vs NYJ | 4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.025 | 3500 |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.