| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Daniels LA vs SF | WR | LA vs SF | 7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.155 | 0.042 | 1900 | OVERO +5.4% | |
| Max Klare LA vs SF | TE | LA vs SF | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.098 | 0.016 | 5000 | OVERO +4.2% | |
| Tyler Higbee LA vs SF | TE | LA vs SF | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.125 | 0.072 | 1050 | OVERO +1.4% | |
| Demarcus Robinson SF @ LA | WR | SF vs LA | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.112 | 0.079 | 950 | OVERO +0.2% | |
| Davis Allen LA vs SF | TE | LA vs SF | 5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.089 | 0.083 | 900 | OVERO -1.3% | |
| Xavier Smith LA vs SF | WR | LA vs SF | 6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.052 | 0.060 | 1300 | OVERO -1.6% | |
| Kaelon Black SF @ LA | RB | SF vs LA | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.080 | 0.083 | 900 | OVERO -1.9% | |
| Colby Parkinson CHART LA vs SF | TE | LA vs SF | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.175 | 0.159 | 425 | OVERO -2.3% | |
| Brock Purdy CHART SF @ LA | QB | SF vs LA | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.096 | 0.111 | 650 | OVERO -3.1% | |
| Kyren Williams LA vs SF | RB | LA vs SF | 1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.564 | 0.463 | -125 | OVERO -3.7% | |
| Davante Adams LA vs SF | WR | LA vs SF | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.410 | 0.355 | 135 | OVERO -4.0% | |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. SF @ LA | WR | SF vs LA | 2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.260 | 0.260 | 220 | OVERO -5.3% | |
| Mike Evans SF @ LA | WR | SF vs LA | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.270 | 0.269 | 210 | OVERO -5.3% | |
| George Kittle SF @ LA | TE | SF vs LA | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.203 | 0.225 | 270 | OVERO -5.7% | |
| Terrance Ferguson LA vs SF | TE | LA vs SF | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.092 | 0.154 | 440 | OVERO -6.5% | |
| Jake Tonges SF @ LA | TE | SF vs LA | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.094 | 0.189 | 340 | OVERO -9.1% | |
| Puka Nacua LA vs SF | WR | LA vs SF | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.277 | 0.347 | 140 | OVERO -10.8% | |
| Christian McCaffrey SF @ LA | RB | SF vs LA | 1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.462 | 0.500 | -150 | OVERO -12.1% | |
| Blake Corum LA vs SF | RB | LA vs SF | 2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.167 | 0.315 | 165 | OVERO -14.4% | |
| Tutu Atwell LA vs SF | WR | LA vs SF | 5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.060 | 1300 | |||
| Jordan Whittington LA vs SF | WR | LA vs SF | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.098 | 750 | |||
| Konata Mumpfield LA vs SF | WR | LA vs SF | 4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.104 | 700 | |||
| Ronnie Rivers LA vs SF | RB | LA vs SF | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.036 | 2200 | |||
| Matthew Stafford LA vs SF | QB | LA vs SF | 1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.020 | 4000 | |||
| Jacob Cowing SF @ LA | WR | SF vs LA | 6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.076 | 1000 | |||
| Jordan Watkins SF @ LA | WR | SF vs LA | 5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.033 | 2400 | |||
| Luke Farrell SF @ LA | TE | SF vs LA | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.064 | 1200 | |||
| Brayden Willis SF @ LA | TE | SF vs LA | 4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.072 | 1050 |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.