| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Tucker TB @ CIN | RB | TB vs CIN | 3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.272 | 0.131 | 550 | OVERO +5.4% | |
| Tahj Brooks CIN vs TB | RB | CIN vs TB | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.130 | 0.047 | 1700 | OVERO +3.7% | |
| Colbie Young CIN vs TB | WR | CIN vs TB | 4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.197 | 0.100 | 750 | OVERO +3.6% | |
| Bauer Sharp TB @ CIN | TE | TB vs CIN | 4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.111 | 0.037 | 2200 | OVERO +3.4% | |
| Joe Burrow CHART CIN vs TB | QB | CIN vs TB | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.108 | 0.085 | 900 | OVERO -0.2% | |
| Ja'Marr Chase CIN vs TB | WR | CIN vs TB | 1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.546 | 0.425 | 100 | OVERO -0.8% | |
| Tez Johnson TB @ CIN | WR | TB vs CIN | 5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.163 | 0.136 | 525 | OVERO -0.9% | |
| Jalen McMillan TB @ CIN | WR | TB vs CIN | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.208 | 0.177 | 380 | OVERO -1.4% | |
| Erick All CIN vs TB | TE | CIN vs TB | 3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.086 | 0.085 | 900 | OVERO -1.4% | |
| Ted Hurst III TB @ CIN | WR | TB vs CIN | 4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.172 | 0.164 | 420 | OVERO -2.4% | |
| Andrei Iosivas CIN vs TB | WR | CIN vs TB | 3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.192 | 0.193 | 340 | OVERO -3.5% | |
| Kameron Johnson TB @ CIN | WR | TB vs CIN | 6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.040 | 0.085 | 900 | OVERO -4.0% | |
| Baker Mayfield TB @ CIN | QB | TB vs CIN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.060 | 0.113 | 650 | OVERO -4.9% | |
| Emeka Egbuka TB @ CIN | WR | TB vs CIN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.235 | 0.258 | 230 | OVERO -5.8% | |
| Kenny Gainwell TB @ CIN | RB | TB vs CIN | 2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.282 | 0.293 | 190 | OVERO -5.8% | |
| Tee Higgins CIN vs TB | WR | CIN vs TB | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.384 | 0.378 | 125 | OVERO -6.3% | |
| Cade Otton TB @ CIN | TE | TB vs CIN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.130 | 0.193 | 340 | OVERO -6.9% | |
| Mike Gesicki CIN vs TB | TE | CIN vs TB | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.106 | 0.189 | 350 | OVERO -7.9% | |
| Chris Godwin Jr. TB @ CIN | WR | TB vs CIN | 2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.223 | 0.284 | 200 | OVERO -8.3% | |
| Samaje Perine CIN vs TB | RB | CIN vs TB | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.098 | 0.203 | 320 | OVERO -9.3% | |
| Bucky Irving TB @ CIN | RB | TB vs CIN | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.273 | 0.347 | 145 | OVERO -10.2% | |
| Chase Brown CIN vs TB | RB | CIN vs TB | 1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.290 | 0.498 | -141 | OVERO -20.1% | |
| Drew Sample CIN vs TB | TE | CIN vs TB | 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.071 | 1100 | |||
| Ko Kieft TB @ CIN | TE | TB vs CIN | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.037 | 2200 | |||
| Payne Durham TB @ CIN | TE | TB vs CIN | 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.061 | 1300 |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.