| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Tgt ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers NYG vs WAS | WR | NYG vs WAS | 1 | 72.7 | 21–132 | 9.0 | 45% |
| Nico Collins HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 1 | 69.5 | 15–136 | 7.2 | 30% |
| Chris Olave NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 1 | 69.0 | 21–125 | 8.7 | 28% |
| Tetairoa McMillan CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 1 | 65.5 | 20–117 | 7.6 | 22% |
| Zay Flowers BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 62.0 | 18–115 | 7.2 | 21% |
| Isaiah Likely NYG vs WAS | TE | NYG vs WAS | 1 | 53.7 | 13–105 | 6.6 | 34% |
| Harold Fannin Jr. CLE vs HOU | TE | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 48.4 | 4–104 | 6.3 | 18% |
| Jalen Coker CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 2 | 47.4 | 0–106 | 5.1 | 15% |
| Denzel Boston CHART CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 45.9 | 0–104 | 5.4 | 33% |
| KC Concepcion CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 2 | 44.4 | 7–88 | 5.6 | 11% |
| Stefon Diggs WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 1 | 40.7 | 9–79 | 5.6 | 20% |
| Devaughn Vele NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 2 | 40.5 | 7–81 | 5.4 | 26% |
| Ladd McConkey CHART LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 38.1 | 4–80 | 4.2 | 20% |
| Malachi Fields NYG vs WAS | WR | NYG vs WAS | 2 | 37.5 | 0–86 | 4.4 | 15% |
| Quentin Johnston LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 36.7 | 3–81 | 4.7 | 14% |
| Antonio Williams WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 2 | 34.3 | 5–70 | 4.7 | 9% |
| Juwan Johnson NO vs CAR | TE | NO vs CAR | 1 | 34.1 | 0–77 | 4.5 | 34% |
| Oronde Gadsden II LAC @ BAL | TE | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 33.8 | 0–73 | 4.0 | 31% |
| Dalton Schultz HOU @ CLE | TE | HOU vs CLE | 1 | 32.5 | 8–62 | 4.8 | 17% |
| Tre Harris LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 31.3 | 0–71 | 3.9 | 9% |
| Jerry Jeudy CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 3 | 29.6 | 0–67 | 3.7 | 7% |
| Chig Okonkwo WAS @ NYG | TE | WAS vs NYG | 1 | 28.8 | 5–60 | 4.6 | 7% |
| Treylon Burks WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 3 | 27.8 | 0–69 | 4.0 | 17% |
| Mark Andrews BAL vs LAC | TE | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 27.2 | 0–58 | 3.8 | 24% |
| Dylan Sampson CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 2 | 26.1 | 2–56 | 3.9 | 13% |
| Jaylin Noel HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 7 | 25.7 | 0–61 | 2.9 | 17% |
| Darren Waller CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 2 | 25.1 | 0–60 | 3.1 | 14% |
| Rashod Bateman BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 24.4 | 0–54 | 3.1 | 21% |
| Xavier Hutchinson HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 3 | 23.6 | 0–55 | 3.7 | 8% |
| Charlie Kolar CHART LAC @ BAL | TE | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 23.1 | 0–58 | 2.8 | 10% |
| Ja'Kobi Lane BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 22.7 | 0–53 | 3.2 | 23% |
| Theo Wease Jr. LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 7 | 22.4 | 0–55 | 2.5 | 13% |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 4 | 21.1 | 0–51 | 3.0 | 15% |
| Darnell Mooney NYG vs WAS | WR | NYG vs WAS | 3 | 20.8 | 0–54 | 2.6 | 7% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 2 | 20.1 | 0–48 | 2.8 | 14% |
| Kayshon Boutte HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 5 | 19.4 | 0–50 | 2.3 | 10% |
| John Metchie III CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 3 | 19.1 | 0–43 | 2.9 | 14% |
| Theo Johnson NYG vs WAS | TE | NYG vs WAS | 2 | 18.7 | 0–45 | 2.5 | 14% |
| Chuba Hubbard CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 1 | 18.4 | 0–47 | 3.5 | 52% |
| Justice Hill BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 18.2 | 0–48 | 3.2 | 11% |
| Alvin Kamara CHART NO vs CAR | RB | NO vs CAR | 1 | 18.1 | 0–42 | 3.4 | 24% |
| Bryce Lance NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 3 | 18.0 | 0–43 | 2.8 | 20% |
| Tommy Tremble CHART CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 1 | 17.4 | 0–43 | 2.5 | 13% |
| Rachaad White CHART WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 1 | 16.4 | 0–40 | 2.9 | 36% |
| Josh Cuevas BAL vs LAC | TE | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 14.1 | 0–38 | 1.9 | 13% |
| Mitchell Evans CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 3 | 13.9 | 0–35 | 1.8 | 17% |
| Quinshon Judkins CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 13.8 | 0–39 | 2.3 | 45% |
| Omarion Hampton LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 13.7 | 0–36 | 2.4 | 17% |
| Kimani Vidal LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 13.2 | 0–36 | 2.3 | 26% |
| Noah Fant NO vs CAR | TE | NO vs CAR | 2 | 13.1 | 0–36 | 1.8 | 11% |
| Cam Skattebo NYG vs WAS | RB | NYG vs WAS | 1 | 12.4 | 0–35 | 1.9 | 19% |
| Keaton Mitchell LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 12.2 | 0–32 | 2.0 | 8% |
| Elijah Sarratt BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 6 | 12.2 | 0–34 | 1.6 | |
| Woody Marks HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 1 | 12.1 | 0–32 | 2.2 | 35% |
| Brycen Tremayne CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 4 | 12.0 | 0–34 | 1.4 | 10% |
| Barion Brown NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 4 | 11.7 | 0–38 | 1.4 | 5% |
| Devin Singletary NYG vs WAS | RB | NYG vs WAS | 2 | 11.2 | 0–32 | 1.8 | 20% |
| Kendre Miller NO vs CAR | RB | NO vs CAR | 2 | 10.9 | 0–32 | 1.9 | 16% |
| Derrick Henry BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 10.8 | 0–28 | 1.8 | 33% |
| Dyami Brown WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 4 | 10.6 | 0–34 | 1.6 | 3% |
| Foster Moreau HOU @ CLE | TE | HOU vs CLE | 2 | 10.3 | 0–32 | 1.4 | 15% |
| Brenen Thompson LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 5 | 10.1 | 0–29 | 1.3 | |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG vs WAS | RB | NYG vs WAS | 4 | 9.9 | 0–28 | 1.7 | 20% |
| Charlie Jones NYG vs WAS | WR | NYG vs WAS | 4 | 9.8 | 0–30 | 1.1 | 3% |
| Isaiah Bond CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 6 | 9.6 | 0–33 | 1.2 | |
| Austin Ekeler WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 2 | 9.3 | 0–26 | 1.6 | 29% |
| Devontez Walker BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 4 | 8.9 | 0–32 | 1.1 | |
| Matthew Hibner BAL vs LAC | TE | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 8.4 | 0–24 | 1.1 | 7% |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 5 | 8.2 | 0–24 | 1.1 | |
| Jaleel McLaughlin CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 3 | 8.1 | 0–23 | 1.7 | 22% |
| David Moore CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 5 | 7.7 | 0–23 | 1.0 | |
| David Montgomery HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 2 | 7.4 | 0–24 | 1.1 | 27% |
| Ja'Seem Reed CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 6.9 | 0–23 | 0.9 | 9% | |
| Oscar Delp NO vs CAR | TE | NO vs CAR | 3 | 6.8 | 0–22 | 1.0 | |
| Thomas Fidone II NYG vs WAS | TE | NYG vs WAS | 4 | 6.7 | 0–22 | 0.8 | |
| Jawhar Jordan HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 6.2 | 0–17 | 1.2 | 10% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt CHART WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 4 | 6.0 | 0–19 | 1.2 | 40% |
| Audric Estimé CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 6.0 | 0–19 | 1.0 | 16% | |
| Van Jefferson WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 5 | 5.8 | 0–19 | 0.9 | |
| Jaylin Lane WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 8 | 5.5 | 0–19 | 0.8 | |
| Cedric Tillman NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 5.5 | 0–19 | 0.8 | 5% | |
| Jalen Cropper NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 5.4 | 0–18 | 0.7 | ||
| Adam Randall BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 4 | 5.1 | 0–16 | 1.0 | 13% |
| John Bates WAS @ NYG | TE | WAS vs NYG | 3 | 5.1 | 0–17 | 0.9 | |
| Cade Stover HOU @ CLE | TE | HOU vs CLE | 3 | 5.0 | 0–17 | 0.8 | 14% |
| AJ Dillon CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 4 | 5.0 | 0–18 | 0.8 | |
| Trevor Etienne CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 2 | 4.9 | 0–16 | 0.8 | |
| CJ Donaldson NO vs CAR | RB | NO vs CAR | 3 | 4.9 | 0–16 | 1.0 | 8% |
| Lewis Bond HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 4.9 | 0–17 | 0.7 | ||
| Malachi Corley CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 5 | 4.8 | 0–18 | 0.6 | |
| Jeremy McNichols WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 3 | 4.6 | 0–14 | 0.9 | 7% |
| Blake Whiteheart CLE vs HOU | TE | CLE vs HOU | 2 | 4.5 | 0–16 | 0.6 | 6% |
| LaJohntay Wester BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 5 | 4.5 | 0–16 | 0.6 | |
| Luke McCaffrey WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 6 | 4.5 | 0–15 | 0.6 | |
| Anthony Tyus III CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 3 | 4.3 | 0–14 | 0.7 | 13% |
| Brevin Jordan HOU @ CLE | TE | HOU vs CLE | 4 | 4.2 | 0–15 | 0.6 | |
| Marlin Klein HOU @ CLE | TE | HOU vs CLE | 5 | 4.1 | 0–15 | 0.6 | |
| Tylan Wallace CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 4 | 4.1 | 0–15 | 0.5 | |
| Patrick Herbert LAC @ BAL | TE | LAC vs BAL | 4.0 | 0–14 | 0.6 | ||
| Jalin Hyatt NYG vs WAS | WR | NYG vs WAS | 3.9 | 0–13 | 0.5 | ||
| Derius Davis LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 6 | 3.8 | 0–14 | 0.5 | |
| Carsen Ryan CLE vs HOU | TE | CLE vs HOU | 3.8 | 0–14 | 0.5 | ||
| Rasheen Ali BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 3.2 | 0–11 | 0.6 | 11% |
| Ben Sinnott WAS @ NYG | TE | WAS vs NYG | 2 | 3.2 | 0–11 | 0.5 | |
| Dalen Cambre NYG vs WAS | WR | NYG vs WAS | 3.2 | 0–12 | 0.4 | ||
| Hayden Rucci LAC @ BAL | TE | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 3.1 | 0–11 | 0.4 | |
| Nick Vannett BAL vs LAC | TE | BAL vs LAC | 4 | 2.9 | 0–10 | 0.4 | |
| Treyton Welch NO vs CAR | TE | NO vs CAR | 4 | 2.8 | 0–11 | 0.4 | |
| Dare Ogunbowale HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 4 | 2.5 | 0–10 | 0.4 | |
| Craig Reynolds WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 2.5 | 0–9 | 0.4 | 4% | |
| Scott Matlock LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 2.4 | 0–9 | 0.4 | 9% | |
| Michael Burton CLE vs HOU | FB | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 2.3 | 0–8 | 0.3 | |
| Feleipe Franks CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 4 | 2.3 | 0–9 | 0.3 | |
| Chris Manhertz NYG vs WAS | TE | NYG vs WAS | 3 | 2.2 | 0–9 | 0.3 | |
| Colson Yankoff WAS @ NYG | TE | WAS vs NYG | 4 | 2.1 | 0–8 | 0.3 | |
| Patrick Ricard NYG vs WAS | RB | NYG vs WAS | 1.8 | 0–5 | 0.3 | 4% | |
| Justin Herbert LAC @ BAL | QB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 32% |
| Jake Haener NYG vs WAS | QB | NYG vs WAS | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 7% |
| Zach Wilson NO vs CAR | QB | NO vs CAR | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 10% |
| Davis Mills HOU @ CLE | QB | HOU vs CLE | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 8% |
| Dillon Gabriel CLE vs HOU | QB | CLE vs HOU | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 7% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PIT, SEA, SF, TEN, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →