| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Car ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 93.3 | 37–162 | 18.0 | 33% |
| Bijan Robinson ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 1 | 81.8 | 43–128 | 18.6 | 27% |
| Jonathan Taylor IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 1 | 80.3 | 30–143 | 17.1 | 32% |
| Kenneth Walker III KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 1 | 78.5 | 34–130 | 17.2 | 51% |
| Chuba Hubbard CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 1 | 77.7 | 39–122 | 16.4 | 52% |
| Ollie Gordon II MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 1 | 64.0 | 17–123 | 15.6 | 26% |
| Kendre Miller NO vs CAR | RB | NO vs CAR | 2 | 40.6 | 10–77 | 9.8 | 16% |
| Omarion Hampton LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 36.4 | 8–73 | 9.6 | 17% |
| Kimani Vidal LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 30.6 | 6–64 | 7.9 | 26% |
| Seth McGowan IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 2 | 30.0 | 5–62 | 6.9 | 10% |
| Alvin Kamara CHART NO vs CAR | RB | NO vs CAR | 1 | 28.8 | 9–52 | 6.7 | 24% |
| Justin Herbert LAC @ BAL | QB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 24.9 | 4–52 | 4.2 | 32% |
| Malik Willis MIA @ IND | QB | MIA vs IND | 1 | 24.7 | 1–56 | 3.7 | 19% |
| Lamar Jackson BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 23.3 | 0–55 | 3.4 | 12% |
| Brian Robinson ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 2 | 21.2 | 1–48 | 5.5 | 31% |
| Justice Hill BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 20.1 | 2–45 | 4.1 | 11% |
| DJ Giddens IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 3 | 19.6 | 3–38 | 4.6 | 14% |
| Patrick Mahomes KC @ ATL | QB | KC vs ATL | 1 | 19.5 | 1–41 | 2.7 | 12% |
| Kyle McCord MIA @ IND | QB | MIA vs IND | 2 | 18.8 | 1–41 | 3.1 | 16% |
| Justin Fields KC @ ATL | QB | KC vs ATL | 2 | 18.7 | 1–40 | 3.2 | 12% |
| Jaylen Wright MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 2 | 18.6 | 2–40 | 4.6 | |
| Keaton Mitchell LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 18.3 | 0–48 | 3.7 | 8% |
| CJ Donaldson NO vs CAR | RB | NO vs CAR | 3 | 18.1 | 2–39 | 3.7 | 8% |
| Tyler Huntley BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 17.8 | 0–44 | 2.9 | 13% |
| Joe Fagnano BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 17.8 | 1–39 | 3.1 | 17% |
| AJ Dillon CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 4 | 17.6 | 3–34 | 4.4 | |
| Kaytron Allen MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 3 | 17.1 | 2–36 | 3.9 | 13% |
| Tyler Shough NO vs CAR | QB | NO vs CAR | 1 | 17.0 | 0–41 | 2.9 | 20% |
| Emmett Johnson KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 2 | 16.5 | 0–39 | 3.8 | 9% |
| Garrett Nussmeier KC @ ATL | QB | KC vs ATL | 3 | 16.4 | 1–37 | 2.9 | 13% |
| Anthony Richardson IND vs MIA | QB | IND vs MIA | 2 | 16.1 | 0–36 | 2.7 | 20% |
| Khalil Herbert ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 14.8 | 2–32 | 3.8 | 20% | |
| Haynes King CAR @ NO | QB | CAR vs NO | 3 | 14.8 | 0–34 | 2.4 | 13% |
| Adam Randall BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 4 | 13.8 | 0–30 | 3.1 | 13% |
| Daniel Jones IND vs MIA | QB | IND vs MIA | 1 | 13.2 | 0–31 | 2.7 | 14% |
| Trevor Etienne CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 2 | 13.2 | 0–31 | 2.9 | |
| Anthony Tyus III CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 3 | 13.0 | 0–30 | 2.7 | 13% |
| Jaydn Ott KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 3 | 12.6 | 0–28 | 2.9 | 10% |
| DJ Uiagalelei LAC @ BAL | QB | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 12.5 | 0–28 | 2.4 | 14% |
| Jack Strand ATL vs KC | QB | ATL vs KC | 4 | 12.3 | 0–28 | 2.4 | 13% |
| Rasheen Ali BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 11.7 | 0–26 | 2.7 | 11% |
| Bryce Young CAR @ NO | QB | CAR vs NO | 1 | 9.7 | 0–26 | 1.4 | 10% |
| Carlos Washington MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 8.4 | 0–21 | 1.8 | 8% | |
| Michael Penix Jr. ATL vs KC | QB | ATL vs KC | 1 | 8.3 | 0–25 | 1.8 | 11% |
| Spencer Rattler NO vs CAR | QB | NO vs CAR | 2 | 8.3 | 0–22 | 1.2 | 6% |
| DJ Herman MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 8.1 | 0–20 | 1.8 | 8% | |
| Zach Wilson NO vs CAR | QB | NO vs CAR | 3 | 8.0 | 0–22 | 1.2 | 10% |
| Kenny Pickett CAR @ NO | QB | CAR vs NO | 2 | 7.7 | 0–21 | 1.4 | 8% |
| Malik Washington CHART MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 1 | 6.6 | 0–19 | 1.1 | 18% |
| Riley Leonard IND vs MIA | QB | IND vs MIA | 3 | 6.2 | 0–18 | 1.1 | 10% |
| Ben VanSumeren KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 6.1 | 0–16 | 1.4 | 9% | |
| Andy Dalton ATL vs KC | QB | ATL vs KC | 3 | 4.0 | 0–13 | 0.8 | |
| Scott Matlock LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 3.7 | 0–10 | 0.9 | 9% | |
| Tua Tagovailoa ATL vs KC | QB | ATL vs KC | 2 | 3.4 | 0–11 | 0.8 | 6% |
| Chris Bell MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 3 | 2.5 | 0–10 | 0.4 | 9% |
| Ashton Dulin IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 4 | 2.2 | 0–9 | 0.3 | |
| Derius Davis LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 6 | 1.7 | 0–6 | 0.3 | |
| Zay Flowers BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 1.6 | 0–5 | 0.3 | 21% |
| Zachariah Branch ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 4 | 1.5 | 0–5 | 0.3 | |
| Barion Brown NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 4 | 1.2 | 0–1 | 0.2 | 5% |
| Tyler Warren IND vs MIA | TE | IND vs MIA | 1 | 1.2 | 0–4 | 0.5 | 33% |
| Deion Burks IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 5 | 1.1 | 0–2 | 0.2 | |
| Charlie Woerner ATL vs KC | TE | ATL vs KC | 2 | 1.0 | 0–2 | 0.3 | 10% |
| Quentin Johnston LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 0.8 | 0–0 | 0.2 | 14% |
| Xavier Worthy KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 2 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 15% |
| Drake London ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 1 | 0.5 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 16% |
| Rashee Rice KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 1 | 0.5 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 29% |
| Josh Downs CHART IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 1 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 18% |
| David Moore CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 5 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Nikko Remigio KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 6 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Oronde Gadsden II LAC @ BAL | TE | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 31% |
| Mark Andrews BAL vs LAC | TE | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 24% |
| Mitchell Evans CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 3 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 17% |
| Feleipe Franks CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 4 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Olamide Zaccheaus ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 16% |
| John Metchie III CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 14% |
| Tre Harris LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 9% |
| Chris Olave NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 28% |
| Darren Waller CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 2 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 14% |
| Travis Kelce KC @ ATL | TE | KC vs ATL | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 13% |
| Greg Dulcich MIA @ IND | TE | MIA vs IND | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 26% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PIT, SEA, SF, TEN, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →