| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Tgt ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 1 | 6.3 | 3–10 | 9.4 | 35% |
| Justin Jefferson MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 1 | 5.5 | 2–9 | 8.5 | 44% |
| George Kittle SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 1 | 5.4 | 2–10 | 7.0 | 34% |
| Rashee Rice KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 1 | 5.2 | 2–9 | 7.2 | 29% |
| Drake London ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 1 | 5.0 | 2–8 | 8.0 | 16% |
| Tyler Warren IND vs MIA | TE | IND vs MIA | 1 | 4.8 | 2–9 | 7.0 | 33% |
| Nico Collins HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 1 | 4.8 | 2–9 | 7.2 | 30% |
| Christian McCaffrey SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 4.7 | 1–9 | 5.9 | 39% |
| George Pickens DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 2 | 4.5 | 1–8 | 7.2 | 23% |
| Tucker Kraft GB vs MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 1 | 4.4 | 2–7 | 6.1 | 31% |
| Harold Fannin Jr. CLE vs HOU | TE | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 4.4 | 1–9 | 6.3 | 18% |
| Matthew Golden GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 2 | 4.2 | 1–8 | 7.1 | 22% |
| T.J. Hockenson MIN @ GB | TE | MIN vs GB | 1 | 4.2 | 2–7 | 5.6 | 27% |
| Travis Kelce KC @ ATL | TE | KC vs ATL | 1 | 4.1 | 1–7 | 5.7 | 13% |
| Keenan Allen IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 2 | 3.9 | 1–7 | 6.0 | 16% |
| Christian Watson CHART GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 1 | 3.9 | 1–7 | 6.5 | 24% |
| Mike Evans SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 1 | 3.6 | 1–6 | 6.0 | 24% |
| KC Concepcion CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 2 | 3.6 | 1–6 | 5.6 | 11% |
| Malik Washington CHART MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 1 | 3.5 | 1–7 | 5.1 | 18% |
| Kyle Pitts ATL vs KC | TE | ATL vs KC | 1 | 3.5 | 1–6 | 5.1 | 24% |
| Dalton Schultz HOU @ CLE | TE | HOU vs CLE | 1 | 3.4 | 1–6 | 4.8 | 17% |
| Ryan Flournoy DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 3 | 3.4 | 1–6 | 4.9 | 22% |
| Caleb Douglas MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 2 | 3.3 | 1–6 | 5.2 | 36% |
| Greg Dulcich MIA @ IND | TE | MIA vs IND | 1 | 3.3 | 1–6 | 4.5 | 26% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 2 | 3.2 | 1–6 | 4.8 | 27% |
| Jordan Addison MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 2 | 3.1 | 1–6 | 5.3 | 17% |
| Dylan Sampson CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 2 | 3.1 | 1–6 | 3.9 | 13% |
| Denzel Boston CHART CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 3.1 | 0–6 | 5.4 | 33% |
| Bijan Robinson ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 1 | 3.1 | 1–6 | 4.1 | 27% |
| Xavier Worthy KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 2 | 3.0 | 1–5 | 4.9 | 15% |
| Josh Downs CHART IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 1 | 3.0 | 1–6 | 4.6 | 18% |
| Josh Jacobs GB vs MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 1 | 3.0 | 1–5 | 3.8 | 56% |
| Kenneth Walker III KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 1 | 2.4 | 0–5 | 3.0 | 51% |
| Jonathan Taylor IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 1 | 2.3 | 0–4 | 3.0 | 32% |
| Emmett Johnson KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 2 | 2.3 | 0–5 | 2.9 | 9% |
| Jauan Jennings MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 3 | 2.2 | 0–4 | 3.4 | 11% |
| Jerry Jeudy CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 3 | 2.2 | 0–4 | 3.7 | 7% |
| Aaron Jones MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 2 | 2.1 | 0–5 | 2.8 | 36% |
| Chris Bell MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 3 | 2.1 | 0–4 | 3.6 | 9% |
| Savion Williams GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 3 | 2.1 | 0–4 | 2.9 | 8% |
| Jake Ferguson DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 1 | 2.1 | 0–5 | 2.9 | 18% |
| Noah Gray KC @ ATL | TE | KC vs ATL | 2 | 2.1 | 0–4 | 2.9 | 16% |
| Xavier Hutchinson HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 3 | 2.1 | 0–4 | 3.7 | 8% |
| Jaylin Noel HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 7 | 2.1 | 0–4 | 2.9 | 17% |
| Jahan Dotson ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 2 | 2.0 | 0–4 | 3.5 | 18% |
| Javonte Williams DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 1 | 2.0 | 0–5 | 2.6 | 44% |
| Laquon Treadwell IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 3 | 1.9 | 0–4 | 3.2 | 17% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 2 | 1.9 | 0–4 | 2.7 | 7% |
| Quinshon Judkins CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 1.8 | 0–4 | 2.3 | 45% |
| Woody Marks HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 1 | 1.7 | 0–4 | 2.2 | 35% |
| Ollie Gordon II MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 1 | 1.6 | 0–4 | 2.1 | 26% |
| Jordan Watkins SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 3 | 1.5 | 0–4 | 2.4 | 5% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 2 | 1.5 | 0–3 | 2.8 | 14% |
| Brandon Aiyuk SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 10 | 1.5 | 0–3 | 2.3 | 10% |
| Kayshon Boutte HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 5 | 1.4 | 0–3 | 2.3 | 10% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 3 | 1.4 | 0–3 | 1.7 | 22% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 3 | 1.3 | 0–3 | 2.2 | 16% |
| Cyrus Allen KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 3 | 1.3 | 0–3 | 2.1 | |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 4 | 1.3 | 0–3 | 2.2 | 21% |
| Kyle Juszczyk SF @ DAL | FB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 1.2 | 0–3 | 1.6 | 15% |
| Austin Hooper ATL vs KC | TE | ATL vs KC | 3 | 1.2 | 0–3 | 1.6 | 15% |
| MarShawn Lloyd GB vs MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 2 | 1.1 | 0–3 | 1.5 | 23% |
| Brandin Cooks SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 4 | 1.1 | 0–3 | 1.8 | 9% |
| Jacob Cowing SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 6 | 1.1 | 0–3 | 1.8 | |
| Kaelon Black SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 2 | 1.1 | 0–3 | 1.4 | 11% |
| Charlie Woerner ATL vs KC | TE | ATL vs KC | 2 | 1.1 | 0–3 | 1.5 | 10% |
| Pierre Strong GB vs MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 3 | 1.0 | 0–3 | 1.4 | 4% |
| Foster Moreau HOU @ CLE | TE | HOU vs CLE | 2 | 1.0 | 0–3 | 1.4 | 15% |
| Jalen Royals KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 4 | 1.0 | 0–3 | 1.6 | 8% |
| David Montgomery HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 2 | 1.0 | 0–3 | 1.1 | 27% |
| Jordan Mason MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 1 | 1.0 | 0–2 | 1.2 | 15% |
| Will Mallory IND vs MIA | TE | IND vs MIA | 2 | 1.0 | 0–3 | 1.4 | 8% |
| Zachariah Branch ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 4 | 1.0 | 0–2 | 1.5 | |
| Brian Robinson ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 2 | 1.0 | 0–2 | 1.2 | 31% |
| Jawhar Jordan HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.2 | 10% | |
| Andrew Armstrong KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 5 | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.5 | 12% |
| Gavin Bartholomew MIN @ GB | TE | MIN vs GB | 2 | 0.9 | 0–3 | 1.2 | |
| KaVontae Turpin DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 4 | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.4 | 7% |
| Khalil Herbert ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.2 | 20% | |
| Jonnu Smith GB vs MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 4 | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.2 | 5% |
| Seth McGowan IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 2 | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.1 | 10% |
| Deion Burks IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 5 | 0.8 | 0–2 | 1.3 | |
| Audric Estimé CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 0.8 | 0–2 | 1.0 | 16% | |
| Jaydn Ott KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 3 | 0.8 | 0–2 | 1.0 | 10% |
| Will Kacmarek MIA @ IND | TE | MIA vs IND | 2 | 0.8 | 0–2 | 1.1 | |
| Tyler Goodson DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 0.8 | 0–2 | 1.0 | 9% |
| Ben Yurosek MIN @ GB | TE | MIN vs GB | 3 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.0 | |
| Jared Wayne MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 6 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.2 | |
| Mo Alie-Cox IND vs MIA | TE | IND vs MIA | 3 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.1 | 14% |
| Christian Kirk SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 5 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.1 | 5% |
| DJ Herman MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 0.7 | 0–2 | 0.9 | 8% | |
| Bo Melton GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 4 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.2 | |
| Justin Joly MIA @ IND | TE | MIA vs IND | 4 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.0 | 6% |
| Dillon Bell MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.1 | 6% | |
| Jalen Tolbert MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 5 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.1 | 10% |
| Mark Redman GB vs MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 2 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 0.9 | 3% |
| Isaiah Bond CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 6 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 1.2 | |
| Nick Muse ATL vs KC | TE | ATL vs KC | 4 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.8 | 11% |
| Kenneth Harris IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 0.6 | 0–2 | 1.0 | ||
| James Thompson SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 0.6 | 0–2 | 1.0 | ||
| Jordan James SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 3 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.7 | 6% |
| Cade Stover HOU @ CLE | TE | HOU vs CLE | 3 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.8 | 14% |
| Ashton Dulin IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 4 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 1.0 | |
| Jeshaun Jones MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.9 | ||
| J. Michael Sturdivant GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 5 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.9 | |
| Jonathan Mingo DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 5 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 1.1 | 5% |
| Coleman Owen GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 6 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.9 | 4% |
| Andrew Ogletree IND vs MIA | TE | IND vs MIA | 4 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.8 | 11% |
| Demond Claiborne MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 3 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.7 | 6% |
| DeeJay Dallas MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.7 | ||
| Tai Felton MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 4 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.9 | |
| Max Bredeson MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.7 | 6% | |
| Hunter Luepke DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.6 | 7% | |
| Kaytron Allen MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 3 | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.7 | 13% |
| Odell Beckham Jr. MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.8 | ||
| Luke Farrell SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 2 | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Beaux Collins ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 6 | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.8 | |
| Luke Schoonmaker DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 3 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.7 | |
| Myles Price MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 5 | 0.4 | 0–2 | 0.7 | 6% |
| Blake Whiteheart CLE vs HOU | TE | CLE vs HOU | 2 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | 6% |
| DJ Giddens IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 3 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | 14% |
| Carlos Washington MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | 8% | |
| Chris Blair ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 5 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.7 | |
| Seydou Traore MIA @ IND | TE | MIA vs IND | 3 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Marlin Klein HOU @ CLE | TE | HOU vs CLE | 5 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Malachi Corley CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 5 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Brevin Jordan HOU @ CLE | TE | HOU vs CLE | 4 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Lewis Bond HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.7 | ||
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.7 | ||
| Jake Briningstool KC @ ATL | TE | KC vs ATL | 3 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Jaylen Wright MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 2 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Justin Watson KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | ||
| Kaleb Johnson GB vs MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 4 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | 5% |
| Ben VanSumeren KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | 9% | |
| Carsen Ryan CLE vs HOU | TE | CLE vs HOU | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | ||
| James Mitchell DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | ||
| Dare Ogunbowale HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 4 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.4 | |
| Camden Brown DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 6 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.5 | 3% |
| Pharaoh Brown IND vs MIA | TE | IND vs MIA | 5 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.4 | |
| Josh Whyle GB vs MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 3 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.4 | |
| Tylan Wallace CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 4 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.5 | |
| Jack Stoll SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.4 | ||
| Michael Burton CLE vs HOU | FB | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Anthony Gould IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 6 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.4 | |
| Jared Wiley KC @ ATL | TE | KC vs ATL | 4 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Nikko Remigio KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 6 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Brayden Willis SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 3 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Sam Howell DAL vs SF | QB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 11% |
| Riley Leonard IND vs MIA | QB | IND vs MIA | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 10% |
| Max Brosmer MIN @ GB | QB | MIN vs GB | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 7% |
| Davis Mills HOU @ CLE | QB | HOU vs CLE | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 8% |
| Dillon Gabriel CLE vs HOU | QB | CLE vs HOU | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 7% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PIT, SEA, SF, TEN, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →