| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Car ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 93.3 | 37–162 | 18.0 | 33% |
| Bijan Robinson ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 1 | 81.8 | 43–128 | 18.6 | 27% |
| Jonathan Taylor IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 1 | 80.3 | 30–143 | 17.1 | 32% |
| Kenneth Walker III KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 1 | 78.5 | 34–130 | 17.2 | 51% |
| Ollie Gordon II MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 1 | 64.0 | 17–123 | 15.6 | 26% |
| Josh Jacobs GB vs MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 1 | 58.2 | 28–94 | 14.6 | 56% |
| Jordan Mason MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 1 | 47.0 | 17–83 | 10.0 | 15% |
| Aaron Jones MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 2 | 37.2 | 3–84 | 8.8 | 36% |
| Omarion Hampton LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 36.4 | 8–73 | 9.6 | 17% |
| Kimani Vidal LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 30.6 | 6–64 | 7.9 | 26% |
| Seth McGowan IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 2 | 30.0 | 5–62 | 6.9 | 10% |
| Kyler Murray MIN @ GB | QB | MIN vs GB | 1 | 28.2 | 5–59 | 4.0 | 20% |
| Justin Herbert LAC @ BAL | QB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 24.9 | 4–52 | 4.2 | 32% |
| Malik Willis MIA @ IND | QB | MIA vs IND | 1 | 24.7 | 1–56 | 3.7 | 19% |
| MarShawn Lloyd GB vs MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 2 | 24.4 | 5–49 | 7.1 | 23% |
| Lamar Jackson BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 23.3 | 0–55 | 3.4 | 12% |
| Brian Robinson ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 2 | 21.2 | 1–48 | 5.5 | 31% |
| Justice Hill BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 20.1 | 2–45 | 4.1 | 11% |
| DJ Giddens IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 3 | 19.6 | 3–38 | 4.6 | 14% |
| Patrick Mahomes KC @ ATL | QB | KC vs ATL | 1 | 19.5 | 1–41 | 2.7 | 12% |
| Kyle McCord MIA @ IND | QB | MIA vs IND | 2 | 18.8 | 1–41 | 3.1 | 16% |
| Justin Fields KC @ ATL | QB | KC vs ATL | 2 | 18.7 | 1–40 | 3.2 | 12% |
| Jaylen Wright MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 2 | 18.6 | 2–40 | 4.6 | |
| Keaton Mitchell LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 18.3 | 0–48 | 3.7 | 8% |
| Tyler Huntley BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 17.8 | 0–44 | 2.9 | 13% |
| Joe Fagnano BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 17.8 | 1–39 | 3.1 | 17% |
| Kaytron Allen MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 3 | 17.1 | 2–36 | 3.9 | 13% |
| Kaleb Johnson GB vs MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 4 | 16.8 | 0–39 | 4.4 | 5% |
| Emmett Johnson KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 2 | 16.5 | 0–39 | 3.8 | 9% |
| Garrett Nussmeier KC @ ATL | QB | KC vs ATL | 3 | 16.4 | 1–37 | 2.9 | 13% |
| Anthony Richardson IND vs MIA | QB | IND vs MIA | 2 | 16.1 | 0–36 | 2.7 | 20% |
| Khalil Herbert ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 14.8 | 2–32 | 3.8 | 20% | |
| Adam Randall BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 4 | 13.8 | 0–30 | 3.1 | 13% |
| Daniel Jones IND vs MIA | QB | IND vs MIA | 1 | 13.2 | 0–31 | 2.7 | 14% |
| Jaydn Ott KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 3 | 12.6 | 0–28 | 2.9 | 10% |
| DJ Uiagalelei LAC @ BAL | QB | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 12.5 | 0–28 | 2.4 | 14% |
| Jack Strand ATL vs KC | QB | ATL vs KC | 4 | 12.3 | 0–28 | 2.4 | 13% |
| Demond Claiborne MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 3 | 11.9 | 0–27 | 3.0 | 6% |
| Rasheen Ali BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 11.7 | 0–26 | 2.7 | 11% |
| Carson Wentz MIN @ GB | QB | MIN vs GB | 2 | 10.8 | 0–27 | 2.2 | 10% |
| Pierre Strong GB vs MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 3 | 9.5 | 0–29 | 2.2 | 4% |
| Tyrod Taylor GB vs MIN | QB | GB vs MIN | 2 | 9.4 | 0–23 | 1.7 | 7% |
| Carlos Washington MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 8.4 | 0–21 | 1.8 | 8% | |
| Michael Penix Jr. ATL vs KC | QB | ATL vs KC | 1 | 8.3 | 0–25 | 1.8 | 11% |
| Jordan Love GB vs MIN | QB | GB vs MIN | 1 | 8.3 | 0–25 | 1.4 | 8% |
| DJ Herman MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 8.1 | 0–20 | 1.8 | 8% | |
| Savion Williams GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 3 | 7.6 | 0–21 | 1.4 | 8% |
| Malik Washington CHART MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 1 | 6.6 | 0–19 | 1.1 | 18% |
| Max Brosmer MIN @ GB | QB | MIN vs GB | 3 | 6.6 | 0–19 | 1.2 | 7% |
| Riley Leonard IND vs MIA | QB | IND vs MIA | 3 | 6.2 | 0–18 | 1.1 | 10% |
| Ben VanSumeren KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 6.1 | 0–16 | 1.4 | 9% | |
| DeeJay Dallas MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 6.0 | 0–17 | 1.4 | ||
| Max Bredeson MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 5.0 | 0–14 | 1.2 | 6% | |
| Andy Dalton ATL vs KC | QB | ATL vs KC | 3 | 4.0 | 0–13 | 0.8 | |
| Scott Matlock LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 3.7 | 0–10 | 0.9 | 9% | |
| Tua Tagovailoa ATL vs KC | QB | ATL vs KC | 2 | 3.4 | 0–11 | 0.8 | 6% |
| Chris Bell MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 3 | 2.5 | 0–10 | 0.4 | 9% |
| Jordan Addison MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 2 | 2.4 | 0–8 | 0.4 | 17% |
| Ashton Dulin IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 4 | 2.2 | 0–9 | 0.3 | |
| Derius Davis LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 6 | 1.7 | 0–6 | 0.3 | |
| Zay Flowers BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 1.6 | 0–5 | 0.3 | 21% |
| Zachariah Branch ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 4 | 1.5 | 0–5 | 0.3 | |
| Tyler Warren IND vs MIA | TE | IND vs MIA | 1 | 1.2 | 0–4 | 0.5 | 33% |
| Deion Burks IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 5 | 1.1 | 0–2 | 0.2 | |
| Charlie Woerner ATL vs KC | TE | ATL vs KC | 2 | 1.0 | 0–2 | 0.3 | 10% |
| Quentin Johnston LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 0.8 | 0–0 | 0.2 | 14% |
| Matthew Golden GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 2 | 0.8 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 22% |
| Xavier Worthy KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 2 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 15% |
| Drake London ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 1 | 0.5 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 16% |
| Rashee Rice KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 1 | 0.5 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 29% |
| Tucker Kraft GB vs MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 1 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 31% |
| Justin Jefferson MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 1 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 44% |
| Josh Downs CHART IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 1 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 18% |
| Myles Price MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 5 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 6% |
| Nikko Remigio KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 6 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Jonnu Smith GB vs MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 4 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 5% |
| Oronde Gadsden II LAC @ BAL | TE | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 31% |
| Mark Andrews BAL vs LAC | TE | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 24% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 16% |
| Tre Harris LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 9% |
| Christian Watson CHART GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 24% |
| Travis Kelce KC @ ATL | TE | KC vs ATL | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 13% |
| Greg Dulcich MIA @ IND | TE | MIA vs IND | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 26% |
| T.J. Hockenson MIN @ GB | TE | MIN vs GB | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 27% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PIT, SEA, SF, TEN, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →