| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Car ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 93.3 | 37–162 | 18.0 | 33% |
| Jaylen Warren PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 1 | 81.4 | 38–131 | 16.1 | 28% |
| Christian McCaffrey SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 76.1 | 37–122 | 14.7 | 39% |
| Kyren Williams LA @ ARI | RB | LA vs ARI | 1 | 69.5 | 34–110 | 14.5 | 45% |
| Javonte Williams DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 1 | 62.5 | 23–110 | 17.5 | 44% |
| Blake Corum LA @ ARI | RB | LA vs ARI | 2 | 53.5 | 15–98 | 11.1 | 30% |
| Chase Brown CIN vs PIT | RB | CIN vs PIT | 1 | 47.1 | 20–80 | 13.1 | 21% |
| Kaelon Black SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 2 | 45.1 | 15–82 | 9.4 | 11% |
| Rico Dowdle PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 41.2 | 15–72 | 9.1 | 14% |
| Omarion Hampton LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 36.4 | 8–73 | 9.6 | 17% |
| Tyler Allgeier ARI vs LA | RB | ARI vs LA | 2 | 36.3 | 14–63 | 9.2 | 26% |
| Jeremiyah Love ARI vs LA | RB | ARI vs LA | 1 | 35.4 | 12–63 | 9.4 | 21% |
| Kimani Vidal LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 30.6 | 6–64 | 7.9 | 26% |
| Bam Knight ARI vs LA | RB | ARI vs LA | 3 | 25.0 | 6–48 | 6.3 | 17% |
| Justin Herbert LAC @ BAL | QB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 24.9 | 4–52 | 4.2 | 32% |
| Lamar Jackson BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 23.3 | 0–55 | 3.4 | 12% |
| Brock Purdy CHART SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 20.7 | 2–44 | 3.3 | 17% |
| Justice Hill BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 20.1 | 2–45 | 4.1 | 11% |
| Samaje Perine CIN vs PIT | RB | CIN vs PIT | 2 | 18.7 | 3–38 | 5.0 | 9% |
| Keaton Mitchell LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 18.3 | 0–48 | 3.7 | 8% |
| Tyler Huntley BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 17.8 | 0–44 | 2.9 | 13% |
| Joe Fagnano BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 17.8 | 1–39 | 3.1 | 17% |
| Jordan James SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 3 | 17.4 | 1–37 | 3.5 | 6% |
| Tyler Goodson DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 17.2 | 0–42 | 4.6 | 9% |
| Kurtis Rourke SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 3 | 15.4 | 0–36 | 2.4 | 11% |
| Ty Simpson LA @ ARI | QB | LA vs ARI | 3 | 14.8 | 0–34 | 2.5 | 12% |
| Will Howard PIT @ CIN | QB | PIT vs CIN | 3 | 14.0 | 0–33 | 2.4 | 14% |
| Adam Randall BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 4 | 13.8 | 0–30 | 3.1 | 13% |
| Jacoby Brissett CHART ARI vs LA | QB | ARI vs LA | 3 | 13.7 | 0–33 | 2.9 | 26% |
| Drew Allar PIT @ CIN | QB | PIT vs CIN | 4 | 13.6 | 0–32 | 2.4 | 14% |
| Carson Beck ARI vs LA | QB | ARI vs LA | 2 | 13.4 | 0–31 | 2.4 | 13% |
| DJ Uiagalelei LAC @ BAL | QB | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 12.5 | 0–28 | 2.4 | 14% |
| Rasheen Ali BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 11.7 | 0–26 | 2.7 | 11% |
| Joe Burrow CHART CIN vs PIT | QB | CIN vs PIT | 1 | 11.3 | 0–27 | 2.4 | 15% |
| Dean Connors LA @ ARI | RB | LA vs ARI | 3 | 11.3 | 0–26 | 2.5 | 10% |
| Stetson Bennett LA @ ARI | QB | LA vs ARI | 2 | 11.2 | 0–28 | 1.9 | 10% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 2 | 11.2 | 0–30 | 2.0 | 27% |
| Dak Prescott DAL vs SF | QB | DAL vs SF | 1 | 10.9 | 0–27 | 2.3 | 17% |
| Evan Hull ARI vs LA | RB | ARI vs LA | 4 | 8.2 | 0–19 | 2.2 | 8% |
| Travis Homer PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 3 | 7.4 | 0–20 | 1.7 | |
| Sam Howell DAL vs SF | QB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 7.1 | 0–19 | 1.4 | 11% |
| Tahj Brooks CIN vs PIT | RB | CIN vs PIT | 3 | 6.8 | 0–16 | 2.0 | 6% |
| Lew Nichols III PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 4 | 6.3 | 0–16 | 1.5 | 7% |
| Josh Johnson CIN vs PIT | QB | CIN vs PIT | 6.3 | 0–17 | 1.3 | 7% | |
| Mac Jones SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 2 | 6.0 | 0–17 | 1.1 | |
| Eli Heidenreich PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 5 | 5.6 | 0–15 | 1.3 | 7% |
| Puka Nacua LA @ ARI | WR | LA vs ARI | 1 | 5.5 | 0–16 | 0.9 | 30% |
| Mason Rudolph PIT @ CIN | QB | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 5.2 | 0–15 | 1.0 | 6% |
| Aaron Rodgers PIT @ CIN | QB | PIT vs CIN | 1 | 5.1 | 0–15 | 0.9 | 7% |
| Gardner Minshew CHART ARI vs LA | QB | ARI vs LA | 1 | 4.4 | 0–14 | 0.9 | |
| Michael Wilson ARI vs LA | WR | ARI vs LA | 1 | 4.4 | 0–17 | 0.8 | 26% |
| Matthew Stafford LA @ ARI | QB | LA vs ARI | 1 | 4.0 | 0–13 | 0.8 | 3% |
| Scott Matlock LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 3.7 | 0–10 | 0.9 | 9% | |
| Joe Flacco CIN vs PIT | QB | CIN vs PIT | 2 | 3.5 | 0–11 | 0.8 | 5% |
| Hunter Luepke DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 3.2 | 0–10 | 0.9 | 7% | |
| Jacob Cowing SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 6 | 2.5 | 0–10 | 0.4 | |
| KaVontae Turpin DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 4 | 2.0 | 0–6 | 0.4 | 7% |
| Derius Davis LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 6 | 1.7 | 0–6 | 0.3 | |
| Zay Flowers BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 1.6 | 0–5 | 0.3 | 21% |
| Pat Freiermuth PIT @ CIN | TE | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 1.5 | 0–3 | 0.4 | 29% |
| Ryan Flournoy DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 3 | 1.4 | 0–5 | 0.3 | 22% |
| Quentin Johnston LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 0.8 | 0–0 | 0.2 | 14% |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 1 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 35% |
| DK Metcalf PIT @ CIN | WR | PIT vs CIN | 1 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 25% |
| Germie Bernard PIT @ CIN | WR | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 30% |
| Dohnte Meyers CIN vs PIT | WR | CIN vs PIT | 3 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 9% |
| Davis Allen LA @ ARI | TE | LA vs ARI | 3 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 16% |
| Oronde Gadsden II LAC @ BAL | TE | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 31% |
| Mark Andrews BAL vs LAC | TE | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 24% |
| Ja'Marr Chase CIN vs PIT | WR | CIN vs PIT | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 56% |
| Jordan Whittington LA @ ARI | WR | LA vs ARI | 4 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| Tre Harris LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 9% |
| Kyle Juszczyk SF @ DAL | FB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 15% |
| George Kittle SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 34% |
| Drew Sample CIN vs PIT | TE | CIN vs PIT | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 9% |
| Jake Ferguson DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 18% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PIT, SEA, SF, TEN, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →