| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Tgt ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua LA @ ARI | WR | LA vs ARI | 1 | 94.2 | 37–161 | 10.2 | 30% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET vs NE | WR | DET vs NE | 1 | 83.6 | 32–143 | 9.8 | 34% |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 1 | 78.6 | 29–137 | 9.4 | 35% |
| George Kittle SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 1 | 72.3 | 17–139 | 7.0 | 34% |
| A.J. Brown NE @ DET | WR | NE vs DET | 1 | 71.5 | 18–134 | 7.0 | 23% |
| Chris Olave NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 1 | 69.0 | 21–125 | 8.7 | 28% |
| George Pickens DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 2 | 66.7 | 12–134 | 7.2 | 23% |
| Trey McBride ARI vs LA | TE | ARI vs LA | 1 | 66.1 | 30–107 | 9.7 | 36% |
| Tetairoa McMillan CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 1 | 65.5 | 20–117 | 7.6 | 22% |
| Zay Flowers BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 62.0 | 18–115 | 7.2 | 21% |
| Jameson Williams DET vs NE | WR | DET vs NE | 2 | 59.4 | 10–120 | 6.1 | 26% |
| Michael Wilson ARI vs LA | WR | ARI vs LA | 1 | 56.2 | 16–104 | 7.9 | 26% |
| Carnell Tate CHART TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 1 | 56.1 | 14–106 | 6.6 | 15% |
| Parker Washington JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 1 | 52.9 | 12–101 | 6.0 | 21% |
| Mike Evans SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 1 | 52.8 | 10–104 | 6.0 | 24% |
| Sam LaPorta DET vs NE | TE | DET vs NE | 1 | 52.6 | 9–106 | 6.5 | 34% |
| Jakobi Meyers JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 2 | 49.7 | 9–101 | 5.8 | 22% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 48.4 | 14–90 | 7.1 | 30% |
| Jalen Coker CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 2 | 47.4 | 0–106 | 5.1 | 15% |
| Brenton Strange JAX @ TEN | TE | JAX vs TEN | 1 | 45.3 | 10–86 | 5.2 | 17% |
| Hunter Henry NE @ DET | TE | NE vs DET | 1 | 41.6 | 8–81 | 4.7 | 26% |
| Devaughn Vele NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 2 | 40.5 | 7–81 | 5.4 | 26% |
| DeMario Douglas NE @ DET | WR | NE vs DET | 2 | 40.4 | 3–87 | 4.5 | 10% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 2 | 40.4 | 6–83 | 4.8 | 27% |
| Christian McCaffrey SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 39.7 | 6–81 | 5.9 | 39% |
| Ladd McConkey CHART LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 38.1 | 4–80 | 4.2 | 20% |
| Ryan Flournoy DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 3 | 38.0 | 5–81 | 4.9 | 22% |
| Quentin Johnston LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 36.7 | 3–81 | 4.7 | 14% |
| Efton Chism III NE @ DET | WR | NE vs DET | 3 | 35.8 | 2–75 | 3.8 | 27% |
| Juwan Johnson NO vs CAR | TE | NO vs CAR | 1 | 34.1 | 0–77 | 4.5 | 34% |
| Oronde Gadsden II LAC @ BAL | TE | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 33.8 | 0–73 | 4.0 | 31% |
| Eli Raridon NE @ DET | TE | NE vs DET | 2 | 32.1 | 0–71 | 3.8 | 32% |
| Tre Harris LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 31.3 | 0–71 | 3.9 | 9% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET vs NE | RB | DET vs NE | 1 | 30.5 | 4–64 | 4.9 | 52% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 3 | 30.0 | 0–73 | 3.2 | 20% |
| Tyler Higbee LA @ ARI | TE | LA vs ARI | 1 | 27.7 | 0–62 | 3.9 | 9% |
| Mark Andrews BAL vs LAC | TE | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 27.2 | 0–58 | 3.8 | 24% |
| Elic Ayomanor TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 3 | 26.5 | 0–64 | 3.6 | 29% |
| Kendrick Bourne ARI vs LA | WR | ARI vs LA | 5 | 26.4 | 0–59 | 3.5 | 13% |
| Colby Parkinson LA @ ARI | TE | LA vs ARI | 2 | 25.6 | 0–60 | 3.8 | 29% |
| Darren Waller CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 2 | 25.1 | 0–60 | 3.1 | 14% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE @ DET | RB | NE vs DET | 1 | 24.8 | 0–57 | 3.6 | 18% |
| Rashod Bateman BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 24.4 | 0–54 | 3.1 | 21% |
| Gunnar Helm TEN vs JAX | TE | TEN vs JAX | 1 | 23.9 | 0–54 | 3.3 | 17% |
| Brandon Aiyuk SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 10 | 23.6 | 0–57 | 2.3 | 10% |
| Calvin Ridley TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 5 | 23.6 | 0–59 | 2.8 | 16% |
| Charlie Kolar CHART LAC @ BAL | TE | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 23.1 | 0–58 | 2.8 | 10% |
| Ja'Kobi Lane BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 22.7 | 0–53 | 3.2 | 23% |
| Theo Wease Jr. LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 7 | 22.4 | 0–55 | 2.5 | 13% |
| Jordan Watkins SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 3 | 22.0 | 0–59 | 2.4 | 5% |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 4 | 21.1 | 0–51 | 3.0 | 15% |
| Bhayshul Tuten JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 1 | 20.9 | 0–50 | 3.0 | 46% |
| Kyle Williams NE @ DET | WR | NE vs DET | 4 | 19.3 | 0–55 | 1.8 | 7% |
| John Metchie III CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 3 | 19.1 | 0–43 | 2.9 | 14% |
| Chuba Hubbard CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 1 | 18.4 | 0–47 | 3.5 | 52% |
| Jake Ferguson DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 1 | 18.2 | 0–48 | 2.9 | 18% |
| Justice Hill BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 18.2 | 0–48 | 3.2 | 11% |
| Alvin Kamara CHART NO vs CAR | RB | NO vs CAR | 1 | 18.1 | 0–42 | 3.4 | 24% |
| Bryce Lance NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 3 | 18.0 | 0–43 | 2.8 | 20% |
| Elijah Higgins ARI vs LA | TE | ARI vs LA | 2 | 17.8 | 0–44 | 2.5 | 7% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 2 | 17.7 | 0–45 | 2.7 | 7% |
| Tommy Tremble CHART CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 1 | 17.4 | 0–43 | 2.5 | 13% |
| Tutu Atwell LA @ ARI | WR | LA vs ARI | 3 | 17.4 | 0–45 | 2.1 | 4% |
| Tyler Allgeier ARI vs LA | RB | ARI vs LA | 2 | 17.3 | 0–43 | 2.9 | 26% |
| Kyren Williams LA @ ARI | RB | LA vs ARI | 1 | 17.1 | 0–46 | 3.4 | 45% |
| Daniel Bellinger TEN vs JAX | TE | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 17.0 | 0–43 | 2.0 | 11% |
| Chimere Dike TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 4 | 16.7 | 0–43 | 2.3 | |
| Tyjae Spears TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 16.2 | 0–41 | 2.7 | 9% |
| Josh Cameron JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 4 | 16.2 | 0–47 | 1.9 | 17% |
| Isaac TeSlaa DET vs NE | WR | DET vs NE | 3 | 16.1 | 0–50 | 1.9 | 13% |
| Jalen Brooks ARI vs LA | WR | ARI vs LA | 6 | 16.1 | 0–46 | 2.4 | 9% |
| Nate Boerkircher JAX @ TEN | TE | JAX vs TEN | 2 | 15.0 | 0–38 | 1.9 | 9% |
| Davis Allen LA @ ARI | TE | LA vs ARI | 3 | 15.0 | 0–39 | 2.4 | 16% |
| Tony Pollard TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 1 | 15.0 | 0–35 | 2.9 | 25% |
| Jacob Cowing SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 6 | 14.3 | 0–42 | 1.8 | |
| Josh Cuevas BAL vs LAC | TE | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 14.1 | 0–38 | 1.9 | 13% |
| Mitchell Evans CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 3 | 13.9 | 0–35 | 1.8 | 17% |
| Omarion Hampton LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 13.7 | 0–36 | 2.4 | 17% |
| Konata Mumpfield LA @ ARI | WR | LA vs ARI | 2 | 13.5 | 0–37 | 2.0 | 6% |
| Kimani Vidal LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 13.2 | 0–36 | 2.3 | 26% |
| Noah Fant NO vs CAR | TE | NO vs CAR | 2 | 13.1 | 0–36 | 1.8 | 11% |
| Xavier Restrepo TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 13.0 | 0–36 | 1.6 | 10% | |
| Brandin Cooks SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 4 | 13.0 | 0–36 | 1.8 | 9% |
| Keaton Mitchell LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 12.2 | 0–32 | 2.0 | 8% |
| Elijah Sarratt BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 6 | 12.2 | 0–34 | 1.6 | |
| Brycen Tremayne CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 4 | 12.0 | 0–34 | 1.4 | 10% |
| KaVontae Turpin DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 4 | 11.8 | 0–35 | 1.4 | 7% |
| Barion Brown NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 4 | 11.7 | 0–38 | 1.4 | 5% |
| Javonte Williams DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 1 | 11.4 | 0–31 | 2.6 | 44% |
| Kendre Miller NO vs CAR | RB | NO vs CAR | 2 | 10.9 | 0–32 | 1.9 | 16% |
| Derrick Henry BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 10.8 | 0–28 | 1.8 | 33% |
| Bam Knight ARI vs LA | RB | ARI vs LA | 3 | 10.7 | 0–30 | 2.2 | 17% |
| Kyle Juszczyk SF @ DAL | FB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 10.6 | 0–30 | 1.6 | 15% |
| Devin Duvernay ARI vs LA | WR | ARI vs LA | 4 | 10.5 | 0–30 | 1.7 | |
| Brenen Thompson LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 5 | 10.1 | 0–29 | 1.3 | |
| K.J. Osborn TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 10.1 | 0–30 | 1.4 | 10% | |
| Reggie Virgil ARI vs LA | WR | ARI vs LA | 2 | 9.5 | 0–30 | 1.3 | |
| Christian Kirk SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 5 | 9.0 | 0–29 | 1.1 | 5% |
| Devontez Walker BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 4 | 8.9 | 0–32 | 1.1 | |
| Jalen Hurd NE @ DET | WR | NE vs DET | 8.9 | 0–27 | 1.0 | 6% | |
| Brock Wright DET vs NE | TE | DET vs NE | 2 | 8.8 | 0–26 | 1.3 | 6% |
| Jeremiyah Love ARI vs LA | RB | ARI vs LA | 1 | 8.5 | 0–26 | 1.8 | 21% |
| Matthew Hibner BAL vs LAC | TE | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 8.4 | 0–24 | 1.1 | 7% |
| Blake Corum LA @ ARI | RB | LA vs ARI | 2 | 8.3 | 0–25 | 1.5 | 30% |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 5 | 8.2 | 0–24 | 1.1 | |
| TreVeyon Henderson NE @ DET | RB | NE vs DET | 2 | 7.9 | 0–22 | 1.3 | 12% |
| James Thompson SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 7.7 | 0–24 | 1.0 | ||
| David Moore CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 5 | 7.7 | 0–23 | 1.0 | |
| Kaelon Black SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 2 | 7.4 | 0–23 | 1.4 | 11% |
| Ja'Seem Reed CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 6.9 | 0–23 | 0.9 | 9% | |
| Oscar Delp NO vs CAR | TE | NO vs CAR | 3 | 6.8 | 0–22 | 1.0 | |
| Michael Carter TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 5 | 6.8 | 0–19 | 1.2 | 15% |
| Tyler Conklin DET vs NE | TE | DET vs NE | 3 | 6.6 | 0–22 | 0.9 | |
| Kylen Granson TEN vs JAX | TE | TEN vs JAX | 4 | 6.1 | 0–20 | 0.9 | |
| Tanner Koziol JAX @ TEN | TE | JAX vs TEN | 3 | 6.0 | 0–20 | 0.8 | |
| Lan Larison NE @ DET | RB | NE vs DET | 4 | 5.9 | 0–18 | 0.9 | |
| Jonathan Mingo DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 5 | 5.9 | 0–20 | 1.1 | 5% |
| Ryan Miller NE @ DET | WR | NE vs DET | 5.9 | 0–21 | 0.6 | ||
| Simi Fehoko ARI vs LA | WR | ARI vs LA | 3 | 5.8 | 0–20 | 0.8 | |
| Tanner Arkin NE @ DET | TE | NE vs DET | 4 | 5.7 | 0–19 | 0.7 | |
| Jordan Whittington LA @ ARI | WR | LA vs ARI | 4 | 5.6 | 0–19 | 0.7 | |
| DeAndre Carter DET vs NE | WR | DET vs NE | 5 | 5.6 | 0–18 | 0.8 | 3% |
| Cedric Tillman NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 5.5 | 0–19 | 0.8 | 5% | |
| Jalen Cropper NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 5.4 | 0–18 | 0.7 | ||
| Kenny Yeboah ARI vs LA | TE | ARI vs LA | 5.4 | 0–18 | 0.8 | 5% | |
| Dean Connors LA @ ARI | RB | LA vs ARI | 3 | 5.4 | 0–17 | 0.9 | 10% |
| C.J. Williams JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 6 | 5.3 | 0–19 | 0.6 | |
| Adam Randall BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 4 | 5.1 | 0–16 | 1.0 | 13% |
| Sione Vaki DET vs NE | RB | DET vs NE | 2 | 5.1 | 0–17 | 0.8 | 6% |
| AJ Dillon CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 4 | 5.0 | 0–18 | 0.8 | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 2 | 5.0 | 0–17 | 0.8 | 16% |
| Corey Kiner NE @ DET | RB | NE vs DET | 3 | 5.0 | 0–17 | 0.7 | 18% |
| Trevor Etienne CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 2 | 4.9 | 0–16 | 0.8 | |
| CJ Donaldson NO vs CAR | RB | NO vs CAR | 3 | 4.9 | 0–16 | 1.0 | 8% |
| Tyler Goodson DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 4.9 | 0–16 | 1.0 | 9% |
| Max Klare LA @ ARI | TE | LA vs ARI | 4 | 4.9 | 0–17 | 0.7 | 4% |
| Justin Jackson DET vs NE | RB | DET vs NE | 4.8 | 0–15 | 0.8 | 7% | |
| Jordan James SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 3 | 4.5 | 0–14 | 0.7 | 6% |
| LaJohntay Wester BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 5 | 4.5 | 0–16 | 0.6 | |
| Luke Farrell SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 2 | 4.5 | 0–14 | 0.6 | |
| Nicholas Singleton TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 4 | 4.3 | 0–14 | 0.7 | 13% |
| Anthony Tyus III CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 3 | 4.3 | 0–14 | 0.7 | 13% |
| Luke Schoonmaker DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 3 | 4.2 | 0–15 | 0.7 | |
| Jackson Meeks DET vs NE | TE | DET vs NE | 4 | 4.1 | 0–15 | 0.6 | |
| Ameer Abdullah JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 4 | 4.1 | 0–14 | 0.7 | 10% |
| Patrick Herbert LAC @ BAL | TE | LAC vs BAL | 4.0 | 0–14 | 0.6 | ||
| Camden Brown DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 6 | 3.9 | 0–15 | 0.5 | 3% |
| Tay Martin DET vs NE | WR | DET vs NE | 4 | 3.9 | 0–14 | 0.4 | 3% |
| Derius Davis LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 6 | 3.8 | 0–14 | 0.5 | |
| Hunter Luepke DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 3.7 | 0–14 | 0.6 | 7% | |
| CJ Daniels LA @ ARI | WR | LA vs ARI | 5 | 3.6 | 0–14 | 0.4 | |
| Teagan Quitoriano ARI vs LA | TE | ARI vs LA | 3 | 3.5 | 0–13 | 0.5 | 8% |
| James Mitchell DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 3.4 | 0–13 | 0.5 | ||
| LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 3 | 3.3 | 0–12 | 0.6 | 7% |
| Rasheen Ali BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 3.2 | 0–11 | 0.6 | 11% |
| Quintin Morris JAX @ TEN | TE | JAX vs TEN | 4 | 3.1 | 0–12 | 0.4 | |
| Hayden Rucci LAC @ BAL | TE | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 3.1 | 0–11 | 0.4 | |
| Nick Vannett BAL vs LAC | TE | BAL vs LAC | 4 | 2.9 | 0–10 | 0.4 | |
| Treyton Welch NO vs CAR | TE | NO vs CAR | 4 | 2.8 | 0–11 | 0.4 | |
| Jack Stoll SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 2.8 | 0–10 | 0.4 | ||
| David Martin-Robinson TEN vs JAX | TE | TEN vs JAX | 3 | 2.6 | 0–10 | 0.4 | |
| Kalel Mullings TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 2.6 | 0–10 | 0.4 | ||
| Evan Hull ARI vs LA | RB | ARI vs LA | 4 | 2.4 | 0–9 | 0.5 | 8% |
| Scott Matlock LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 2.4 | 0–9 | 0.4 | 9% | |
| Feleipe Franks CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 4 | 2.3 | 0–9 | 0.3 | |
| Alex Bachman LA @ ARI | WR | LA vs ARI | 6 | 2.2 | 0–8 | 0.3 | |
| Cameron Latu NE @ DET | TE | NE vs DET | 3 | 2.0 | 0–8 | 0.2 | |
| Brayden Willis SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 3 | 2.0 | 0–8 | 0.3 | |
| Jacob Saylors DET vs NE | RB | DET vs NE | 3 | 2.0 | 0–7 | 0.3 | 5% |
| Julius Chestnut TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 3 | 1.7 | 0–6 | 0.3 | |
| Jacoby Brissett CHART ARI vs LA | QB | ARI vs LA | 3 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 26% |
| Justin Herbert LAC @ BAL | QB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 32% |
| Sam Howell DAL vs SF | QB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 11% |
| Zach Wilson NO vs CAR | QB | NO vs CAR | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 10% |
| Mitchell Trubisky TEN vs JAX | QB | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PIT, SEA, SF, TEN, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →