| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Tgt ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 1 | 6.5 | 3–10 | 9.0 | 37% |
| Justin Jefferson MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 5.8 | 3–9 | 8.9 | 42% |
| Chris Olave NO vs CLE | WR | NO vs CLE | 1 | 5.6 | 2–10 | 8.5 | 28% |
| Nico Collins HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 1 | 4.6 | 2–8 | 6.9 | 27% |
| Sam LaPorta DET @ MIA | TE | DET vs MIA | 1 | 4.4 | 1–8 | 6.0 | 31% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 1 | 4.3 | 2–7 | 5.5 | 50% |
| Dalton Schultz HOU @ LAC | TE | HOU vs LAC | 1 | 4.0 | 1–7 | 5.6 | 18% |
| KC Concepcion CLE @ NO | WR | CLE vs NO | 2 | 3.9 | 1–7 | 6.1 | 11% |
| Harold Fannin Jr. CLE @ NO | TE | CLE vs NO | 1 | 3.9 | 1–7 | 5.7 | 16% |
| Malik Washington MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 1 | 3.9 | 1–7 | 5.8 | 14% |
| T.J. Hockenson MIN vs BUF | TE | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 3.8 | 1–8 | 5.2 | 23% |
| Devaughn Vele NO vs CLE | WR | NO vs CLE | 2 | 3.8 | 1–7 | 5.7 | 28% |
| Khalil Shakir BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 3.8 | 1–7 | 5.1 | 22% |
| Jameson Williams DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 2 | 3.7 | 1–6 | 5.9 | 24% |
| Jordan Addison MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 2 | 3.7 | 1–6 | 6.0 | 17% |
| Greg Dulcich MIA vs DET | TE | MIA vs DET | 1 | 3.5 | 1–6 | 4.7 | 27% |
| Caleb Douglas MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 2 | 3.4 | 1–6 | 5.3 | 41% |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith CHART LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 4 | 3.3 | 1–6 | 5.6 | 14% |
| Denzel Boston CHART CLE @ NO | WR | CLE vs NO | 1 | 3.2 | 1–6 | 5.7 | 32% |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF @ MIN | TE | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 3.1 | 1–5 | 4.3 | 13% |
| DJ Moore CHART BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 3.1 | 1–6 | 4.6 | 20% |
| Juwan Johnson NO vs CLE | TE | NO vs CLE | 1 | 3.0 | 0–6 | 4.1 | 32% |
| Alvin Kamara CHART NO vs CLE | RB | NO vs CLE | 1 | 2.8 | 1–5 | 3.4 | 24% |
| Tre Harris LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 3 | 2.7 | 1–5 | 4.1 | 10% |
| Quentin Johnston LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 2.6 | 0–5 | 4.5 | 15% |
| Keon Coleman BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 3 | 2.6 | 1–5 | 4.1 | 21% |
| Jerry Jeudy CLE @ NO | WR | CLE vs NO | 3 | 2.6 | 0–5 | 4.2 | 8% |
| Xavier Hutchinson HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 3 | 2.5 | 0–5 | 4.5 | 8% |
| Jaylin Noel HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 4 | 2.3 | 0–5 | 3.3 | 18% |
| Oronde Gadsden II LAC vs HOU | TE | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 2.3 | 0–4 | 3.3 | 27% |
| Dylan Sampson CLE @ NO | RB | CLE vs NO | 2 | 2.2 | 0–4 | 2.7 | 11% |
| Aaron Jones MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 2 | 2.2 | 0–5 | 2.8 | 38% |
| Charlie Kolar CHART LAC vs HOU | TE | LAC vs HOU | 1 | 2.1 | 0–5 | 2.9 | 11% |
| Jauan Jennings MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 3 | 2.1 | 0–4 | 3.3 | 11% |
| Woody Marks HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 2 | 2.1 | 0–4 | 2.8 | 35% |
| Ladd McConkey CHART LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 1 | 2.1 | 0–5 | 3.1 | 17% |
| Quinshon Judkins CLE @ NO | RB | CLE vs NO | 1 | 2.0 | 0–4 | 2.5 | 49% |
| Ty Johnson BUF @ MIN | RB | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 2.0 | 0–4 | 2.6 | 8% |
| Omarion Hampton LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 1 | 1.8 | 0–4 | 2.2 | 20% |
| Kayshon Boutte HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 6 | 1.8 | 0–4 | 2.9 | 11% |
| Chris Bell MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 3 | 1.7 | 0–3 | 3.0 | 8% |
| Theo Wease Jr. LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 6 | 1.7 | 0–3 | 2.6 | 13% |
| Gavin Bartholomew MIN vs BUF | TE | MIN vs BUF | 2 | 1.6 | 0–4 | 2.2 | 8% |
| Noah Fant NO vs CLE | TE | NO vs CLE | 2 | 1.6 | 0–4 | 2.1 | 13% |
| James Cook BUF @ MIN | RB | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 1.5 | 0–3 | 1.9 | 47% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 2 | 1.5 | 0–3 | 2.6 | 13% |
| Keaton Mitchell LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 1.5 | 0–3 | 1.9 | 9% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 4 | 1.4 | 0–3 | 2.6 | 21% |
| Dawson Knox BUF @ MIN | TE | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 1.4 | 0–3 | 2.0 | 22% |
| Kendre Miller NO vs CLE | RB | NO vs CLE | 2 | 1.4 | 0–3 | 1.8 | 17% |
| Isaac TeSlaa DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 3 | 1.4 | 0–3 | 2.4 | 16% |
| Bryce Lance NO vs CLE | WR | NO vs CLE | 3 | 1.3 | 0–3 | 2.4 | 18% |
| Foster Moreau HOU @ LAC | TE | HOU vs LAC | 2 | 1.3 | 0–3 | 1.8 | 17% |
| Jordan Mason CHART MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 1.3 | 0–3 | 1.6 | 16% |
| Josh Palmer BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 4 | 1.3 | 0–3 | 2.1 | 5% |
| David Montgomery CHART HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 1 | 1.2 | 0–3 | 1.5 | 29% |
| Kimani Vidal LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 3 | 1.2 | 0–3 | 1.7 | 25% |
| Tank Dell HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 5 | 1.2 | 0–3 | 1.9 | |
| Ollie Gordon II MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 1 | 1.2 | 0–3 | 1.5 | 24% |
| Jawhar Jordan HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 1.1 | 0–2 | 1.3 | 9% | |
| Brock Wright DET @ MIA | TE | DET vs MIA | 2 | 1.1 | 0–3 | 1.4 | 7% |
| Barion Brown NO vs CLE | WR | NO vs CLE | 4 | 1.0 | 0–2 | 1.4 | 6% |
| Tai Felton MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 4 | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.5 | 6% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin CLE @ NO | RB | CLE vs NO | 3 | 0.9 | 0–3 | 1.1 | 19% |
| Will Kacmarek MIA vs DET | TE | MIA vs DET | 2 | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.3 | |
| Skyler Bell BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 6 | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.4 | 12% |
| CJ Donaldson NO vs CLE | RB | NO vs CLE | 3 | 0.8 | 0–2 | 1.0 | 8% |
| DJ Herman MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.0 | 6% | |
| Brenen Thompson LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 5 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.2 | |
| Cade Stover HOU @ LAC | TE | HOU vs LAC | 3 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.0 | 13% |
| Jared Wayne MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 6 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.3 | |
| Audric Estimé CLE @ NO | RB | CLE vs NO | 4 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 0.9 | 15% |
| Isaiah Bond CLE @ NO | WR | CLE vs NO | 4 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.3 | |
| Justin Joly MIA vs DET | TE | MIA vs DET | 4 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.0 | 6% |
| Jalen Tolbert MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 5 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.2 | 12% |
| Myles Price MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 5 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.1 | 8% |
| Oscar Delp NO vs CLE | TE | NO vs CLE | 3 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 0.9 | |
| Dillon Bell MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.0 | ||
| Ray Davis BUF @ MIN | RB | BUF vs MIN | 3 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 0.8 | 6% |
| Max Bredeson MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.8 | 6% | |
| Justin Jackson DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.8 | 8% | |
| Sione Vaki DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 2 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.8 | 4% |
| Jeshaun Jones MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 0.6 | 0–2 | 1.0 | ||
| Demond Claiborne MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 3 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.7 | |
| Ben Yurosek MIN vs BUF | TE | MIN vs BUF | 3 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.8 | |
| Odell Beckham Jr. MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.9 | ||
| Marlin Klein HOU @ LAC | TE | HOU vs LAC | 5 | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.7 | |
| Kaytron Allen MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 3 | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.6 | 12% |
| Tyler Conklin DET @ MIA | TE | DET vs MIA | 3 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.7 | |
| DeAndre Carter DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 5 | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.8 | 3% |
| Jackson Hawes BUF @ MIN | TE | BUF vs MIN | 3 | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Greg Dortch BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 5 | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.7 | 5% |
| Brevin Jordan HOU @ LAC | TE | HOU vs LAC | 4 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Lewis Bond HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.7 | ||
| Derius Davis LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 7 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Carlos Washington MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | 7% | |
| Jaylen Wright MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 2 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Jackson Meeks DET @ MIA | TE | DET vs MIA | 4 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Cedric Tillman NO vs CLE | WR | NO vs CLE | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.7 | 5% | |
| Seydou Traore MIA vs DET | TE | MIA vs DET | 3 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Hayden Rucci LAC vs HOU | TE | LAC vs HOU | 3 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | 8% |
| Malachi Corley CLE @ NO | WR | CLE vs NO | 6 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Blake Whiteheart CLE @ NO | TE | CLE vs NO | 2 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | 5% |
| Jalen Cropper NO vs CLE | WR | NO vs CLE | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.6 | ||
| Patrick Herbert LAC vs HOU | TE | LAC vs HOU | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.5 | ||
| Dare Ogunbowale HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 3 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.5 | |
| Tylan Wallace CLE @ NO | WR | CLE vs NO | 5 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.5 | |
| Keleki Latu BUF @ MIN | TE | BUF vs MIN | 4 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.4 | |
| Jacob Saylors DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 3 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.3 | 5% |
| Scott Matlock LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | ||
| Michael Burton CLE @ NO | FB | CLE vs NO | 1 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Tay Martin DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 4 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.4 | 3% |
| Treyton Welch NO vs CLE | TE | NO vs CLE | 4 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Josh Allen BUF @ MIN | QB | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 22% |
| Justin Herbert LAC vs HOU | QB | LAC vs HOU | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 34% |
| Zach Wilson NO vs CLE | QB | NO vs CLE | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 10% |
| Max Brosmer MIN vs BUF | QB | MIN vs BUF | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 6% |
| Kyle Allen BUF @ MIN | QB | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 8% |
| Dillon Gabriel CLE @ NO | QB | CLE vs NO | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 7% |
| Davis Mills HOU @ LAC | QB | HOU vs LAC | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 8% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, SEA, SF, TB, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →