| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Car ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor IND vs DAL | RB | IND vs DAL | 1 | 91.4 | 44–150 | 17.6 | 33% |
| James Cook BUF @ MIN | RB | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 84.5 | 40–135 | 18.6 | 47% |
| Javonte Williams DAL @ IND | RB | DAL vs IND | 1 | 69.0 | 32–110 | 15.8 | 38% |
| Bucky Irving TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 1 | 65.1 | 26–111 | 16.3 | 44% |
| Aaron Jones MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 2 | 58.8 | 29–93 | 14.5 | 38% |
| Jordan Mason CHART MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 56.0 | 25–91 | 12.4 | 16% |
| Kyle Monangai CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 2 | 51.9 | 17–93 | 13.2 | 26% |
| D'Andre Swift CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 1 | 51.7 | 22–86 | 13.8 | 22% |
| Woody Marks HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 2 | 50.9 | 17–91 | 13.3 | 35% |
| Omarion Hampton LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 1 | 43.5 | 15–79 | 11.4 | 20% |
| David Montgomery CHART HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 1 | 40.3 | 14–72 | 9.1 | 29% |
| Seth McGowan IND vs DAL | RB | IND vs DAL | 2 | 32.7 | 6–66 | 6.7 | 10% |
| Jawhar Jordan HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 30.7 | 7–62 | 6.5 | 9% | |
| Josh Allen BUF @ MIN | QB | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 29.9 | 7–57 | 5.6 | 22% |
| Kimani Vidal LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 3 | 29.0 | 4–62 | 7.5 | 25% |
| Kyler Murray MIN vs BUF | QB | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 27.0 | 2–58 | 4.1 | 19% |
| Justin Herbert LAC vs HOU | QB | LAC vs HOU | 1 | 26.3 | 5–54 | 4.5 | 34% |
| Kenny Gainwell TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 2 | 25.0 | 3–53 | 6.6 | 29% |
| Keaton Mitchell LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 19.5 | 0–48 | 4.0 | 9% |
| Anthony Richardson IND vs DAL | QB | IND vs DAL | 2 | 17.8 | 0–41 | 2.6 | 20% |
| Jalon Daniels TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 2 | 17.3 | 0–40 | 3.3 | 8% |
| Emari Demercado DAL @ IND | RB | DAL vs IND | 3 | 16.9 | 0–40 | 2.9 | 7% |
| Caleb Williams CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 1 | 16.8 | 0–39 | 3.3 | 13% |
| Sean Tucker TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 3 | 16.5 | 0–40 | 4.3 | 19% |
| Roschon Johnson CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 3 | 16.0 | 1–35 | 4.8 | 25% |
| Tyler Goodson DAL @ IND | RB | DAL vs IND | 2 | 15.1 | 0–38 | 3.2 | 10% |
| C.J. Stroud CHART HOU @ LAC | QB | HOU vs LAC | 1 | 14.0 | 0–32 | 2.5 | 10% |
| Daniel Jones IND vs DAL | QB | IND vs DAL | 1 | 14.0 | 0–33 | 2.6 | 13% |
| Baker Mayfield CHART TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 1 | 13.5 | 0–34 | 2.4 | 8% |
| DJ Uiagalelei LAC vs HOU | QB | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 12.8 | 0–30 | 2.5 | 15% |
| Dak Prescott DAL @ IND | QB | DAL vs IND | 1 | 12.2 | 0–28 | 2.1 | 16% |
| Miller Moss CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 11.6 | 0–27 | 2.4 | 13% | |
| Carson Wentz MIN vs BUF | QB | MIN vs BUF | 2 | 10.3 | 0–25 | 2.2 | 9% |
| DJ Giddens IND vs DAL | RB | IND vs DAL | 3 | 10.2 | 0–24 | 2.2 | 8% |
| Demond Claiborne MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 3 | 9.9 | 0–22 | 2.6 | |
| Josh Williams TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 9.8 | 0–23 | 2.7 | 8% | |
| Sam Howell DAL @ IND | QB | DAL vs IND | 2 | 9.6 | 0–25 | 1.6 | 13% |
| Ray Davis BUF @ MIN | RB | BUF vs MIN | 3 | 9.3 | 0–23 | 2.4 | 6% |
| Easton Stick TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 9.1 | 0–23 | 1.9 | 9% | |
| Ty Johnson BUF @ MIN | RB | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 8.8 | 0–21 | 2.2 | 8% |
| Davis Mills HOU @ LAC | QB | HOU vs LAC | 2 | 8.8 | 0–23 | 1.5 | 8% |
| Riley Leonard IND vs DAL | QB | IND vs DAL | 3 | 7.6 | 0–21 | 1.2 | 10% |
| Case Keenum CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 3 | 6.8 | 0–19 | 1.5 | 11% |
| Tyson Bagent CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 2 | 6.2 | 0–18 | 1.3 | 8% |
| Max Brosmer MIN vs BUF | QB | MIN vs BUF | 3 | 5.8 | 0–17 | 1.1 | 6% |
| Kyle Allen BUF @ MIN | QB | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 5.8 | 0–17 | 1.1 | 8% |
| Tank Dell HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 5 | 5.6 | 0–19 | 1.0 | |
| Hunter Luepke DAL @ IND | RB | DAL vs IND | 5.2 | 0–14 | 1.2 | 8% | |
| Max Bredeson MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 4.9 | 0–13 | 1.2 | 6% | |
| Dare Ogunbowale HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 3 | 4.0 | 0–11 | 1.0 | |
| Jordan Addison MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 2 | 3.5 | 0–12 | 0.6 | 17% |
| Luther Burden III CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 2 | 3.4 | 0–13 | 0.8 | 20% |
| Xavier Hutchinson HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 3 | 3.3 | 0–13 | 0.6 | 8% |
| Scott Matlock LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 3.1 | 0–9 | 0.8 | ||
| DJ Moore CHART BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 2.8 | 0–11 | 0.6 | 20% |
| Deion Burks IND vs DAL | WR | IND vs DAL | 5 | 2.8 | 0–11 | 0.5 | |
| Cade Stover HOU @ LAC | TE | HOU vs LAC | 3 | 2.4 | 0–6 | 0.7 | 13% |
| Jaylin Noel HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 4 | 2.3 | 0–9 | 0.4 | 18% |
| KaVontae Turpin DAL @ IND | WR | DAL vs IND | 4 | 2.2 | 0–7 | 0.4 | 8% |
| Tez Johnson TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 4 | 2.1 | 0–9 | 0.5 | 16% |
| Quentin Johnston LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 1.9 | 0–8 | 0.4 | 15% |
| Tyler Warren IND vs DAL | TE | IND vs DAL | 1 | 1.9 | 0–5 | 0.5 | 29% |
| Emeka Egbuka TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 1 | 1.9 | 0–8 | 0.4 | 27% |
| Nico Collins HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 1 | 1.8 | 0–7 | 0.3 | 27% |
| Josh Downs CHART IND vs DAL | WR | IND vs DAL | 1 | 1.7 | 0–7 | 0.3 | 18% |
| Derius Davis LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 7 | 1.6 | 0–6 | 0.3 | |
| Justin Jefferson MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 1.5 | 0–6 | 0.3 | 42% |
| Chris Godwin Jr. TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 2 | 1.0 | 0–1 | 0.2 | 11% |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL @ IND | WR | DAL vs IND | 1 | 0.8 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 36% |
| Greg Dortch BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 5 | 0.7 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 5% |
| Ashton Dulin IND vs DAL | WR | IND vs DAL | 4 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Myles Price MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 5 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 8% |
| Zavion Thomas CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 4 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Kalif Raymond CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 3 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 9% |
| Dawson Knox BUF @ MIN | TE | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 22% |
| Ryan Flournoy DAL @ IND | WR | DAL vs IND | 3 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 18% |
| Oronde Gadsden II LAC vs HOU | TE | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 27% |
| Kameron Johnson TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 6 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| Tre Harris LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 10% |
| Khalil Shakir BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 22% |
| T.J. Hockenson MIN vs BUF | TE | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 23% |
| Colston Loveland CHI vs TB | TE | CHI vs TB | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 35% |
| Jake Ferguson DAL @ IND | TE | DAL vs IND | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 21% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, SEA, SF, TB, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →