| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Tgt ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 91.9 | 33–159 | 8.9 | 42% |
| George Kittle SF vs LV | TE | SF vs LV | 1 | 69.6 | 18–131 | 6.9 | 34% |
| Tetairoa McMillan CAR vs DEN | WR | CAR vs DEN | 1 | 69.2 | 20–126 | 8.2 | 26% |
| Brock Bowers LV @ SF | TE | LV vs SF | 1 | 63.6 | 20–112 | 8.3 | 31% |
| Jalen Coker CAR vs DEN | WR | CAR vs DEN | 2 | 58.6 | 15–112 | 6.6 | 14% |
| Jordan Addison MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 2 | 57.2 | 11–115 | 6.0 | 17% |
| Tre Tucker LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 1 | 51.1 | 7–107 | 6.6 | 21% |
| Jaylen Waddle DEN @ CAR | WR | DEN vs CAR | 1 | 47.2 | 10–91 | 5.7 | 23% |
| Mike Evans SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 1 | 47.1 | 7–97 | 5.4 | 22% |
| Courtland Sutton DEN @ CAR | WR | DEN vs CAR | 2 | 42.7 | 8–84 | 5.7 | 28% |
| T.J. Hockenson MIN vs BUF | TE | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 41.9 | 5–88 | 5.2 | 23% |
| Khalil Shakir BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 39.4 | 6–82 | 5.1 | 22% |
| Christian McCaffrey SF vs LV | RB | SF vs LV | 1 | 39.1 | 9–75 | 5.7 | 37% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 2 | 35.2 | 1–78 | 4.2 | 26% |
| Michael Mayer LV @ SF | TE | LV vs SF | 2 | 35.1 | 8–67 | 5.2 | 11% |
| DJ Moore CHART BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 33.6 | 3–71 | 4.6 | 20% |
| Keon Coleman BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 3 | 31.1 | 2–67 | 4.1 | 21% |
| Jauan Jennings MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 3 | 30.2 | 0–67 | 3.3 | 11% |
| Ashton Jeanty LV @ SF | RB | LV vs SF | 1 | 30.0 | 5–62 | 5.5 | 48% |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF @ MIN | TE | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 29.9 | 5–60 | 4.3 | 13% |
| Brandon Aiyuk SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 10 | 25.3 | 0–59 | 2.4 | 11% |
| Darren Waller CAR vs DEN | TE | CAR vs DEN | 2 | 25.1 | 0–59 | 3.3 | 15% |
| RJ Harvey DEN @ CAR | RB | DEN vs CAR | 2 | 22.8 | 0–52 | 3.9 | 34% |
| Jalen Nailor LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 2 | 21.9 | 0–56 | 2.9 | 17% |
| Tommy Tremble CHART CAR vs DEN | TE | CAR vs DEN | 1 | 19.7 | 0–46 | 2.9 | 15% |
| Jordan Watkins SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 3 | 19.1 | 0–50 | 2.1 | |
| Aaron Jones MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 2 | 18.7 | 0–46 | 2.8 | 38% |
| John Metchie III CAR vs DEN | WR | CAR vs DEN | 4 | 17.8 | 0–41 | 2.7 | 10% |
| Ty Johnson BUF @ MIN | RB | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 17.6 | 0–43 | 2.6 | 8% |
| Gavin Bartholomew MIN vs BUF | TE | MIN vs BUF | 2 | 17.5 | 0–47 | 2.2 | 8% |
| Evan Engram DEN @ CAR | TE | DEN vs CAR | 1 | 17.0 | 0–39 | 2.8 | 9% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. DEN @ CAR | WR | DEN vs CAR | 4 | 16.4 | 0–48 | 2.1 | 7% |
| Josh Palmer BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 4 | 16.2 | 0–45 | 2.1 | 5% |
| Troy Franklin DEN @ CAR | WR | DEN vs CAR | 3 | 15.7 | 0–40 | 2.5 | 19% |
| Brandin Cooks SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 4 | 15.7 | 0–41 | 2.1 | 11% |
| Cody White LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 3 | 15.7 | 0–42 | 1.9 | 11% |
| Jacob Cowing SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 6 | 15.2 | 0–43 | 1.8 | |
| Chuba Hubbard CAR vs DEN | RB | CAR vs DEN | 1 | 14.9 | 0–35 | 3.0 | 52% |
| Mitchell Evans CAR vs DEN | TE | CAR vs DEN | 3 | 14.0 | 0–35 | 1.9 | 14% |
| Tai Felton MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 4 | 13.2 | 0–38 | 1.5 | 6% |
| Dawson Knox BUF @ MIN | TE | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 13.1 | 0–33 | 2.0 | 22% |
| Brycen Tremayne CAR vs DEN | WR | CAR vs DEN | 3 | 13.0 | 0–39 | 1.5 | 11% |
| Kyle Juszczyk SF vs LV | FB | SF vs LV | 1 | 13.0 | 0–35 | 1.9 | 18% |
| Jonah Coleman CHART DEN @ CAR | RB | DEN vs CAR | 1 | 12.3 | 0–32 | 2.2 | 18% |
| James Cook BUF @ MIN | RB | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 11.0 | 0–29 | 1.9 | 47% |
| Ja'Seem Reed CAR vs DEN | WR | CAR vs DEN | 10.2 | 0–30 | 1.3 | 11% | |
| Jordan Mason CHART MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 9.9 | 0–27 | 1.6 | 16% |
| Dillon Bell MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 9.6 | 0–31 | 1.0 | ||
| Skyler Bell BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 6 | 9.6 | 0–28 | 1.4 | 12% |
| Jeshaun Jones MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 9.1 | 0–29 | 1.0 | ||
| Myles Price MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 5 | 9.0 | 0–29 | 1.1 | 8% |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR vs DEN | TE | CAR vs DEN | 5 | 8.9 | 0–26 | 1.3 | |
| David Moore CAR vs DEN | WR | CAR vs DEN | 5 | 8.7 | 0–25 | 1.2 | |
| Christian Kirk SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 5 | 8.6 | 0–28 | 1.1 | 5% |
| Odell Beckham Jr. MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 7.8 | 0–26 | 0.9 | ||
| James Thompson SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 7.5 | 0–24 | 0.9 | ||
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey DEN @ CAR | WR | DEN vs CAR | 5 | 7.5 | 0–24 | 1.1 | |
| J.K. Dobbins CHART DEN @ CAR | RB | DEN vs CAR | 3 | 7.3 | 0–20 | 1.7 | 20% |
| Malik Benson LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 5 | 7.3 | 0–24 | 1.1 | 11% |
| Adam Trautman DEN @ CAR | TE | DEN vs CAR | 2 | 7.2 | 0–22 | 1.1 | 11% |
| Deven Thompkins LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 6.9 | 0–22 | 1.0 | ||
| Kolbe Katsis DEN @ CAR | WR | DEN vs CAR | 6.7 | 0–22 | 0.9 | ||
| Kaelon Black SF vs LV | RB | SF vs LV | 2 | 6.5 | 0–20 | 1.2 | 11% |
| Luke Farrell SF vs LV | TE | SF vs LV | 2 | 6.4 | 0–18 | 0.9 | 5% |
| Mike Washington Jr. LV @ SF | RB | LV vs SF | 2 | 6.4 | 0–19 | 1.2 | 15% |
| Ian Thomas LV @ SF | TE | LV vs SF | 3 | 6.3 | 0–20 | 0.9 | |
| Ben Yurosek MIN vs BUF | TE | MIN vs BUF | 3 | 6.2 | 0–20 | 0.8 | |
| Dallen Bentley DEN @ CAR | TE | DEN vs CAR | 4 | 6.1 | 0–20 | 0.9 | |
| Nate Adkins DEN @ CAR | TE | DEN vs CAR | 3 | 5.9 | 0–20 | 0.9 | 14% |
| Dylan Laube LV @ SF | RB | LV vs SF | 3 | 5.6 | 0–19 | 1.0 | 7% |
| Trevor Etienne CAR vs DEN | RB | CAR vs DEN | 2 | 5.4 | 0–16 | 1.0 | |
| Max Bredeson MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 5.4 | 0–17 | 0.8 | 6% | |
| Roman Hemby LV @ SF | RB | LV vs SF | 5.3 | 0–17 | 0.9 | 11% | |
| AJ Dillon CAR vs DEN | RB | CAR vs DEN | 4 | 5.1 | 0–17 | 0.8 | |
| Jordan James SF vs LV | RB | SF vs LV | 3 | 4.8 | 0–15 | 0.8 | 6% |
| Ray Davis BUF @ MIN | RB | BUF vs MIN | 3 | 4.8 | 0–15 | 0.8 | 6% |
| Demond Claiborne MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 3 | 4.5 | 0–15 | 0.7 | |
| Jackson Hawes BUF @ MIN | TE | BUF vs MIN | 3 | 4.3 | 0–16 | 0.6 | |
| Anthony Tyus III CAR vs DEN | RB | CAR vs DEN | 3 | 4.3 | 0–14 | 0.8 | 11% |
| Greg Dortch BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 5 | 4.0 | 0–14 | 0.7 | 5% |
| Malik Turner SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 3.4 | 0–12 | 0.4 | ||
| Jack Stoll SF vs LV | TE | SF vs LV | 3.0 | 0–11 | 0.4 | ||
| Connor Heyward LV @ SF | FB | LV vs SF | 1 | 2.9 | 0–12 | 0.5 | |
| Chris Myarick LV @ SF | TE | LV vs SF | 2.6 | 0–10 | 0.4 | ||
| Keleki Latu BUF @ MIN | TE | BUF vs MIN | 4 | 2.4 | 0–9 | 0.4 | |
| Dareke Young LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 4 | 2.2 | 0–7 | 0.3 | |
| Feleipe Franks CAR vs DEN | TE | CAR vs DEN | 4 | 2.0 | 0–8 | 0.3 | |
| Brayden Willis SF vs LV | TE | SF vs LV | 3 | 1.9 | 0–7 | 0.3 | |
| Adam Prentice DEN @ CAR | FB | DEN vs CAR | 1 | 1.7 | 0–7 | 0.3 | |
| Josh Allen BUF @ MIN | QB | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 22% |
| Sam Ehlinger DEN @ CAR | QB | DEN vs CAR | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 9% |
| Jarrett Stidham DEN @ CAR | QB | DEN vs CAR | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 6% |
| Max Brosmer MIN vs BUF | QB | MIN vs BUF | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 6% |
| Aidan O'Connell LV @ SF | QB | LV vs SF | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 9% |
| Kyle Allen BUF @ MIN | QB | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 8% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, SEA, SF, TB, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →