| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Car ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 1 | 96.3 | 40–160 | 19.1 | 50% |
| James Cook BUF @ MIN | RB | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 84.5 | 40–135 | 18.6 | 47% |
| Derrick Henry BAL vs JAX | RB | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 71.0 | 29–121 | 16.8 | 29% |
| Bucky Irving TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 1 | 65.1 | 26–111 | 16.3 | 44% |
| Aaron Jones MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 2 | 58.8 | 29–93 | 14.5 | 38% |
| Jordan Mason CHART MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 56.0 | 25–91 | 12.4 | 16% |
| Kyle Monangai CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 2 | 51.9 | 17–93 | 13.2 | 26% |
| D'Andre Swift CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 1 | 51.7 | 22–86 | 13.8 | 22% |
| Bhayshul Tuten JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 1 | 48.3 | 22–78 | 13.2 | 50% |
| Ollie Gordon II MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 1 | 47.3 | 8–97 | 12.9 | 24% |
| Josh Allen BUF @ MIN | QB | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 29.9 | 7–57 | 5.6 | 22% |
| Kyler Murray MIN vs BUF | QB | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 27.0 | 2–58 | 4.1 | 19% |
| Malik Willis MIA vs DET | QB | MIA vs DET | 1 | 25.6 | 3–55 | 4.3 | 22% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 2 | 25.3 | 7–47 | 6.1 | 13% |
| Kenny Gainwell TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 2 | 25.0 | 3–53 | 6.6 | 29% |
| Lamar Jackson CHART BAL vs JAX | QB | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 24.1 | 5–47 | 4.4 | 14% |
| Tyler Huntley BAL vs JAX | QB | BAL vs JAX | 2 | 18.8 | 3–38 | 3.8 | 15% |
| Jalon Daniels TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 2 | 17.3 | 0–40 | 3.3 | 8% |
| Caleb Williams CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 1 | 16.8 | 0–39 | 3.3 | 13% |
| Sean Tucker TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 3 | 16.5 | 0–40 | 4.3 | 19% |
| Roschon Johnson CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 3 | 16.0 | 1–35 | 4.8 | 25% |
| Jaylen Wright MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 2 | 14.1 | 0–34 | 4.0 | |
| Baker Mayfield CHART TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 1 | 13.5 | 0–34 | 2.4 | 8% |
| Trevor Lawrence JAX @ BAL | QB | JAX vs BAL | 1 | 13.2 | 0–30 | 2.7 | 17% |
| Kyle McCord MIA vs DET | QB | MIA vs DET | 2 | 13.1 | 0–30 | 2.5 | 14% |
| Kaytron Allen MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 3 | 13.1 | 1–28 | 3.4 | 12% |
| Justin Jackson DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 13.0 | 0–29 | 3.1 | 8% | |
| Miller Moss CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 11.6 | 0–27 | 2.4 | 13% | |
| Joe Fagnano BAL vs JAX | QB | BAL vs JAX | 3 | 11.2 | 0–26 | 2.4 | 13% |
| Justice Hill BAL vs JAX | RB | BAL vs JAX | 2 | 11.0 | 0–28 | 2.7 | 9% |
| Rasheen Ali BAL vs JAX | RB | BAL vs JAX | 3 | 10.9 | 0–24 | 3.2 | 12% |
| Carson Wentz MIN vs BUF | QB | MIN vs BUF | 2 | 10.3 | 0–25 | 2.2 | 9% |
| Demond Claiborne MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 3 | 9.9 | 0–22 | 2.6 | |
| Josh Williams TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 9.8 | 0–23 | 2.7 | 8% | |
| Ray Davis BUF @ MIN | RB | BUF vs MIN | 3 | 9.3 | 0–23 | 2.4 | 6% |
| Easton Stick TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 9.1 | 0–23 | 1.9 | 9% | |
| Ty Johnson BUF @ MIN | RB | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 8.8 | 0–21 | 2.2 | 8% |
| Sione Vaki DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 2 | 8.4 | 0–21 | 2.2 | 4% |
| Malik Washington MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 1 | 7.3 | 0–20 | 1.4 | 14% |
| Case Keenum CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 3 | 6.8 | 0–19 | 1.5 | 11% |
| Tyson Bagent CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 2 | 6.2 | 0–18 | 1.3 | 8% |
| Joshua Dobbs DET @ MIA | QB | DET vs MIA | 2 | 6.1 | 0–19 | 1.1 | 7% |
| Max Brosmer MIN vs BUF | QB | MIN vs BUF | 3 | 5.8 | 0–17 | 1.1 | 6% |
| Kyle Allen BUF @ MIN | QB | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 5.8 | 0–17 | 1.1 | 8% |
| Ameer Abdullah JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 4 | 5.6 | 0–17 | 1.3 | 6% |
| Quinn Ewers JAX @ BAL | QB | JAX vs BAL | 2 | 5.2 | 0–15 | 1.1 | 6% |
| Carlos Washington MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 4.9 | 0–14 | 1.2 | 7% | |
| Max Bredeson MIN vs BUF | RB | MIN vs BUF | 4.9 | 0–13 | 1.2 | 6% | |
| Jacob Saylors DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 3 | 4.7 | 0–13 | 1.1 | 5% |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 3 | 4.6 | 0–13 | 1.2 | 9% |
| Jared Goff DET @ MIA | QB | DET vs MIA | 1 | 4.5 | 0–14 | 1.0 | 7% |
| Nick Mullens JAX @ BAL | QB | JAX vs BAL | 3.8 | 0–12 | 0.8 | 5% | |
| DJ Herman MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 3.5 | 0–11 | 0.9 | 6% | |
| Jordan Addison MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 2 | 3.5 | 0–12 | 0.6 | 17% |
| Luther Burden III CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 2 | 3.4 | 0–13 | 0.8 | 20% |
| DJ Moore CHART BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 1 | 2.8 | 0–11 | 0.6 | 20% |
| Zay Flowers BAL vs JAX | WR | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 2.5 | 0–9 | 0.5 | 25% |
| Tez Johnson TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 4 | 2.1 | 0–9 | 0.5 | 16% |
| Emeka Egbuka TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 1 | 1.9 | 0–8 | 0.4 | 27% |
| Chris Bell MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 3 | 1.9 | 0–7 | 0.3 | 8% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 1 | 1.6 | 0–6 | 0.3 | 37% |
| Justin Jefferson MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 1.5 | 0–6 | 0.3 | 42% |
| Chris Godwin Jr. TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 2 | 1.0 | 0–1 | 0.2 | 11% |
| Greg Dortch BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 5 | 0.7 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 5% |
| Parker Washington JAX @ BAL | WR | JAX vs BAL | 1 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 23% |
| Jakobi Meyers JAX @ BAL | WR | JAX vs BAL | 2 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 18% |
| Myles Price MIN vs BUF | WR | MIN vs BUF | 5 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 8% |
| Zavion Thomas CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 4 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Kalif Raymond CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 3 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 9% |
| Dawson Knox BUF @ MIN | TE | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 22% |
| Jameson Williams DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 2 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 24% |
| Mark Andrews BAL vs JAX | TE | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 21% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. JAX @ BAL | WR | JAX vs BAL | 4 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 13% |
| Kameron Johnson TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 6 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| Tyler Conklin DET @ MIA | TE | DET vs MIA | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| Khalil Shakir BUF @ MIN | WR | BUF vs MIN | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 22% |
| Greg Dulcich MIA vs DET | TE | MIA vs DET | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 27% |
| T.J. Hockenson MIN vs BUF | TE | MIN vs BUF | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 23% |
| Colston Loveland CHI vs TB | TE | CHI vs TB | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 35% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, SEA, SF, TB, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →