| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Car ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 1 | 81.8 | 43–128 | 18.6 | 27% |
| Jaylen Warren PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 1 | 81.4 | 38–131 | 16.1 | 28% |
| Kenneth Walker III KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 1 | 78.5 | 34–130 | 17.2 | 51% |
| Chuba Hubbard CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 1 | 77.7 | 39–122 | 16.4 | 52% |
| Christian McCaffrey SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 76.1 | 37–122 | 14.7 | 39% |
| Javonte Williams DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 1 | 62.5 | 23–110 | 17.5 | 44% |
| Quinshon Judkins CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 47.2 | 21–78 | 14.2 | 45% |
| Chase Brown CIN vs PIT | RB | CIN vs PIT | 1 | 47.1 | 20–80 | 13.1 | 21% |
| Woody Marks HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 1 | 46.5 | 13–87 | 12.1 | 35% |
| Kaelon Black SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 2 | 45.1 | 15–82 | 9.4 | 11% |
| Rico Dowdle PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 41.2 | 15–72 | 9.1 | 14% |
| Kendre Miller NO vs CAR | RB | NO vs CAR | 2 | 40.6 | 10–77 | 9.8 | 16% |
| David Montgomery HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 2 | 33.9 | 7–65 | 7.5 | 27% |
| Jawhar Jordan HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 31.4 | 8–62 | 6.7 | 10% | |
| Alvin Kamara CHART NO vs CAR | RB | NO vs CAR | 1 | 28.8 | 9–52 | 6.7 | 24% |
| Audric Estimé CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 24.9 | 8–44 | 6.6 | 16% | |
| Brian Robinson ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 2 | 21.2 | 1–48 | 5.5 | 31% |
| Brock Purdy CHART SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 20.7 | 2–44 | 3.3 | 17% |
| Patrick Mahomes KC @ ATL | QB | KC vs ATL | 1 | 19.5 | 1–41 | 2.7 | 12% |
| Justin Fields KC @ ATL | QB | KC vs ATL | 2 | 18.7 | 1–40 | 3.2 | 12% |
| Samaje Perine CIN vs PIT | RB | CIN vs PIT | 2 | 18.7 | 3–38 | 5.0 | 9% |
| CJ Donaldson NO vs CAR | RB | NO vs CAR | 3 | 18.1 | 2–39 | 3.7 | 8% |
| AJ Dillon CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 4 | 17.6 | 3–34 | 4.4 | |
| Jordan James SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 3 | 17.4 | 1–37 | 3.5 | 6% |
| Tyler Goodson DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 17.2 | 0–42 | 4.6 | 9% |
| Tyler Shough NO vs CAR | QB | NO vs CAR | 1 | 17.0 | 0–41 | 2.9 | 20% |
| Emmett Johnson KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 2 | 16.5 | 0–39 | 3.8 | 9% |
| Garrett Nussmeier KC @ ATL | QB | KC vs ATL | 3 | 16.4 | 1–37 | 2.9 | 13% |
| Dylan Sampson CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 2 | 16.3 | 2–34 | 4.7 | 13% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 3 | 16.2 | 0–40 | 3.6 | 22% |
| Kurtis Rourke SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 3 | 15.4 | 0–36 | 2.4 | 11% |
| Deshaun Watson CLE vs HOU | QB | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 15.0 | 0–40 | 3.0 | 14% |
| Khalil Herbert ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 14.8 | 2–32 | 3.8 | 20% | |
| Haynes King CAR @ NO | QB | CAR vs NO | 3 | 14.8 | 0–34 | 2.4 | 13% |
| Will Howard PIT @ CIN | QB | PIT vs CIN | 3 | 14.0 | 0–33 | 2.4 | 14% |
| Drew Allar PIT @ CIN | QB | PIT vs CIN | 4 | 13.6 | 0–32 | 2.4 | 14% |
| Trevor Etienne CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 2 | 13.2 | 0–31 | 2.9 | |
| Anthony Tyus III CAR @ NO | RB | CAR vs NO | 3 | 13.0 | 0–30 | 2.7 | 13% |
| Taylen Green CLE vs HOU | QB | CLE vs HOU | 4 | 12.7 | 0–30 | 2.4 | 13% |
| Jaydn Ott KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 3 | 12.6 | 0–28 | 2.9 | 10% |
| Jack Strand ATL vs KC | QB | ATL vs KC | 4 | 12.3 | 0–28 | 2.4 | 13% |
| C.J. Stroud CHART HOU @ CLE | QB | HOU vs CLE | 1 | 11.9 | 0–30 | 2.1 | 10% |
| Joe Burrow CHART CIN vs PIT | QB | CIN vs PIT | 1 | 11.3 | 0–27 | 2.4 | 15% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 2 | 11.2 | 0–30 | 2.0 | 27% |
| Dak Prescott DAL vs SF | QB | DAL vs SF | 1 | 10.9 | 0–27 | 2.3 | 17% |
| Bryce Young CAR @ NO | QB | CAR vs NO | 1 | 9.7 | 0–26 | 1.4 | 10% |
| Michael Penix Jr. ATL vs KC | QB | ATL vs KC | 1 | 8.3 | 0–25 | 1.8 | 11% |
| Spencer Rattler NO vs CAR | QB | NO vs CAR | 2 | 8.3 | 0–22 | 1.2 | 6% |
| Davis Mills HOU @ CLE | QB | HOU vs CLE | 2 | 8.1 | 0–22 | 1.3 | 8% |
| Zach Wilson NO vs CAR | QB | NO vs CAR | 3 | 8.0 | 0–22 | 1.2 | 10% |
| Kenny Pickett CAR @ NO | QB | CAR vs NO | 2 | 7.7 | 0–21 | 1.4 | 8% |
| Travis Homer PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 3 | 7.4 | 0–20 | 1.7 | |
| Sam Howell DAL vs SF | QB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 7.1 | 0–19 | 1.4 | 11% |
| Shedeur Sanders CLE vs HOU | QB | CLE vs HOU | 2 | 7.0 | 0–18 | 1.2 | 7% |
| Tahj Brooks CIN vs PIT | RB | CIN vs PIT | 3 | 6.8 | 0–16 | 2.0 | 6% |
| Dillon Gabriel CLE vs HOU | QB | CLE vs HOU | 3 | 6.7 | 0–18 | 1.3 | 7% |
| Lew Nichols III PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 4 | 6.3 | 0–16 | 1.5 | 7% |
| Josh Johnson CIN vs PIT | QB | CIN vs PIT | 6.3 | 0–17 | 1.3 | 7% | |
| Ben VanSumeren KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 6.1 | 0–16 | 1.4 | 9% | |
| KC Concepcion CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 2 | 6.1 | 0–18 | 1.3 | 11% |
| Mac Jones SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 2 | 6.0 | 0–17 | 1.1 | |
| Eli Heidenreich PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 5 | 5.6 | 0–15 | 1.3 | 7% |
| Mason Rudolph PIT @ CIN | QB | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 5.2 | 0–15 | 1.0 | 6% |
| Aaron Rodgers PIT @ CIN | QB | PIT vs CIN | 1 | 5.1 | 0–15 | 0.9 | 7% |
| Andy Dalton ATL vs KC | QB | ATL vs KC | 3 | 4.0 | 0–13 | 0.8 | |
| Xavier Hutchinson HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 3 | 4.0 | 0–14 | 0.7 | 8% |
| Dare Ogunbowale HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 4 | 3.7 | 0–12 | 1.0 | |
| Joe Flacco CIN vs PIT | QB | CIN vs PIT | 2 | 3.5 | 0–11 | 0.8 | 5% |
| Tua Tagovailoa ATL vs KC | QB | ATL vs KC | 2 | 3.4 | 0–11 | 0.8 | 6% |
| Hunter Luepke DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 3.2 | 0–10 | 0.9 | 7% | |
| Cade Stover HOU @ CLE | TE | HOU vs CLE | 3 | 2.7 | 0–8 | 0.9 | 14% |
| Jacob Cowing SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 6 | 2.5 | 0–10 | 0.4 | |
| Nico Collins HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 1 | 2.3 | 0–8 | 0.4 | 30% |
| KaVontae Turpin DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 4 | 2.0 | 0–6 | 0.4 | 7% |
| Jaylin Noel HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 7 | 1.6 | 0–5 | 0.3 | 17% |
| Zachariah Branch ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 4 | 1.5 | 0–5 | 0.3 | |
| Pat Freiermuth PIT @ CIN | TE | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 1.5 | 0–3 | 0.4 | 29% |
| Ryan Flournoy DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 3 | 1.4 | 0–5 | 0.3 | 22% |
| Barion Brown NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 4 | 1.2 | 0–1 | 0.2 | 5% |
| Charlie Woerner ATL vs KC | TE | ATL vs KC | 2 | 1.0 | 0–2 | 0.3 | 10% |
| Malachi Corley CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 5 | 0.8 | 0–1 | 0.1 | |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 1 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 35% |
| Xavier Worthy KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 2 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 15% |
| Drake London ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 1 | 0.5 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 16% |
| Rashee Rice KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 1 | 0.5 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 29% |
| DK Metcalf PIT @ CIN | WR | PIT vs CIN | 1 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 25% |
| Germie Bernard PIT @ CIN | WR | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 30% |
| Dohnte Meyers CIN vs PIT | WR | CIN vs PIT | 3 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 9% |
| David Moore CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 5 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Nikko Remigio KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 6 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Mitchell Evans CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 3 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 17% |
| Isaiah Bond CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 6 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| Feleipe Franks CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 4 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Olamide Zaccheaus ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 16% |
| Ja'Marr Chase CIN vs PIT | WR | CIN vs PIT | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 56% |
| John Metchie III CAR @ NO | WR | CAR vs NO | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 14% |
| Michael Burton CLE vs HOU | FB | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. CLE vs HOU | TE | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 18% |
| Chris Olave NO vs CAR | WR | NO vs CAR | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 28% |
| Kyle Juszczyk SF @ DAL | FB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 15% |
| Darren Waller CAR @ NO | TE | CAR vs NO | 2 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 14% |
| Jerry Jeudy CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 7% |
| Travis Kelce KC @ ATL | TE | KC vs ATL | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 13% |
| George Kittle SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 34% |
| Drew Sample CIN vs PIT | TE | CIN vs PIT | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 9% |
| Jake Ferguson DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 18% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PIT, SEA, SF, TEN, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →