| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Tgt ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase CIN @ ATL | WR | CIN vs ATL | 1 | 91.5 | 33–160 | 9.9 | 57% |
| Drake London ATL vs CIN | WR | ATL vs CIN | 1 | 78.8 | 25–141 | 9.0 | 18% |
| Tee Higgins CIN @ ATL | WR | CIN vs ATL | 2 | 77.6 | 19–148 | 8.1 | 22% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 1 | 77.6 | 31–131 | 9.0 | 37% |
| Christian Watson CHART GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 1 | 74.7 | 19–141 | 7.5 | 28% |
| George Kittle SF vs LV | TE | SF vs LV | 1 | 69.6 | 18–131 | 6.9 | 34% |
| Tetairoa McMillan CAR vs DEN | WR | CAR vs DEN | 1 | 69.2 | 20–126 | 8.2 | 26% |
| Nico Collins HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 1 | 67.4 | 15–130 | 6.9 | 27% |
| Matthew Golden GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 2 | 65.9 | 13–130 | 8.2 | 23% |
| Brock Bowers LV @ SF | TE | LV vs SF | 1 | 63.6 | 20–112 | 8.3 | 31% |
| A.J. Brown NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 1 | 60.5 | 16–114 | 6.9 | 24% |
| Jalen Coker CAR vs DEN | WR | CAR vs DEN | 2 | 58.6 | 15–112 | 6.6 | 14% |
| Jameson Williams DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 2 | 57.7 | 12–113 | 5.9 | 24% |
| Tucker Kraft GB @ NE | TE | GB vs NE | 1 | 54.7 | 13–107 | 6.2 | 29% |
| Caleb Douglas MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 2 | 54.7 | 8–115 | 5.3 | 41% |
| Tre Tucker LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 1 | 51.1 | 7–107 | 6.6 | 21% |
| Sam LaPorta DET @ MIA | TE | DET vs MIA | 1 | 48.9 | 7–102 | 6.0 | 31% |
| Jaylen Waddle DEN @ CAR | WR | DEN vs CAR | 1 | 47.2 | 10–91 | 5.7 | 23% |
| Mike Evans SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 1 | 47.1 | 7–97 | 5.4 | 22% |
| Malik Washington MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 1 | 43.6 | 8–86 | 5.8 | 14% |
| Greg Dulcich MIA vs DET | TE | MIA vs DET | 1 | 42.8 | 6–88 | 4.7 | 27% |
| Courtland Sutton DEN @ CAR | WR | DEN vs CAR | 2 | 42.7 | 8–84 | 5.7 | 28% |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith CHART LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 4 | 40.7 | 6–81 | 5.6 | 14% |
| Kyle Pitts ATL vs CIN | TE | ATL vs CIN | 1 | 40.4 | 4–85 | 5.0 | 24% |
| Christian McCaffrey SF vs LV | RB | SF vs LV | 1 | 39.1 | 9–75 | 5.7 | 37% |
| Dalton Schultz HOU @ LAC | TE | HOU vs LAC | 1 | 38.4 | 10–73 | 5.6 | 18% |
| Hunter Henry NE vs GB | TE | NE vs GB | 1 | 38.0 | 7–77 | 5.2 | 33% |
| Quentin Johnston LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 36.6 | 0–87 | 4.5 | 15% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 2 | 35.2 | 1–78 | 4.2 | 26% |
| Tre Harris LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 3 | 35.2 | 2–75 | 4.1 | 10% |
| Michael Mayer LV @ SF | TE | LV vs SF | 2 | 35.1 | 8–67 | 5.2 | 11% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 1 | 33.6 | 7–66 | 5.5 | 50% |
| DeMario Douglas NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 2 | 32.0 | 0–71 | 4.3 | 10% |
| Bijan Robinson ATL vs CIN | RB | ATL vs CIN | 1 | 30.5 | 3–67 | 4.6 | 28% |
| Ashton Jeanty LV @ SF | RB | LV vs SF | 1 | 30.0 | 5–62 | 5.5 | 48% |
| Jaylin Noel HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 4 | 30.0 | 0–68 | 3.3 | 18% |
| Josh Jacobs GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 1 | 29.6 | 6–59 | 4.5 | 54% |
| Xavier Hutchinson HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 3 | 29.2 | 0–63 | 4.5 | 8% |
| Ladd McConkey CHART LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 1 | 28.7 | 0–72 | 3.1 | 17% |
| Oronde Gadsden II LAC vs HOU | TE | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 27.6 | 0–61 | 3.3 | 27% |
| Jahan Dotson ATL vs CIN | WR | ATL vs CIN | 2 | 26.4 | 0–59 | 3.5 | 16% |
| Savion Williams GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 3 | 26.3 | 0–59 | 3.1 | 9% |
| Eli Raridon NE vs GB | TE | NE vs GB | 2 | 26.3 | 0–59 | 3.3 | 31% |
| Chase Brown CIN @ ATL | RB | CIN vs ATL | 1 | 25.9 | 2–54 | 4.4 | 21% |
| Brandon Aiyuk SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 10 | 25.3 | 0–59 | 2.4 | 11% |
| Chris Bell MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 3 | 25.1 | 0–61 | 3.0 | 8% |
| Darren Waller CAR vs DEN | TE | CAR vs DEN | 2 | 25.1 | 0–59 | 3.3 | 15% |
| Charlie Kolar CHART LAC vs HOU | TE | LAC vs HOU | 1 | 25.0 | 0–62 | 2.9 | 11% |
| Theo Wease Jr. LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 6 | 24.6 | 0–60 | 2.6 | 13% |
| Kayshon Boutte HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 6 | 24.5 | 0–56 | 2.9 | 11% |
| RJ Harvey DEN @ CAR | RB | DEN vs CAR | 2 | 22.8 | 0–52 | 3.9 | 34% |
| Jalen Nailor LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 2 | 21.9 | 0–56 | 2.9 | 17% |
| Dohnte Meyers CIN @ ATL | WR | CIN vs ATL | 3 | 20.5 | 0–54 | 2.5 | 6% |
| Isaac TeSlaa DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 3 | 20.1 | 0–56 | 2.4 | 16% |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 4 | 19.9 | 0–53 | 2.6 | 21% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 2 | 19.8 | 0–49 | 2.6 | 13% |
| Tommy Tremble CHART CAR vs DEN | TE | CAR vs DEN | 1 | 19.7 | 0–46 | 2.9 | 15% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE vs GB | RB | NE vs GB | 1 | 19.4 | 0–47 | 3.2 | 18% |
| Jordan Watkins SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 3 | 19.1 | 0–50 | 2.1 | |
| Efton Chism III NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 3 | 19.0 | 0–51 | 2.3 | 9% |
| Mike Gesicki CIN @ ATL | TE | CIN vs ATL | 1 | 18.7 | 0–49 | 2.4 | 18% |
| John Metchie III CAR vs DEN | WR | CAR vs DEN | 4 | 17.8 | 0–41 | 2.7 | 10% |
| Erick All CIN @ ATL | TE | CIN vs ATL | 3 | 17.2 | 0–45 | 2.3 | 6% |
| Evan Engram DEN @ CAR | TE | DEN vs CAR | 1 | 17.0 | 0–39 | 2.8 | 9% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. DEN @ CAR | WR | DEN vs CAR | 4 | 16.4 | 0–48 | 2.1 | 7% |
| Tank Dell HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 5 | 16.0 | 0–42 | 1.9 | |
| Troy Franklin DEN @ CAR | WR | DEN vs CAR | 3 | 15.7 | 0–40 | 2.5 | 19% |
| Brandin Cooks SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 4 | 15.7 | 0–41 | 2.1 | 11% |
| Cody White LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 3 | 15.7 | 0–42 | 1.9 | 11% |
| Woody Marks HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 2 | 15.4 | 0–38 | 2.8 | 35% |
| Jacob Cowing SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 6 | 15.2 | 0–43 | 1.8 | |
| Zachariah Branch ATL vs CIN | WR | ATL vs CIN | 4 | 15.0 | 0–42 | 1.9 | 7% |
| Chuba Hubbard CAR vs DEN | RB | CAR vs DEN | 1 | 14.9 | 0–35 | 3.0 | 52% |
| Pierre Strong GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 3 | 14.3 | 0–36 | 2.6 | 7% |
| Mitchell Evans CAR vs DEN | TE | CAR vs DEN | 3 | 14.0 | 0–35 | 1.9 | 14% |
| Kyle Williams NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 4 | 13.7 | 0–42 | 1.6 | 6% |
| Foster Moreau HOU @ LAC | TE | HOU vs LAC | 2 | 13.2 | 0–35 | 1.8 | 17% |
| Brycen Tremayne CAR vs DEN | WR | CAR vs DEN | 3 | 13.0 | 0–39 | 1.5 | 11% |
| Kyle Juszczyk SF vs LV | FB | SF vs LV | 1 | 13.0 | 0–35 | 1.9 | 18% |
| Omarion Hampton LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 1 | 13.0 | 0–34 | 2.2 | 20% |
| Mitchell Tinsley CIN @ ATL | WR | CIN vs ATL | 4 | 12.6 | 0–41 | 1.7 | 16% |
| Jonah Coleman CHART DEN @ CAR | RB | DEN vs CAR | 1 | 12.3 | 0–32 | 2.2 | 18% |
| Samaje Perine CIN @ ATL | RB | CIN vs ATL | 2 | 12.0 | 0–33 | 1.7 | 13% |
| Austin Hooper ATL vs CIN | TE | ATL vs CIN | 3 | 12.0 | 0–31 | 1.5 | 15% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus ATL vs CIN | WR | ATL vs CIN | 3 | 11.9 | 0–32 | 1.7 | 9% |
| Keaton Mitchell LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 11.5 | 0–31 | 1.9 | 9% |
| Jared Wayne MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 6 | 10.9 | 0–38 | 1.3 | |
| Drew Sample CIN @ ATL | TE | CIN vs ATL | 2 | 10.9 | 0–29 | 1.6 | 10% |
| MarShawn Lloyd GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 2 | 10.7 | 0–29 | 2.0 | 23% |
| Ja'Seem Reed CAR vs DEN | WR | CAR vs DEN | 10.2 | 0–30 | 1.3 | 11% | |
| Kimani Vidal LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 3 | 10.1 | 0–29 | 1.7 | 25% |
| Brenen Thompson LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 5 | 10.0 | 0–30 | 1.2 | |
| Will Kacmarek MIA vs DET | TE | MIA vs DET | 2 | 9.8 | 0–29 | 1.3 | |
| Jalen Tolbert MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 5 | 9.7 | 0–32 | 1.2 | 12% |
| Jonnu Smith GB @ NE | TE | GB vs NE | 2 | 9.7 | 0–27 | 1.3 | 5% |
| David Montgomery CHART HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 1 | 9.6 | 0–27 | 1.5 | 29% |
| Brock Wright DET @ MIA | TE | DET vs MIA | 2 | 9.4 | 0–26 | 1.4 | 7% |
| Bo Melton GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 4 | 9.4 | 0–29 | 1.2 | |
| Ollie Gordon II MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 1 | 9.0 | 0–25 | 1.5 | 24% |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders CAR vs DEN | TE | CAR vs DEN | 5 | 8.9 | 0–26 | 1.3 | |
| David Moore CAR vs DEN | WR | CAR vs DEN | 5 | 8.7 | 0–25 | 1.2 | |
| Christian Kirk SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 5 | 8.6 | 0–28 | 1.1 | 5% |
| Justin Joly MIA vs DET | TE | MIA vs DET | 4 | 8.1 | 0–25 | 1.0 | 6% |
| TreVeyon Henderson NE vs GB | RB | NE vs GB | 2 | 7.6 | 0–20 | 1.4 | 14% |
| James Thompson SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 7.5 | 0–24 | 0.9 | ||
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey DEN @ CAR | WR | DEN vs CAR | 5 | 7.5 | 0–24 | 1.1 | |
| Brian Robinson ATL vs CIN | RB | ATL vs CIN | 2 | 7.5 | 0–23 | 1.1 | 36% |
| J.K. Dobbins CHART DEN @ CAR | RB | DEN vs CAR | 3 | 7.3 | 0–20 | 1.7 | 20% |
| Malik Benson LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 5 | 7.3 | 0–24 | 1.1 | 11% |
| Adam Trautman DEN @ CAR | TE | DEN vs CAR | 2 | 7.2 | 0–22 | 1.1 | 11% |
| Jalen Hurd NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 7.1 | 0–22 | 0.9 | 6% | |
| Mark Redman GB @ NE | TE | GB vs NE | 3 | 7.1 | 0–22 | 1.0 | |
| Jawhar Jordan HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 7.0 | 0–20 | 1.3 | 9% | |
| Deven Thompkins LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 6.9 | 0–22 | 1.0 | ||
| Kolbe Katsis DEN @ CAR | WR | DEN vs CAR | 6.7 | 0–22 | 0.9 | ||
| Charlie Woerner ATL vs CIN | TE | ATL vs CIN | 2 | 6.6 | 0–21 | 1.0 | 11% |
| Khalil Herbert ATL vs CIN | RB | ATL vs CIN | 6.5 | 0–20 | 1.3 | 20% | |
| Kaelon Black SF vs LV | RB | SF vs LV | 2 | 6.5 | 0–20 | 1.2 | 11% |
| Cade Stover HOU @ LAC | TE | HOU vs LAC | 3 | 6.4 | 0–20 | 1.0 | 13% |
| Luke Farrell SF vs LV | TE | SF vs LV | 2 | 6.4 | 0–18 | 0.9 | 5% |
| Mike Washington Jr. LV @ SF | RB | LV vs SF | 2 | 6.4 | 0–19 | 1.2 | 15% |
| Ian Thomas LV @ SF | TE | LV vs SF | 3 | 6.3 | 0–20 | 0.9 | |
| DJ Herman MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 6.3 | 0–21 | 1.0 | 6% | |
| Coleman Owen GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 6 | 6.1 | 0–20 | 0.8 | 4% |
| Dallen Bentley DEN @ CAR | TE | DEN vs CAR | 4 | 6.1 | 0–20 | 0.9 | |
| Nate Adkins DEN @ CAR | TE | DEN vs CAR | 3 | 5.9 | 0–20 | 0.9 | 14% |
| DeAndre Carter DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 5 | 5.6 | 0–18 | 0.8 | 3% |
| Dylan Laube LV @ SF | RB | LV vs SF | 3 | 5.6 | 0–19 | 1.0 | 7% |
| Lewis Bond HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 5.4 | 0–18 | 0.7 | ||
| Trevor Etienne CAR vs DEN | RB | CAR vs DEN | 2 | 5.4 | 0–16 | 1.0 | |
| Roman Hemby LV @ SF | RB | LV vs SF | 5.3 | 0–17 | 0.9 | 11% | |
| J. Michael Sturdivant GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 5 | 5.2 | 0–18 | 0.7 | |
| Nick Muse ATL vs CIN | TE | ATL vs CIN | 4 | 5.2 | 0–20 | 0.7 | 9% |
| Colbie Young CIN @ ATL | WR | CIN vs ATL | 5 | 5.1 | 0–18 | 0.6 | |
| AJ Dillon CAR vs DEN | RB | CAR vs DEN | 4 | 5.1 | 0–17 | 0.8 | |
| Sione Vaki DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 2 | 5.0 | 0–17 | 0.8 | 4% |
| Tyler Conklin DET @ MIA | TE | DET vs MIA | 3 | 5.0 | 0–18 | 0.7 | |
| Marlin Klein HOU @ LAC | TE | HOU vs LAC | 5 | 4.9 | 0–16 | 0.7 | |
| Chris Blair ATL vs CIN | WR | ATL vs CIN | 5 | 4.9 | 0–18 | 0.6 | |
| Corey Kiner NE vs GB | RB | NE vs GB | 3 | 4.8 | 0–16 | 0.9 | 22% |
| Jordan James SF vs LV | RB | SF vs LV | 3 | 4.8 | 0–15 | 0.8 | 6% |
| Tanner Arkin NE vs GB | TE | NE vs GB | 4 | 4.7 | 0–16 | 0.7 | |
| Seydou Traore MIA vs DET | TE | MIA vs DET | 3 | 4.7 | 0–16 | 0.6 | |
| Justin Jackson DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 4.7 | 0–15 | 0.8 | 8% | |
| Derius Davis LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 7 | 4.6 | 0–18 | 0.6 | |
| Josh Whyle GB @ NE | TE | GB vs NE | 4 | 4.6 | 0–15 | 0.6 | 4% |
| Brevin Jordan HOU @ LAC | TE | HOU vs LAC | 4 | 4.5 | 0–15 | 0.6 | |
| Anthony Tyus III CAR vs DEN | RB | CAR vs DEN | 3 | 4.3 | 0–14 | 0.8 | 11% |
| Jack Endries CIN @ ATL | TE | CIN vs ATL | 5 | 4.3 | 0–15 | 0.5 | |
| Hayden Rucci LAC vs HOU | TE | LAC vs HOU | 3 | 4.2 | 0–15 | 0.5 | 8% |
| Kaytron Allen MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 3 | 4.2 | 0–15 | 0.6 | 12% |
| Jackson Meeks DET @ MIA | TE | DET vs MIA | 4 | 4.1 | 0–15 | 0.6 | |
| Carlos Washington MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 3.7 | 0–13 | 0.5 | 7% | |
| Patrick Herbert LAC vs HOU | TE | LAC vs HOU | 3.6 | 0–13 | 0.5 | ||
| Jaylen Wright MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 2 | 3.6 | 0–14 | 0.6 | |
| Tahj Brooks CIN @ ATL | RB | CIN vs ATL | 3 | 3.5 | 0–12 | 0.5 | 7% |
| Malik Turner SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 3.4 | 0–12 | 0.4 | ||
| Tay Martin DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 4 | 3.2 | 0–12 | 0.4 | 3% |
| Jack Stoll SF vs LV | TE | SF vs LV | 3.0 | 0–11 | 0.4 | ||
| Connor Heyward LV @ SF | FB | LV vs SF | 1 | 2.9 | 0–12 | 0.5 | |
| Dare Ogunbowale HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 3 | 2.7 | 0–11 | 0.5 | |
| Chris Myarick LV @ SF | TE | LV vs SF | 2.6 | 0–10 | 0.4 | ||
| Kaleb Johnson GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 4 | 2.3 | 0–8 | 0.4 | 4% |
| Dareke Young LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 4 | 2.2 | 0–7 | 0.3 | |
| Feleipe Franks CAR vs DEN | TE | CAR vs DEN | 4 | 2.0 | 0–8 | 0.3 | |
| Cameron Latu NE vs GB | TE | NE vs GB | 3 | 2.0 | 0–8 | 0.3 | |
| Jacob Saylors DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 3 | 1.9 | 0–7 | 0.3 | 5% |
| Brayden Willis SF vs LV | TE | SF vs LV | 3 | 1.9 | 0–7 | 0.3 | |
| Scott Matlock LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 1.8 | 0–7 | 0.3 | ||
| Adam Prentice DEN @ CAR | FB | DEN vs CAR | 1 | 1.7 | 0–7 | 0.3 | |
| Justin Herbert LAC vs HOU | QB | LAC vs HOU | 1 | 0.5 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 34% |
| Sam Ehlinger DEN @ CAR | QB | DEN vs CAR | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 9% |
| Jarrett Stidham DEN @ CAR | QB | DEN vs CAR | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 6% |
| Aidan O'Connell LV @ SF | QB | LV vs SF | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 9% |
| Josh Johnson CIN @ ATL | QB | CIN vs ATL | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 7% | |
| Davis Mills HOU @ LAC | QB | HOU vs LAC | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 8% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, SEA, SF, TB, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →