| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Car ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 1 | 96.3 | 40–160 | 19.1 | 50% |
| Jonathan Taylor IND vs DAL | RB | IND vs DAL | 1 | 91.4 | 44–150 | 17.6 | 33% |
| Kenneth Walker III KC vs NYJ | RB | KC vs NYJ | 1 | 82.6 | 36–137 | 18.0 | 51% |
| Javonte Williams DAL @ IND | RB | DAL vs IND | 1 | 69.0 | 32–110 | 15.8 | 38% |
| Bucky Irving TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 1 | 65.1 | 26–111 | 16.3 | 44% |
| Braelon Allen NYJ @ KC | RB | NYJ vs KC | 2 | 64.1 | 29–104 | 16.6 | 54% |
| Breece Hall CHART NYJ @ KC | RB | NYJ vs KC | 1 | 56.3 | 21–99 | 14.2 | 19% |
| Kyle Monangai CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 2 | 51.9 | 17–93 | 13.2 | 26% |
| D'Andre Swift CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 1 | 51.7 | 22–86 | 13.8 | 22% |
| Ollie Gordon II MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 1 | 47.3 | 8–97 | 12.9 | 24% |
| Seth McGowan IND vs DAL | RB | IND vs DAL | 2 | 32.7 | 6–66 | 6.7 | 10% |
| Malik Willis MIA vs DET | QB | MIA vs DET | 1 | 25.6 | 3–55 | 4.3 | 22% |
| Kenny Gainwell TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 2 | 25.0 | 3–53 | 6.6 | 29% |
| Patrick Mahomes KC vs NYJ | QB | KC vs NYJ | 1 | 19.5 | 0–42 | 2.5 | 11% |
| Anthony Richardson IND vs DAL | QB | IND vs DAL | 2 | 17.8 | 0–41 | 2.6 | 20% |
| Jalon Daniels TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 2 | 17.3 | 0–40 | 3.3 | 8% |
| Justin Fields KC vs NYJ | QB | KC vs NYJ | 2 | 17.2 | 0–38 | 2.9 | 10% |
| Emari Demercado DAL @ IND | RB | DAL vs IND | 3 | 16.9 | 0–40 | 2.9 | 7% |
| Caleb Williams CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 1 | 16.8 | 0–39 | 3.3 | 13% |
| Sean Tucker TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 3 | 16.5 | 0–40 | 4.3 | 19% |
| Roschon Johnson CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 3 | 16.0 | 1–35 | 4.8 | 25% |
| Garrett Nussmeier KC vs NYJ | QB | KC vs NYJ | 3 | 15.7 | 0–35 | 2.7 | 12% |
| Emmett Johnson KC vs NYJ | RB | KC vs NYJ | 2 | 15.6 | 0–36 | 3.7 | 8% |
| Tyler Goodson DAL @ IND | RB | DAL vs IND | 2 | 15.1 | 0–38 | 3.2 | 10% |
| Jaylen Wright MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 2 | 14.1 | 0–34 | 4.0 | |
| Isaiah Davis NYJ @ KC | RB | NYJ vs KC | 3 | 14.0 | 0–33 | 3.1 | 8% |
| Daniel Jones IND vs DAL | QB | IND vs DAL | 1 | 14.0 | 0–33 | 2.6 | 13% |
| Baker Mayfield CHART TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 1 | 13.5 | 0–34 | 2.4 | 8% |
| Kyle McCord MIA vs DET | QB | MIA vs DET | 2 | 13.1 | 0–30 | 2.5 | 14% |
| Kaytron Allen MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 3 | 13.1 | 1–28 | 3.4 | 12% |
| Justin Jackson DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 13.0 | 0–29 | 3.1 | 8% | |
| Cade Klubnik NYJ @ KC | QB | NYJ vs KC | 2 | 12.3 | 0–29 | 2.4 | 13% |
| Dak Prescott DAL @ IND | QB | DAL vs IND | 1 | 12.2 | 0–28 | 2.1 | 16% |
| Jaydn Ott KC vs NYJ | RB | KC vs NYJ | 3 | 11.9 | 0–27 | 2.7 | 10% |
| Miller Moss CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 11.6 | 0–27 | 2.4 | 13% | |
| DJ Giddens IND vs DAL | RB | IND vs DAL | 3 | 10.2 | 0–24 | 2.2 | 8% |
| Josh Williams TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 9.8 | 0–23 | 2.7 | 8% | |
| Sam Howell DAL @ IND | QB | DAL vs IND | 2 | 9.6 | 0–25 | 1.6 | 13% |
| Kene Nwangwu NYJ @ KC | RB | NYJ vs KC | 4 | 9.3 | 0–21 | 2.4 | |
| Easton Stick TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 9.1 | 0–23 | 1.9 | 9% | |
| Sione Vaki DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 2 | 8.4 | 0–21 | 2.2 | 4% |
| Will Levis NYJ @ KC | QB | NYJ vs KC | 8.4 | 0–21 | 1.8 | 9% | |
| Geno Smith NYJ @ KC | QB | NYJ vs KC | 1 | 8.0 | 0–24 | 1.6 | |
| Riley Leonard IND vs DAL | QB | IND vs DAL | 3 | 7.6 | 0–21 | 1.2 | 10% |
| Malik Washington MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 1 | 7.3 | 0–20 | 1.4 | 14% |
| Case Keenum CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 3 | 6.8 | 0–19 | 1.5 | 11% |
| Ben VanSumeren KC vs NYJ | RB | KC vs NYJ | 6.7 | 0–18 | 1.5 | 9% | |
| Tyson Bagent CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 2 | 6.2 | 0–18 | 1.3 | 8% |
| Joshua Dobbs DET @ MIA | QB | DET vs MIA | 2 | 6.1 | 0–19 | 1.1 | 7% |
| Hunter Luepke DAL @ IND | RB | DAL vs IND | 5.2 | 0–14 | 1.2 | 8% | |
| Carlos Washington MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 4.9 | 0–14 | 1.2 | 7% | |
| Jacob Saylors DET @ MIA | RB | DET vs MIA | 3 | 4.7 | 0–13 | 1.1 | 5% |
| Jared Goff DET @ MIA | QB | DET vs MIA | 1 | 4.5 | 0–14 | 1.0 | 7% |
| DJ Herman MIA vs DET | RB | MIA vs DET | 3.5 | 0–11 | 0.9 | 6% | |
| Luther Burden III CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 2 | 3.4 | 0–13 | 0.8 | 20% |
| Deion Burks IND vs DAL | WR | IND vs DAL | 5 | 2.8 | 0–11 | 0.5 | |
| KaVontae Turpin DAL @ IND | WR | DAL vs IND | 4 | 2.2 | 0–7 | 0.4 | 8% |
| Isaiah Williams NYJ @ KC | WR | NYJ vs KC | 5 | 2.2 | 0–8 | 0.4 | |
| Tez Johnson TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 4 | 2.1 | 0–9 | 0.5 | 16% |
| Tyler Warren IND vs DAL | TE | IND vs DAL | 1 | 1.9 | 0–5 | 0.5 | 29% |
| Emeka Egbuka TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 1 | 1.9 | 0–8 | 0.4 | 27% |
| Chris Bell MIA vs DET | WR | MIA vs DET | 3 | 1.9 | 0–7 | 0.3 | 8% |
| Josh Downs CHART IND vs DAL | WR | IND vs DAL | 1 | 1.7 | 0–7 | 0.3 | 18% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 1 | 1.6 | 0–6 | 0.3 | 37% |
| Chris Godwin Jr. TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 2 | 1.0 | 0–1 | 0.2 | 11% |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL @ IND | WR | DAL vs IND | 1 | 0.8 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 36% |
| Rashee Rice KC vs NYJ | WR | KC vs NYJ | 1 | 0.7 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 30% |
| Andrew Beck NYJ @ KC | FB | NYJ vs KC | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.3 | 7% | |
| Xavier Worthy KC vs NYJ | WR | KC vs NYJ | 2 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 14% |
| Sterling Shepard NYJ @ KC | WR | NYJ vs KC | 0.5 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 11% | |
| Ashton Dulin IND vs DAL | WR | IND vs DAL | 4 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Nikko Remigio KC vs NYJ | WR | KC vs NYJ | 5 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Zavion Thomas CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 4 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Kalif Raymond CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 3 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 9% |
| Jameson Williams DET @ MIA | WR | DET vs MIA | 2 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 24% |
| Kenyon Sadiq NYJ @ KC | TE | NYJ vs KC | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 9% |
| Ryan Flournoy DAL @ IND | WR | DAL vs IND | 3 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 18% |
| Kameron Johnson TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 6 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| Adonai Mitchell NYJ @ KC | WR | NYJ vs KC | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 9% |
| Tyler Conklin DET @ MIA | TE | DET vs MIA | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| Greg Dulcich MIA vs DET | TE | MIA vs DET | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 27% |
| Travis Kelce KC vs NYJ | TE | KC vs NYJ | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 13% |
| Colston Loveland CHI vs TB | TE | CHI vs TB | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 35% |
| Jake Ferguson DAL @ IND | TE | DAL vs IND | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 21% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, SEA, SF, TB, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →