| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Car ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 1 | 80.3 | 30–143 | 17.1 | 32% |
| Christian McCaffrey SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 76.1 | 37–122 | 14.7 | 39% |
| Kyren Williams LA @ ARI | RB | LA vs ARI | 1 | 69.5 | 34–110 | 14.5 | 45% |
| Ollie Gordon II MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 1 | 64.0 | 17–123 | 15.6 | 26% |
| Javonte Williams DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 1 | 62.5 | 23–110 | 17.5 | 44% |
| Blake Corum LA @ ARI | RB | LA vs ARI | 2 | 53.5 | 15–98 | 11.1 | 30% |
| Quinshon Judkins CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 47.2 | 21–78 | 14.2 | 45% |
| Woody Marks HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 1 | 46.5 | 13–87 | 12.1 | 35% |
| Kaelon Black SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 2 | 45.1 | 15–82 | 9.4 | 11% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt CHART WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 4 | 43.3 | 12–82 | 9.7 | 40% |
| Cam Skattebo NYG vs WAS | RB | NYG vs WAS | 1 | 37.4 | 7–74 | 9.7 | 19% |
| Rachaad White CHART WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 1 | 37.3 | 13–66 | 8.8 | 36% |
| Tyler Allgeier ARI vs LA | RB | ARI vs LA | 2 | 36.3 | 14–63 | 9.2 | 26% |
| Jeremiyah Love ARI vs LA | RB | ARI vs LA | 1 | 35.4 | 12–63 | 9.4 | 21% |
| David Montgomery HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 2 | 33.9 | 7–65 | 7.5 | 27% |
| Jawhar Jordan HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 31.4 | 8–62 | 6.7 | 10% | |
| Seth McGowan IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 2 | 30.0 | 5–62 | 6.9 | 10% |
| Jayden Daniels CHART WAS @ NYG | QB | WAS vs NYG | 1 | 29.8 | 1–65 | 4.6 | 16% |
| Austin Ekeler WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 2 | 25.4 | 6–50 | 6.1 | 29% |
| Bam Knight ARI vs LA | RB | ARI vs LA | 3 | 25.0 | 6–48 | 6.3 | 17% |
| Audric Estimé CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 24.9 | 8–44 | 6.6 | 16% | |
| Malik Willis MIA @ IND | QB | MIA vs IND | 1 | 24.7 | 1–56 | 3.7 | 19% |
| Jeremy McNichols WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 3 | 23.7 | 4–49 | 4.9 | 7% |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG vs WAS | RB | NYG vs WAS | 4 | 20.8 | 2–47 | 5.3 | 20% |
| Brock Purdy CHART SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 20.7 | 2–44 | 3.3 | 17% |
| DJ Giddens IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 3 | 19.6 | 3–38 | 4.6 | 14% |
| Devin Singletary NYG vs WAS | RB | NYG vs WAS | 2 | 19.5 | 5–38 | 5.2 | 20% |
| Athan Kaliakmanis CHART WAS @ NYG | QB | WAS vs NYG | 3 | 19.0 | 2–41 | 3.2 | 14% |
| Kyle McCord MIA @ IND | QB | MIA vs IND | 2 | 18.8 | 1–41 | 3.1 | 16% |
| Jaylen Wright MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 2 | 18.6 | 2–40 | 4.6 | |
| Jordan James SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 3 | 17.4 | 1–37 | 3.5 | 6% |
| Tyler Goodson DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 17.2 | 0–42 | 4.6 | 9% |
| Kaytron Allen MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 3 | 17.1 | 2–36 | 3.9 | 13% |
| Dylan Sampson CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 2 | 16.3 | 2–34 | 4.7 | 13% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin CLE vs HOU | RB | CLE vs HOU | 3 | 16.2 | 0–40 | 3.6 | 22% |
| Anthony Richardson IND vs MIA | QB | IND vs MIA | 2 | 16.1 | 0–36 | 2.7 | 20% |
| Marcus Mariota WAS @ NYG | QB | WAS vs NYG | 2 | 15.7 | 0–38 | 2.4 | 9% |
| Kurtis Rourke SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 3 | 15.4 | 0–36 | 2.4 | 11% |
| Deshaun Watson CLE vs HOU | QB | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 15.0 | 0–40 | 3.0 | 14% |
| Ty Simpson LA @ ARI | QB | LA vs ARI | 3 | 14.8 | 0–34 | 2.5 | 12% |
| Jacoby Brissett CHART ARI vs LA | QB | ARI vs LA | 3 | 13.7 | 0–33 | 2.9 | 26% |
| Carson Beck ARI vs LA | QB | ARI vs LA | 2 | 13.4 | 0–31 | 2.4 | 13% |
| Daniel Jones IND vs MIA | QB | IND vs MIA | 1 | 13.2 | 0–31 | 2.7 | 14% |
| Taylen Green CLE vs HOU | QB | CLE vs HOU | 4 | 12.7 | 0–30 | 2.4 | 13% |
| C.J. Stroud CHART HOU @ CLE | QB | HOU vs CLE | 1 | 11.9 | 0–30 | 2.1 | 10% |
| Dean Connors LA @ ARI | RB | LA vs ARI | 3 | 11.3 | 0–26 | 2.5 | 10% |
| Stetson Bennett LA @ ARI | QB | LA vs ARI | 2 | 11.2 | 0–28 | 1.9 | 10% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 2 | 11.2 | 0–30 | 2.0 | 27% |
| Craig Reynolds WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 11.1 | 0–26 | 2.5 | 4% | |
| Dak Prescott DAL vs SF | QB | DAL vs SF | 1 | 10.9 | 0–27 | 2.3 | 17% |
| J.J. McCarthy CHART NYG vs WAS | QB | NYG vs WAS | 1 | 10.5 | 0–27 | 1.8 | 14% |
| Jameis Winston NYG vs WAS | QB | NYG vs WAS | 2 | 9.0 | 0–24 | 1.9 | 9% |
| Carlos Washington MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 8.4 | 0–21 | 1.8 | 8% | |
| Evan Hull ARI vs LA | RB | ARI vs LA | 4 | 8.2 | 0–19 | 2.2 | 8% |
| DJ Herman MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 8.1 | 0–20 | 1.8 | 8% | |
| Davis Mills HOU @ CLE | QB | HOU vs CLE | 2 | 8.1 | 0–22 | 1.3 | 8% |
| Sam Howell DAL vs SF | QB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 7.1 | 0–19 | 1.4 | 11% |
| Shedeur Sanders CLE vs HOU | QB | CLE vs HOU | 2 | 7.0 | 0–18 | 1.2 | 7% |
| Dillon Gabriel CLE vs HOU | QB | CLE vs HOU | 3 | 6.7 | 0–18 | 1.3 | 7% |
| Malik Washington CHART MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 1 | 6.6 | 0–19 | 1.1 | 18% |
| Riley Leonard IND vs MIA | QB | IND vs MIA | 3 | 6.2 | 0–18 | 1.1 | 10% |
| KC Concepcion CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 2 | 6.1 | 0–18 | 1.3 | 11% |
| Mac Jones SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 2 | 6.0 | 0–17 | 1.1 | |
| Jake Haener NYG vs WAS | QB | NYG vs WAS | 3 | 5.8 | 0–17 | 1.1 | 7% |
| Puka Nacua LA @ ARI | WR | LA vs ARI | 1 | 5.5 | 0–16 | 0.9 | 30% |
| Gardner Minshew CHART ARI vs LA | QB | ARI vs LA | 1 | 4.4 | 0–14 | 0.9 | |
| Michael Wilson ARI vs LA | WR | ARI vs LA | 1 | 4.4 | 0–17 | 0.8 | 26% |
| Xavier Hutchinson HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 3 | 4.0 | 0–14 | 0.7 | 8% |
| Matthew Stafford LA @ ARI | QB | LA vs ARI | 1 | 4.0 | 0–13 | 0.8 | 3% |
| Dare Ogunbowale HOU @ CLE | RB | HOU vs CLE | 4 | 3.7 | 0–12 | 1.0 | |
| Hunter Luepke DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 3.2 | 0–10 | 0.9 | 7% | |
| Darnell Mooney NYG vs WAS | WR | NYG vs WAS | 3 | 3.1 | 0–11 | 0.6 | 7% |
| Cade Stover HOU @ CLE | TE | HOU vs CLE | 3 | 2.7 | 0–8 | 0.9 | 14% |
| Chris Bell MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 3 | 2.5 | 0–10 | 0.4 | 9% |
| Jacob Cowing SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 6 | 2.5 | 0–10 | 0.4 | |
| Nico Collins HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 1 | 2.3 | 0–8 | 0.4 | 30% |
| Patrick Ricard NYG vs WAS | RB | NYG vs WAS | 2.2 | 0–7 | 0.5 | 4% | |
| Ashton Dulin IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 4 | 2.2 | 0–9 | 0.3 | |
| KaVontae Turpin DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 4 | 2.0 | 0–6 | 0.4 | 7% |
| Jaylin Noel HOU @ CLE | WR | HOU vs CLE | 7 | 1.6 | 0–5 | 0.3 | 17% |
| Ryan Flournoy DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 3 | 1.4 | 0–5 | 0.3 | 22% |
| Tyler Warren IND vs MIA | TE | IND vs MIA | 1 | 1.2 | 0–4 | 0.5 | 33% |
| Deion Burks IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 5 | 1.1 | 0–2 | 0.2 | |
| Malachi Corley CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 5 | 0.8 | 0–1 | 0.1 | |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 1 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 35% |
| Josh Downs CHART IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 1 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 18% |
| Dyami Brown WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 4 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 3% |
| Davis Allen LA @ ARI | TE | LA vs ARI | 3 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 16% |
| Isaiah Bond CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 6 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| Michael Burton CLE vs HOU | FB | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Jordan Whittington LA @ ARI | WR | LA vs ARI | 4 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. CLE vs HOU | TE | CLE vs HOU | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 18% |
| Jaylin Lane WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 8 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| Kyle Juszczyk SF @ DAL | FB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 15% |
| Jerry Jeudy CLE vs HOU | WR | CLE vs HOU | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 7% |
| Greg Dulcich MIA @ IND | TE | MIA vs IND | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 26% |
| George Kittle SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 34% |
| Jake Ferguson DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 18% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PIT, SEA, SF, TEN, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →