| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Tgt ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase CIN vs PIT | WR | CIN vs PIT | 1 | 7.6 | 3–12 | 11.1 | 56% |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 1 | 6.3 | 3–10 | 9.4 | 35% |
| Malik Nabers NYG vs WAS | WR | NYG vs WAS | 1 | 5.8 | 2–10 | 9.0 | 45% |
| Justin Jefferson MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 1 | 5.5 | 2–9 | 8.5 | 44% |
| George Kittle SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 1 | 5.4 | 2–10 | 7.0 | 34% |
| Tee Higgins CIN vs PIT | WR | CIN vs PIT | 2 | 5.3 | 2–8 | 8.4 | 26% |
| Rashee Rice KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 1 | 5.2 | 2–9 | 7.2 | 29% |
| Drake London ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 1 | 5.0 | 2–8 | 8.0 | 16% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 4.8 | 2–8 | 7.1 | 30% |
| Christian McCaffrey SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 4.7 | 1–9 | 5.9 | 39% |
| Isaiah Likely NYG vs WAS | TE | NYG vs WAS | 1 | 4.7 | 2–8 | 6.6 | 34% |
| George Pickens DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 2 | 4.5 | 1–8 | 7.2 | 23% |
| Tucker Kraft GB vs MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 1 | 4.4 | 2–7 | 6.1 | 31% |
| Carnell Tate CHART TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 1 | 4.3 | 1–7 | 6.6 | 15% |
| Matthew Golden GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 2 | 4.2 | 1–8 | 7.1 | 22% |
| T.J. Hockenson MIN @ GB | TE | MIN vs GB | 1 | 4.2 | 2–7 | 5.6 | 27% |
| Travis Kelce KC @ ATL | TE | KC vs ATL | 1 | 4.1 | 1–7 | 5.7 | 13% |
| DK Metcalf PIT @ CIN | WR | PIT vs CIN | 1 | 4.1 | 1–7 | 7.1 | 25% |
| Chase Brown CIN vs PIT | RB | CIN vs PIT | 1 | 4.0 | 1–7 | 4.9 | 21% |
| Germie Bernard PIT @ CIN | WR | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 4.0 | 1–7 | 5.8 | 30% |
| Stefon Diggs WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 1 | 4.0 | 1–7 | 5.6 | 20% |
| Jakobi Meyers JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 2 | 3.9 | 1–7 | 5.8 | 22% |
| Brenton Strange JAX @ TEN | TE | JAX vs TEN | 1 | 3.9 | 1–7 | 5.2 | 17% |
| Christian Watson CHART GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 1 | 3.9 | 1–7 | 6.5 | 24% |
| Parker Washington JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 1 | 3.7 | 1–6 | 6.0 | 21% |
| Mike Evans SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 1 | 3.6 | 1–6 | 6.0 | 24% |
| Kyle Pitts ATL vs KC | TE | ATL vs KC | 1 | 3.5 | 1–6 | 5.1 | 24% |
| Ryan Flournoy DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 3 | 3.4 | 1–6 | 4.9 | 22% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 2 | 3.2 | 1–6 | 4.8 | 27% |
| Chig Okonkwo WAS @ NYG | TE | WAS vs NYG | 1 | 3.2 | 1–6 | 4.6 | 7% |
| Jordan Addison MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 2 | 3.1 | 1–6 | 5.3 | 17% |
| Antonio Williams WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 2 | 3.1 | 1–6 | 4.7 | 9% |
| Bijan Robinson ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 1 | 3.1 | 1–6 | 4.1 | 27% |
| Pat Freiermuth PIT @ CIN | TE | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 3.0 | 1–6 | 4.0 | 29% |
| Xavier Worthy KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 2 | 3.0 | 1–5 | 4.9 | 15% |
| Jaylen Warren PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 1 | 3.0 | 1–6 | 3.8 | 28% |
| Josh Jacobs GB vs MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 1 | 3.0 | 1–5 | 3.8 | 56% |
| Darnell Washington CHART PIT @ CIN | TE | PIT vs CIN | 1 | 2.8 | 1–5 | 3.8 | 27% |
| Malachi Fields NYG vs WAS | WR | NYG vs WAS | 2 | 2.6 | 0–6 | 4.4 | 15% |
| Rachaad White CHART WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 1 | 2.5 | 0–5 | 2.9 | 36% |
| Mike Gesicki CIN vs PIT | TE | CIN vs PIT | 1 | 2.5 | 1–5 | 3.5 | 19% |
| Gunnar Helm TEN vs JAX | TE | TEN vs JAX | 1 | 2.5 | 0–5 | 3.3 | 17% |
| Kenneth Walker III KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 1 | 2.4 | 0–5 | 3.0 | 51% |
| Bhayshul Tuten JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 1 | 2.4 | 0–5 | 3.0 | 46% |
| Tony Pollard TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 1 | 2.3 | 0–4 | 2.9 | 25% |
| Dohnte Meyers CIN vs PIT | WR | CIN vs PIT | 3 | 2.3 | 0–5 | 3.5 | 9% |
| Emmett Johnson KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 2 | 2.3 | 0–5 | 2.9 | 9% |
| Tyjae Spears TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 2.2 | 0–5 | 2.7 | 9% |
| Treylon Burks WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 3 | 2.2 | 0–5 | 4.0 | 17% |
| Rico Dowdle PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 2.2 | 0–4 | 2.8 | 14% |
| Jauan Jennings MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 3 | 2.2 | 0–4 | 3.4 | 11% |
| Aaron Jones MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 2 | 2.1 | 0–5 | 2.8 | 36% |
| Savion Williams GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 3 | 2.1 | 0–4 | 2.9 | 8% |
| Jake Ferguson DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 1 | 2.1 | 0–5 | 2.9 | 18% |
| Noah Gray KC @ ATL | TE | KC vs ATL | 2 | 2.1 | 0–4 | 2.9 | 16% |
| Jahan Dotson ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 2 | 2.0 | 0–4 | 3.5 | 18% |
| Javonte Williams DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 1 | 2.0 | 0–5 | 2.6 | 44% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 3 | 2.0 | 0–4 | 3.2 | 20% |
| Elic Ayomanor TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 3 | 1.9 | 0–4 | 3.6 | 29% |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 2 | 1.9 | 0–4 | 2.7 | 7% |
| Theo Johnson NYG vs WAS | TE | NYG vs WAS | 2 | 1.6 | 0–3 | 2.5 | 14% |
| Calvin Ridley TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 5 | 1.5 | 0–3 | 2.8 | 16% |
| Jordan Watkins SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 3 | 1.5 | 0–4 | 2.4 | 5% |
| Daniel Bellinger TEN vs JAX | TE | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 1.5 | 0–4 | 2.0 | 11% |
| Chimere Dike TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 4 | 1.5 | 0–3 | 2.3 | |
| Cam Skattebo NYG vs WAS | RB | NYG vs WAS | 1 | 1.5 | 0–4 | 1.9 | 19% |
| Devin Singletary NYG vs WAS | RB | NYG vs WAS | 2 | 1.5 | 0–3 | 1.8 | 20% |
| Brandon Aiyuk SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 10 | 1.5 | 0–3 | 2.3 | 10% |
| Darnell Mooney NYG vs WAS | WR | NYG vs WAS | 3 | 1.4 | 0–3 | 2.6 | 7% |
| Nate Boerkircher JAX @ TEN | TE | JAX vs TEN | 2 | 1.4 | 0–3 | 1.9 | 9% |
| Olamide Zaccheaus ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 3 | 1.3 | 0–3 | 2.2 | 16% |
| Cyrus Allen KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 3 | 1.3 | 0–3 | 2.1 | |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG vs WAS | RB | NYG vs WAS | 4 | 1.2 | 0–3 | 1.7 | 20% |
| Austin Ekeler WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 2 | 1.2 | 0–3 | 1.6 | 29% |
| Kyle Juszczyk SF @ DAL | FB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 1.2 | 0–3 | 1.6 | 15% |
| Austin Hooper ATL vs KC | TE | ATL vs KC | 3 | 1.2 | 0–3 | 1.6 | 15% |
| Josh Cameron JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 4 | 1.2 | 0–3 | 1.9 | 17% |
| Samaje Perine CIN vs PIT | RB | CIN vs PIT | 2 | 1.1 | 0–3 | 1.4 | 9% |
| MarShawn Lloyd GB vs MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 2 | 1.1 | 0–3 | 1.5 | 23% |
| Brandin Cooks SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 4 | 1.1 | 0–3 | 1.8 | 9% |
| Jacob Cowing SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 6 | 1.1 | 0–3 | 1.8 | |
| Kaelon Black SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 2 | 1.1 | 0–3 | 1.4 | 11% |
| Drew Sample CIN vs PIT | TE | CIN vs PIT | 2 | 1.1 | 0–3 | 1.4 | 9% |
| Charlie Woerner ATL vs KC | TE | ATL vs KC | 2 | 1.1 | 0–3 | 1.5 | 10% |
| Pierre Strong GB vs MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 3 | 1.0 | 0–3 | 1.4 | 4% |
| Dyami Brown WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 4 | 1.0 | 0–3 | 1.6 | 3% |
| Jalen Royals KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 4 | 1.0 | 0–3 | 1.6 | 8% |
| Michael Carter TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 5 | 1.0 | 0–2 | 1.2 | 15% |
| Xavier Restrepo TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 1.0 | 0–2 | 1.6 | 10% | |
| Jordan Mason MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 1 | 1.0 | 0–2 | 1.2 | 15% |
| Zachariah Branch ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 4 | 1.0 | 0–2 | 1.5 | |
| Brian Robinson ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 2 | 1.0 | 0–2 | 1.2 | 31% |
| Andrew Armstrong KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 5 | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.5 | 12% |
| Gavin Bartholomew MIN @ GB | TE | MIN vs GB | 2 | 0.9 | 0–3 | 1.2 | |
| KaVontae Turpin DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 4 | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.4 | 7% |
| Khalil Herbert ATL vs KC | RB | ATL vs KC | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.2 | 20% | |
| Mitchell Tinsley CIN vs PIT | WR | CIN vs PIT | 5 | 0.9 | 0–3 | 1.7 | 15% |
| Jonnu Smith GB vs MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 4 | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.2 | 5% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt CHART WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 4 | 0.9 | 0–2 | 1.2 | 40% |
| K.J. Osborn TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 0.8 | 0–2 | 1.4 | 10% | |
| Jaydn Ott KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 3 | 0.8 | 0–2 | 1.0 | 10% |
| Tyler Goodson DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 0.8 | 0–2 | 1.0 | 9% |
| Ben Yurosek MIN @ GB | TE | MIN vs GB | 3 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.0 | |
| Charlie Jones NYG vs WAS | WR | NYG vs WAS | 4 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.1 | 3% |
| Jeremy McNichols WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 3 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 0.9 | 7% |
| Christian Kirk SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 5 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.1 | 5% |
| Brandon Smith PIT @ CIN | WR | PIT vs CIN | 4 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.1 | |
| Bo Melton GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 4 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.2 | |
| Dillon Bell MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 0.7 | 0–2 | 1.1 | 6% | |
| Mark Redman GB vs MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 2 | 0.7 | 0–2 | 0.9 | 3% |
| Nick Muse ATL vs KC | TE | ATL vs KC | 4 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.8 | 11% |
| Kaden Wetjen PIT @ CIN | WR | PIT vs CIN | 5 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 1.0 | 6% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 2 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.8 | 16% |
| John Bates WAS @ NYG | TE | WAS vs NYG | 3 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.9 | |
| James Thompson SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 0.6 | 0–2 | 1.0 | ||
| Thomas Fidone II NYG vs WAS | TE | NYG vs WAS | 4 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.8 | |
| Jordan James SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 3 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.7 | 6% |
| Ben Skowronek PIT @ CIN | WR | PIT vs CIN | 3 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.9 | |
| Nicholas Singleton TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 4 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.7 | 13% |
| Jeshaun Jones MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.9 | ||
| Tanner Koziol JAX @ TEN | TE | JAX vs TEN | 3 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.8 | |
| Ameer Abdullah JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 4 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.7 | 10% |
| J. Michael Sturdivant GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 5 | 0.6 | 0–2 | 0.9 | |
| Jonathan Mingo DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 5 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 1.1 | 5% |
| Coleman Owen GB vs MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 6 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.9 | 4% |
| Demond Claiborne MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 3 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.7 | 6% |
| DeeJay Dallas MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.7 | ||
| Tai Felton MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 4 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.9 | |
| Kylen Granson TEN vs JAX | TE | TEN vs JAX | 4 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.9 | |
| Van Jefferson WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 5 | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.9 | |
| Max Bredeson MIN @ GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.7 | 6% | |
| Hunter Luepke DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 0.5 | 0–2 | 0.6 | 7% | |
| Jack Endries CIN vs PIT | TE | CIN vs PIT | 4 | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.7 | 9% |
| Odell Beckham Jr. MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.8 | ||
| Luke Farrell SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 2 | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Beaux Collins ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 6 | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.8 | |
| Jaylin Lane WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 8 | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.8 | |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 3 | 0.5 | 0–1 | 0.6 | 7% |
| Luke Schoonmaker DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 3 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.7 | |
| Brandon Johnson PIT @ CIN | WR | PIT vs CIN | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.7 | ||
| Myles Price MIN @ GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 5 | 0.4 | 0–2 | 0.7 | 6% |
| Chris Blair ATL vs KC | WR | ATL vs KC | 5 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.7 | |
| Colbie Young CIN vs PIT | WR | CIN vs PIT | 4 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.7 | |
| Lew Nichols III PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 4 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | 7% |
| Eli Heidenreich PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 5 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | 7% |
| Riley Nowakowski PIT @ CIN | FB | PIT vs CIN | 1 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | |
| Jake Briningstool KC @ ATL | TE | KC vs ATL | 3 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Justin Watson KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | ||
| Luke McCaffrey WAS @ NYG | WR | WAS vs NYG | 6 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| C.J. Williams JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 6 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.6 | |
| Kaleb Johnson GB vs MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 4 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | 5% |
| Ben VanSumeren KC @ ATL | RB | KC vs ATL | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | 9% | |
| Ben Sinnott WAS @ NYG | TE | WAS vs NYG | 2 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | |
| Travis Homer PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 3 | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | |
| Craig Reynolds WAS @ NYG | RB | WAS vs NYG | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.4 | 4% | |
| James Mitchell DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 0.4 | 0–1 | 0.5 | ||
| Kalel Mullings TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.4 | ||
| Tahj Brooks CIN vs PIT | RB | CIN vs PIT | 3 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.4 | 6% |
| Camden Brown DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 6 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.5 | 3% |
| Josh Whyle GB vs MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 3 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.4 | |
| Jack Stoll SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.4 | ||
| Jalin Hyatt NYG vs WAS | WR | NYG vs WAS | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.5 | ||
| Quintin Morris JAX @ TEN | TE | JAX vs TEN | 4 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.4 | |
| David Martin-Robinson TEN vs JAX | TE | TEN vs JAX | 3 | 0.3 | 0–1 | 0.4 | |
| Colson Yankoff WAS @ NYG | TE | WAS vs NYG | 4 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Patrick Ricard NYG vs WAS | RB | NYG vs WAS | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | 4% | |
| Jared Wiley KC @ ATL | TE | KC vs ATL | 4 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Dalen Cambre NYG vs WAS | WR | NYG vs WAS | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.4 | ||
| Julius Chestnut TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 3 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Cam Grandy CIN vs PIT | TE | CIN vs PIT | 3 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Chris Manhertz NYG vs WAS | TE | NYG vs WAS | 3 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Nikko Remigio KC @ ATL | WR | KC vs ATL | 6 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Brayden Willis SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 3 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Robert Tonyan PIT @ CIN | TE | PIT vs CIN | 3 | 0.2 | 0–1 | 0.3 | |
| Sam Howell DAL vs SF | QB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 11% |
| Jake Haener NYG vs WAS | QB | NYG vs WAS | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 7% |
| Max Brosmer MIN @ GB | QB | MIN vs GB | 3 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 7% |
| Josh Johnson CIN vs PIT | QB | CIN vs PIT | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 7% | |
| Mitchell Trubisky TEN vs JAX | QB | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PIT, SEA, SF, TEN, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →