| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Car ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 93.3 | 37–162 | 18.0 | 33% |
| Jonathan Taylor IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 1 | 80.3 | 30–143 | 17.1 | 32% |
| Christian McCaffrey SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 76.1 | 37–122 | 14.7 | 39% |
| Emanuel Wilson CHART SEA @ LV | RB | SEA vs LV | 3 | 69.7 | 32–114 | 14.8 | 16% |
| Tony Pollard TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 1 | 64.5 | 28–107 | 17.9 | 25% |
| Ollie Gordon II MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 1 | 64.0 | 17–123 | 15.6 | 26% |
| Javonte Williams DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 1 | 62.5 | 23–110 | 17.5 | 44% |
| Bhayshul Tuten JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 1 | 57.4 | 26–94 | 13.3 | 46% |
| Mike Washington Jr. LV vs SEA | RB | LV vs SEA | 2 | 51.3 | 13–100 | 13.1 | 18% |
| Jadarian Price SEA @ LV | RB | SEA vs LV | 2 | 45.3 | 14–81 | 9.7 | 10% |
| Kaelon Black SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 2 | 45.1 | 15–82 | 9.4 | 11% |
| Omarion Hampton LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 36.4 | 8–73 | 9.6 | 17% |
| Zach Charbonnet CHART SEA @ LV | RB | SEA vs LV | 1 | 36.1 | 11–67 | 7.7 | 40% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 2 | 34.2 | 8–66 | 7.2 | 16% |
| Kimani Vidal LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 30.6 | 6–64 | 7.9 | 26% |
| Seth McGowan IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 2 | 30.0 | 5–62 | 6.9 | 10% |
| Justin Herbert LAC @ BAL | QB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 24.9 | 4–52 | 4.2 | 32% |
| Malik Willis MIA @ IND | QB | MIA vs IND | 1 | 24.7 | 1–56 | 3.7 | 19% |
| Ashton Jeanty CHART LV vs SEA | RB | LV vs SEA | 1 | 23.6 | 0–58 | 7.2 | 33% |
| Lamar Jackson BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 23.3 | 0–55 | 3.4 | 12% |
| Brock Purdy CHART SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 20.7 | 2–44 | 3.3 | 17% |
| Justice Hill BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 20.1 | 2–45 | 4.1 | 11% |
| DJ Giddens IND vs MIA | RB | IND vs MIA | 3 | 19.6 | 3–38 | 4.6 | 14% |
| Kyle McCord MIA @ IND | QB | MIA vs IND | 2 | 18.8 | 1–41 | 3.1 | 16% |
| Jaylen Wright MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 2 | 18.6 | 2–40 | 4.6 | |
| Keaton Mitchell LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 18.3 | 0–48 | 3.7 | 8% |
| George Holani SEA @ LV | RB | SEA vs LV | 4 | 18.2 | 1–41 | 4.3 | 11% |
| Tyler Huntley BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 17.8 | 0–44 | 2.9 | 13% |
| Joe Fagnano BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 17.8 | 1–39 | 3.1 | 17% |
| Jordan James SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 3 | 17.4 | 1–37 | 3.5 | 6% |
| Tyler Goodson DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 17.2 | 0–42 | 4.6 | 9% |
| Kaytron Allen MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 3 | 17.1 | 2–36 | 3.9 | 13% |
| Anthony Richardson IND vs MIA | QB | IND vs MIA | 2 | 16.1 | 0–36 | 2.7 | 20% |
| Kurtis Rourke SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 3 | 15.4 | 0–36 | 2.4 | 11% |
| Trevor Lawrence JAX @ TEN | QB | JAX vs TEN | 1 | 15.1 | 0–34 | 2.7 | 18% |
| Velus Jones Jr. SEA @ LV | RB | SEA vs LV | 5 | 14.4 | 0–37 | 2.8 | 7% |
| Adam Randall BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 4 | 13.8 | 0–30 | 3.1 | 13% |
| Robert Henry Jr. SEA @ LV | RB | SEA vs LV | 13.3 | 0–31 | 2.7 | 9% | |
| Daniel Jones IND vs MIA | QB | IND vs MIA | 1 | 13.2 | 0–31 | 2.7 | 14% |
| DJ Uiagalelei LAC @ BAL | QB | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 12.5 | 0–28 | 2.4 | 14% |
| Ameer Abdullah JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 4 | 11.9 | 0–27 | 2.6 | 10% |
| Cam Ward TEN vs JAX | QB | TEN vs JAX | 1 | 11.9 | 0–27 | 2.7 | 17% |
| Tyjae Spears TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 11.8 | 0–28 | 3.3 | 9% |
| Rasheen Ali BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 11.7 | 0–26 | 2.7 | 11% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 2 | 11.2 | 0–30 | 2.0 | 27% |
| Nicholas Singleton TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 4 | 11.1 | 0–24 | 3.2 | 13% |
| Dak Prescott DAL vs SF | QB | DAL vs SF | 1 | 10.9 | 0–27 | 2.3 | 17% |
| Roman Hemby LV vs SEA | RB | LV vs SEA | 10.2 | 0–24 | 2.6 | 13% | |
| Fernando Mendoza LV vs SEA | QB | LV vs SEA | 2 | 10.2 | 0–24 | 2.0 | 13% |
| Sam Darnold SEA @ LV | QB | SEA vs LV | 1 | 10.1 | 0–27 | 1.7 | 7% |
| Michael Carter TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 5 | 8.4 | 0–20 | 2.4 | 15% |
| Carlos Washington MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 8.4 | 0–21 | 1.8 | 8% | |
| DJ Herman MIA @ IND | RB | MIA vs IND | 8.1 | 0–20 | 1.8 | 8% | |
| Drew Lock SEA @ LV | QB | SEA vs LV | 2 | 7.1 | 0–21 | 1.0 | 6% |
| Sam Howell DAL vs SF | QB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 7.1 | 0–19 | 1.4 | 11% |
| Malik Washington CHART MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 1 | 6.6 | 0–19 | 1.1 | 18% |
| Jalen Milroe SEA @ LV | QB | SEA vs LV | 3 | 6.4 | 0–19 | 1.1 | |
| Riley Leonard IND vs MIA | QB | IND vs MIA | 3 | 6.2 | 0–18 | 1.1 | 10% |
| Mac Jones SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 2 | 6.0 | 0–17 | 1.1 | |
| Kalel Mullings TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 5.9 | 0–15 | 1.7 | ||
| Dylan Laube LV vs SEA | RB | LV vs SEA | 3 | 5.8 | 0–15 | 1.7 | |
| Quinn Ewers JAX @ TEN | QB | JAX vs TEN | 2 | 5.5 | 0–16 | 1.0 | 6% |
| Kirk Cousins LV vs SEA | QB | LV vs SEA | 1 | 5.5 | 0–17 | 1.5 | 9% |
| Mitchell Trubisky TEN vs JAX | QB | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 4.7 | 0–14 | 1.1 | |
| Aidan O'Connell LV vs SEA | QB | LV vs SEA | 3 | 4.6 | 0–14 | 1.1 | 9% |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 3 | 4.6 | 0–14 | 1.1 | 7% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA @ LV | WR | SEA vs LV | 1 | 4.3 | 0–16 | 0.7 | 30% |
| Nick Mullens JAX @ TEN | QB | JAX vs TEN | 4.1 | 0–14 | 0.7 | 5% | |
| Julius Chestnut TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 3 | 3.9 | 0–11 | 1.1 | |
| Rashid Shaheed SEA @ LV | WR | SEA vs LV | 2 | 3.7 | 0–12 | 0.5 | 10% |
| Scott Matlock LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 3.7 | 0–10 | 0.9 | 9% | |
| Brady Russell SEA @ LV | RB | SEA vs LV | 3.3 | 0–10 | 0.7 | ||
| Hunter Luepke DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 3.2 | 0–10 | 0.9 | 7% | |
| AJ Barner SEA @ LV | TE | SEA vs LV | 1 | 2.8 | 0–8 | 1.0 | 37% |
| Chris Bell MIA @ IND | WR | MIA vs IND | 3 | 2.5 | 0–10 | 0.4 | 9% |
| Jacob Cowing SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 6 | 2.5 | 0–10 | 0.4 | |
| Ashton Dulin IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 4 | 2.2 | 0–9 | 0.3 | |
| Parker Washington JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 1 | 2.0 | 0–8 | 0.4 | 21% |
| KaVontae Turpin DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 4 | 2.0 | 0–6 | 0.4 | 7% |
| Derius Davis LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 6 | 1.7 | 0–6 | 0.3 | |
| Zay Flowers BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 1.6 | 0–5 | 0.3 | 21% |
| Connor Heyward LV vs SEA | FB | LV vs SEA | 1 | 1.4 | 0–5 | 0.6 | |
| Ryan Flournoy DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 3 | 1.4 | 0–5 | 0.3 | 22% |
| Tyler Warren IND vs MIA | TE | IND vs MIA | 1 | 1.2 | 0–4 | 0.5 | 33% |
| Deion Burks IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 5 | 1.1 | 0–2 | 0.2 | |
| Tre Tucker LV vs SEA | WR | LV vs SEA | 1 | 0.9 | 0–2 | 0.2 | 17% |
| Quentin Johnston LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 0.8 | 0–0 | 0.2 | 14% |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 1 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 35% |
| Deven Thompkins LV vs SEA | WR | LV vs SEA | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | ||
| Jakobi Meyers JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 2 | 0.5 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 22% |
| Josh Downs CHART IND vs MIA | WR | IND vs MIA | 1 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 18% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 30% |
| Malik Benson LV vs SEA | WR | LV vs SEA | 7 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 10% |
| Chimere Dike TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 4 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Oronde Gadsden II LAC @ BAL | TE | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 31% |
| Mark Andrews BAL vs LAC | TE | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 24% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 3 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 20% |
| Tre Harris LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 9% |
| Brock Bowers LV vs SEA | TE | LV vs SEA | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 39% |
| Kyle Juszczyk SF @ DAL | FB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 15% |
| Jalen Nailor LV vs SEA | WR | LV vs SEA | 2 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 20% |
| Greg Dulcich MIA @ IND | TE | MIA vs IND | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 26% |
| George Kittle SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 34% |
| Jake Ferguson DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 18% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PIT, SEA, SF, TEN, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →