| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Car ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 93.3 | 37–162 | 18.0 | 33% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET vs NE | RB | DET vs NE | 1 | 83.8 | 37–138 | 18.1 | 52% |
| Jaylen Warren PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 1 | 81.4 | 38–131 | 16.1 | 28% |
| Christian McCaffrey SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 76.1 | 37–122 | 14.7 | 39% |
| Tony Pollard TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 1 | 64.5 | 28–107 | 17.9 | 25% |
| Javonte Williams DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 1 | 62.5 | 23–110 | 17.5 | 44% |
| Bhayshul Tuten JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 1 | 57.4 | 26–94 | 13.3 | 46% |
| Chase Brown CIN vs PIT | RB | CIN vs PIT | 1 | 47.1 | 20–80 | 13.1 | 21% |
| Kaelon Black SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 2 | 45.1 | 15–82 | 9.4 | 11% |
| Rico Dowdle PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 41.2 | 15–72 | 9.1 | 14% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE @ DET | RB | NE vs DET | 1 | 39.4 | 16–68 | 10.6 | 18% |
| Omarion Hampton LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 36.4 | 8–73 | 9.6 | 17% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 2 | 34.2 | 8–66 | 7.2 | 16% |
| Kimani Vidal LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 30.6 | 6–64 | 7.9 | 26% |
| Drake Maye NE @ DET | QB | NE vs DET | 1 | 25.4 | 6–50 | 4.4 | 18% |
| Justin Herbert LAC @ BAL | QB | LAC vs BAL | 1 | 24.9 | 4–52 | 4.2 | 32% |
| Lamar Jackson BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 23.3 | 0–55 | 3.4 | 12% |
| TreVeyon Henderson NE @ DET | RB | NE vs DET | 2 | 22.8 | 0–56 | 5.3 | 12% |
| Brock Purdy CHART SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 20.7 | 2–44 | 3.3 | 17% |
| Corey Kiner NE @ DET | RB | NE vs DET | 3 | 20.7 | 5–40 | 5.1 | 18% |
| Justice Hill BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 20.1 | 2–45 | 4.1 | 11% |
| Samaje Perine CIN vs PIT | RB | CIN vs PIT | 2 | 18.7 | 3–38 | 5.0 | 9% |
| Keaton Mitchell LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 18.3 | 0–48 | 3.7 | 8% |
| Tyler Huntley BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 17.8 | 0–44 | 2.9 | 13% |
| Joe Fagnano BAL vs LAC | QB | BAL vs LAC | 2 | 17.8 | 1–39 | 3.1 | 17% |
| Jordan James SF @ DAL | RB | SF vs DAL | 3 | 17.4 | 1–37 | 3.5 | 6% |
| Tyler Goodson DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 17.2 | 0–42 | 4.6 | 9% |
| Sione Vaki DET vs NE | RB | DET vs NE | 2 | 16.0 | 0–36 | 4.2 | 6% |
| Kurtis Rourke SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 3 | 15.4 | 0–36 | 2.4 | 11% |
| Trevor Lawrence JAX @ TEN | QB | JAX vs TEN | 1 | 15.1 | 0–34 | 2.7 | 18% |
| Will Howard PIT @ CIN | QB | PIT vs CIN | 3 | 14.0 | 0–33 | 2.4 | 14% |
| Adam Randall BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 4 | 13.8 | 0–30 | 3.1 | 13% |
| Drew Allar PIT @ CIN | QB | PIT vs CIN | 4 | 13.6 | 0–32 | 2.4 | 14% |
| DJ Uiagalelei LAC @ BAL | QB | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 12.5 | 0–28 | 2.4 | 14% |
| Ameer Abdullah JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 4 | 11.9 | 0–27 | 2.6 | 10% |
| Cam Ward TEN vs JAX | QB | TEN vs JAX | 1 | 11.9 | 0–27 | 2.7 | 17% |
| Tyjae Spears TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 11.8 | 0–28 | 3.3 | 9% |
| Rasheen Ali BAL vs LAC | RB | BAL vs LAC | 3 | 11.7 | 0–26 | 2.7 | 11% |
| Joe Burrow CHART CIN vs PIT | QB | CIN vs PIT | 1 | 11.3 | 0–27 | 2.4 | 15% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 2 | 11.2 | 0–30 | 2.0 | 27% |
| Nicholas Singleton TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 4 | 11.1 | 0–24 | 3.2 | 13% |
| Dak Prescott DAL vs SF | QB | DAL vs SF | 1 | 10.9 | 0–27 | 2.3 | 17% |
| Behren Morton NE @ DET | QB | NE vs DET | 3 | 10.9 | 0–26 | 2.1 | 12% |
| Justin Jackson DET vs NE | RB | DET vs NE | 9.9 | 0–23 | 2.6 | 7% | |
| Michael Carter TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 5 | 8.4 | 0–20 | 2.4 | 15% |
| Lan Larison NE @ DET | RB | NE vs DET | 4 | 7.6 | 0–18 | 2.0 | |
| Travis Homer PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 3 | 7.4 | 0–20 | 1.7 | |
| Tommy DeVito NE @ DET | QB | NE vs DET | 2 | 7.2 | 0–19 | 1.4 | 7% |
| Sam Howell DAL vs SF | QB | DAL vs SF | 2 | 7.1 | 0–19 | 1.4 | 11% |
| Tahj Brooks CIN vs PIT | RB | CIN vs PIT | 3 | 6.8 | 0–16 | 2.0 | 6% |
| Lew Nichols III PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 4 | 6.3 | 0–16 | 1.5 | 7% |
| Josh Johnson CIN vs PIT | QB | CIN vs PIT | 6.3 | 0–17 | 1.3 | 7% | |
| Mac Jones SF @ DAL | QB | SF vs DAL | 2 | 6.0 | 0–17 | 1.1 | |
| Kalel Mullings TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 5.9 | 0–15 | 1.7 | ||
| Eli Heidenreich PIT @ CIN | RB | PIT vs CIN | 5 | 5.6 | 0–15 | 1.3 | 7% |
| Quinn Ewers JAX @ TEN | QB | JAX vs TEN | 2 | 5.5 | 0–16 | 1.0 | 6% |
| Joshua Dobbs DET vs NE | QB | DET vs NE | 2 | 5.2 | 0–16 | 1.1 | 6% |
| Mason Rudolph PIT @ CIN | QB | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 5.2 | 0–15 | 1.0 | 6% |
| Aaron Rodgers PIT @ CIN | QB | PIT vs CIN | 1 | 5.1 | 0–15 | 0.9 | 7% |
| Mitchell Trubisky TEN vs JAX | QB | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 4.7 | 0–14 | 1.1 | |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX @ TEN | RB | JAX vs TEN | 3 | 4.6 | 0–14 | 1.1 | 7% |
| Jacob Saylors DET vs NE | RB | DET vs NE | 3 | 4.3 | 0–12 | 1.1 | 5% |
| Nick Mullens JAX @ TEN | QB | JAX vs TEN | 4.1 | 0–14 | 0.7 | 5% | |
| Jared Goff DET vs NE | QB | DET vs NE | 1 | 4.0 | 0–13 | 1.0 | 7% |
| Julius Chestnut TEN vs JAX | RB | TEN vs JAX | 3 | 3.9 | 0–11 | 1.1 | |
| Scott Matlock LAC @ BAL | RB | LAC vs BAL | 3.7 | 0–10 | 0.9 | 9% | |
| Joe Flacco CIN vs PIT | QB | CIN vs PIT | 2 | 3.5 | 0–11 | 0.8 | 5% |
| Hunter Luepke DAL vs SF | RB | DAL vs SF | 3.2 | 0–10 | 0.9 | 7% | |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET vs NE | WR | DET vs NE | 1 | 2.8 | 0–11 | 0.6 | 34% |
| Jacob Cowing SF @ DAL | WR | SF vs DAL | 6 | 2.5 | 0–10 | 0.4 | |
| Parker Washington JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 1 | 2.0 | 0–8 | 0.4 | 21% |
| KaVontae Turpin DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 4 | 2.0 | 0–6 | 0.4 | 7% |
| Derius Davis LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 6 | 1.7 | 0–6 | 0.3 | |
| Zay Flowers BAL vs LAC | WR | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 1.6 | 0–5 | 0.3 | 21% |
| Pat Freiermuth PIT @ CIN | TE | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 1.5 | 0–3 | 0.4 | 29% |
| Ryan Flournoy DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 3 | 1.4 | 0–5 | 0.3 | 22% |
| Sam LaPorta DET vs NE | TE | DET vs NE | 1 | 1.0 | 0–2 | 0.3 | 34% |
| Quentin Johnston LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 0.8 | 0–0 | 0.2 | 14% |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL vs SF | WR | DAL vs SF | 1 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 35% |
| Jakobi Meyers JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 2 | 0.5 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 22% |
| DK Metcalf PIT @ CIN | WR | PIT vs CIN | 1 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 25% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 2 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 30% |
| Germie Bernard PIT @ CIN | WR | PIT vs CIN | 2 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 30% |
| Dohnte Meyers CIN vs PIT | WR | CIN vs PIT | 3 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 9% |
| Efton Chism III NE @ DET | WR | NE vs DET | 3 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 27% |
| Chimere Dike TEN vs JAX | WR | TEN vs JAX | 4 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Jameson Williams DET vs NE | WR | DET vs NE | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 26% |
| Oronde Gadsden II LAC @ BAL | TE | LAC vs BAL | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 31% |
| Mark Andrews BAL vs LAC | TE | BAL vs LAC | 1 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 24% |
| DeMario Douglas NE @ DET | WR | NE vs DET | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 10% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. JAX @ TEN | WR | JAX vs TEN | 3 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 20% |
| Ja'Marr Chase CIN vs PIT | WR | CIN vs PIT | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 56% |
| Tre Harris LAC @ BAL | WR | LAC vs BAL | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 9% |
| Kyle Williams NE @ DET | WR | NE vs DET | 4 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 7% |
| Kyle Juszczyk SF @ DAL | FB | SF vs DAL | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 15% |
| Tyler Conklin DET vs NE | TE | DET vs NE | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| George Kittle SF @ DAL | TE | SF vs DAL | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 34% |
| Drew Sample CIN vs PIT | TE | CIN vs PIT | 2 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 9% |
| Jake Ferguson DAL vs SF | TE | DAL vs SF | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 18% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CIN, CLE, DAL, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PIT, SEA, SF, TEN, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →