| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Car ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry BAL vs JAX | RB | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 71.0 | 29–121 | 16.8 | 29% |
| Kyren Williams LA @ WAS | RB | LA vs WAS | 1 | 57.6 | 29–90 | 13.2 | 44% |
| Woody Marks HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 2 | 50.9 | 17–91 | 13.3 | 35% |
| Josh Jacobs GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 1 | 50.2 | 24–82 | 13.8 | 54% |
| Bhayshul Tuten JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 1 | 48.3 | 22–78 | 13.2 | 50% |
| Omarion Hampton LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 1 | 43.5 | 15–79 | 11.4 | 20% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt CHART WAS vs LA | RB | WAS vs LA | 4 | 42.7 | 12–81 | 10.0 | 42% |
| Blake Corum LA @ WAS | RB | LA vs WAS | 2 | 42.4 | 12–80 | 9.7 | 31% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE vs GB | RB | NE vs GB | 1 | 40.5 | 15–71 | 9.9 | 18% |
| David Montgomery CHART HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 1 | 40.3 | 14–72 | 9.1 | 29% |
| Jayden Daniels CHART WAS vs LA | QB | WAS vs LA | 1 | 35.7 | 10–66 | 5.6 | 19% |
| Jawhar Jordan HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 30.7 | 7–62 | 6.5 | 9% | |
| TreVeyon Henderson NE vs GB | RB | NE vs GB | 2 | 30.6 | 3–71 | 6.6 | 14% |
| Kimani Vidal LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 3 | 29.0 | 4–62 | 7.5 | 25% |
| Rachaad White CHART WAS vs LA | RB | WAS vs LA | 1 | 28.9 | 9–53 | 7.2 | 31% |
| Drake Maye NE vs GB | QB | NE vs GB | 1 | 27.3 | 4–57 | 4.1 | 18% |
| Corey Kiner NE vs GB | RB | NE vs GB | 3 | 26.4 | 4–54 | 6.1 | 22% |
| Justin Herbert LAC vs HOU | QB | LAC vs HOU | 1 | 26.3 | 5–54 | 4.5 | 34% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 2 | 25.3 | 7–47 | 6.1 | 13% |
| Lamar Jackson CHART BAL vs JAX | QB | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 24.1 | 5–47 | 4.4 | 14% |
| MarShawn Lloyd GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 2 | 20.9 | 5–39 | 6.7 | 23% |
| Keaton Mitchell LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 19.5 | 0–48 | 4.0 | 9% |
| Pierre Strong GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 3 | 19.3 | 4–38 | 5.1 | 7% |
| Tyler Huntley BAL vs JAX | QB | BAL vs JAX | 2 | 18.8 | 3–38 | 3.8 | 15% |
| Athan Kaliakmanis CHART WAS vs LA | QB | WAS vs LA | 3 | 17.5 | 1–37 | 3.1 | 13% |
| Behren Morton NE vs GB | QB | NE vs GB | 3 | 15.4 | 0–34 | 2.8 | 15% |
| Marcus Mariota WAS vs LA | QB | WAS vs LA | 2 | 14.8 | 0–36 | 2.3 | 9% |
| C.J. Stroud CHART HOU @ LAC | QB | HOU vs LAC | 1 | 14.0 | 0–32 | 2.5 | 10% |
| Trevor Lawrence JAX @ BAL | QB | JAX vs BAL | 1 | 13.2 | 0–30 | 2.7 | 17% |
| DJ Uiagalelei LAC vs HOU | QB | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 12.8 | 0–30 | 2.5 | 15% |
| Kaleb Johnson GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 4 | 12.7 | 0–31 | 3.8 | 4% |
| Austin Ekeler WAS vs LA | RB | WAS vs LA | 2 | 12.6 | 0–28 | 3.2 | 20% |
| Ty Simpson LA @ WAS | QB | LA vs WAS | 3 | 12.4 | 0–29 | 2.4 | 12% |
| Joe Fagnano BAL vs JAX | QB | BAL vs JAX | 3 | 11.2 | 0–26 | 2.4 | 13% |
| Craig Reynolds WAS vs LA | RB | WAS vs LA | 11.1 | 0–25 | 2.6 | ||
| Justice Hill BAL vs JAX | RB | BAL vs JAX | 2 | 11.0 | 0–28 | 2.7 | 9% |
| Rasheen Ali BAL vs JAX | RB | BAL vs JAX | 3 | 10.9 | 0–24 | 3.2 | 12% |
| Tommy DeVito NE vs GB | QB | NE vs GB | 2 | 9.8 | 0–25 | 1.7 | 9% |
| Dean Connors LA @ WAS | RB | LA vs WAS | 3 | 9.4 | 0–22 | 2.4 | 10% |
| Stetson Bennett LA @ WAS | QB | LA vs WAS | 2 | 9.0 | 0–22 | 1.7 | 9% |
| Jordan Love GB @ NE | QB | GB vs NE | 1 | 8.9 | 0–24 | 1.7 | 8% |
| Davis Mills HOU @ LAC | QB | HOU vs LAC | 2 | 8.8 | 0–23 | 1.5 | 8% |
| Savion Williams GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 3 | 8.0 | 0–22 | 1.6 | 9% |
| Tyrod Taylor GB @ NE | QB | GB vs NE | 2 | 7.0 | 0–19 | 1.4 | 5% |
| Ameer Abdullah JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 4 | 5.6 | 0–17 | 1.3 | 6% |
| Tank Dell HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 5 | 5.6 | 0–19 | 1.0 | |
| Puka Nacua LA @ WAS | WR | LA vs WAS | 1 | 5.3 | 0–16 | 0.9 | 27% |
| Quinn Ewers JAX @ BAL | QB | JAX vs BAL | 2 | 5.2 | 0–15 | 1.1 | 6% |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 3 | 4.6 | 0–13 | 1.2 | 9% |
| Dare Ogunbowale HOU @ LAC | RB | HOU vs LAC | 3 | 4.0 | 0–11 | 1.0 | |
| Nick Mullens JAX @ BAL | QB | JAX vs BAL | 3.8 | 0–12 | 0.8 | 5% | |
| Matthew Stafford LA @ WAS | QB | LA vs WAS | 1 | 3.7 | 0–12 | 0.8 | 3% |
| Xavier Hutchinson HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 3 | 3.3 | 0–13 | 0.6 | 8% |
| Scott Matlock LAC vs HOU | RB | LAC vs HOU | 3.1 | 0–9 | 0.8 | ||
| Zay Flowers BAL vs JAX | WR | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 2.5 | 0–9 | 0.5 | 25% |
| Cade Stover HOU @ LAC | TE | HOU vs LAC | 3 | 2.4 | 0–6 | 0.7 | 13% |
| Jaylin Noel HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 4 | 2.3 | 0–9 | 0.4 | 18% |
| Quentin Johnston LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 1.9 | 0–8 | 0.4 | 15% |
| Nico Collins HOU @ LAC | WR | HOU vs LAC | 1 | 1.8 | 0–7 | 0.3 | 27% |
| Derius Davis LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 7 | 1.6 | 0–6 | 0.3 | |
| Davis Allen LA @ WAS | TE | LA vs WAS | 3 | 0.9 | 0–2 | 0.3 | 20% |
| Matthew Golden GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 2 | 0.8 | 0–1 | 0.2 | 23% |
| Parker Washington JAX @ BAL | WR | JAX vs BAL | 1 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 23% |
| Jakobi Meyers JAX @ BAL | WR | JAX vs BAL | 2 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 18% |
| Tucker Kraft GB @ NE | TE | GB vs NE | 1 | 0.5 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 29% |
| Efton Chism III NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 3 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 9% |
| Dyami Brown WAS vs LA | WR | WAS vs LA | 4 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 4% |
| DeMario Douglas NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 10% |
| Jonnu Smith GB @ NE | TE | GB vs NE | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 5% |
| Mark Andrews BAL vs JAX | TE | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 21% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. JAX @ BAL | WR | JAX vs BAL | 4 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 13% |
| Oronde Gadsden II LAC vs HOU | TE | LAC vs HOU | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 27% |
| Jordan Whittington LA @ WAS | WR | LA vs WAS | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| Tre Harris LAC vs HOU | WR | LAC vs HOU | 3 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 10% |
| Kyle Williams NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 4 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 6% |
| Jaylin Lane WAS vs LA | WR | WAS vs LA | 7 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| Christian Watson CHART GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 28% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, SEA, SF, TB, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →