| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | Car ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry BAL vs JAX | RB | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 71.0 | 29–121 | 16.8 | 29% |
| Christian McCaffrey SF vs LV | RB | SF vs LV | 1 | 66.0 | 30–109 | 12.9 | 37% |
| Bucky Irving TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 1 | 65.1 | 26–111 | 16.3 | 44% |
| Kyle Monangai CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 2 | 51.9 | 17–93 | 13.2 | 26% |
| D'Andre Swift CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 1 | 51.7 | 22–86 | 13.8 | 22% |
| Josh Jacobs GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 1 | 50.2 | 24–82 | 13.8 | 54% |
| Bhayshul Tuten JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 1 | 48.3 | 22–78 | 13.2 | 50% |
| Kaelon Black SF vs LV | RB | SF vs LV | 2 | 43.6 | 16–76 | 9.2 | 11% |
| Ashton Jeanty LV @ SF | RB | LV vs SF | 1 | 41.3 | 11–80 | 12.8 | 48% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE vs GB | RB | NE vs GB | 1 | 40.5 | 15–71 | 9.9 | 18% |
| Mike Washington Jr. LV @ SF | RB | LV vs SF | 2 | 37.6 | 11–70 | 9.5 | 15% |
| TreVeyon Henderson NE vs GB | RB | NE vs GB | 2 | 30.6 | 3–71 | 6.6 | 14% |
| Drake Maye NE vs GB | QB | NE vs GB | 1 | 27.3 | 4–57 | 4.1 | 18% |
| Corey Kiner NE vs GB | RB | NE vs GB | 3 | 26.4 | 4–54 | 6.1 | 22% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 2 | 25.3 | 7–47 | 6.1 | 13% |
| Kenny Gainwell TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 2 | 25.0 | 3–53 | 6.6 | 29% |
| Lamar Jackson CHART BAL vs JAX | QB | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 24.1 | 5–47 | 4.4 | 14% |
| MarShawn Lloyd GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 2 | 20.9 | 5–39 | 6.7 | 23% |
| Brock Purdy CHART SF vs LV | QB | SF vs LV | 1 | 20.6 | 2–44 | 3.4 | 17% |
| Pierre Strong GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 3 | 19.3 | 4–38 | 5.1 | 7% |
| Tyler Huntley BAL vs JAX | QB | BAL vs JAX | 2 | 18.8 | 3–38 | 3.8 | 15% |
| Jalon Daniels TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 2 | 17.3 | 0–40 | 3.3 | 8% |
| Caleb Williams CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 1 | 16.8 | 0–39 | 3.3 | 13% |
| Sean Tucker TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 3 | 16.5 | 0–40 | 4.3 | 19% |
| Kurtis Rourke SF vs LV | QB | SF vs LV | 3 | 16.3 | 0–36 | 2.6 | 12% |
| Roschon Johnson CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 3 | 16.0 | 1–35 | 4.8 | 25% |
| Jordan James SF vs LV | RB | SF vs LV | 3 | 15.6 | 1–35 | 3.2 | 6% |
| Behren Morton NE vs GB | QB | NE vs GB | 3 | 15.4 | 0–34 | 2.8 | 15% |
| Baker Mayfield CHART TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 1 | 13.5 | 0–34 | 2.4 | 8% |
| Trevor Lawrence JAX @ BAL | QB | JAX vs BAL | 1 | 13.2 | 0–30 | 2.7 | 17% |
| Kaleb Johnson GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 4 | 12.7 | 0–31 | 3.8 | 4% |
| Miller Moss CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 11.6 | 0–27 | 2.4 | 13% | |
| Joe Fagnano BAL vs JAX | QB | BAL vs JAX | 3 | 11.2 | 0–26 | 2.4 | 13% |
| Justice Hill BAL vs JAX | RB | BAL vs JAX | 2 | 11.0 | 0–28 | 2.7 | 9% |
| Rasheen Ali BAL vs JAX | RB | BAL vs JAX | 3 | 10.9 | 0–24 | 3.2 | 12% |
| Fernando Mendoza LV @ SF | QB | LV vs SF | 2 | 10.0 | 0–25 | 1.9 | 12% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 2 | 10.0 | 0–27 | 1.9 | 26% |
| Josh Williams TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 9.8 | 0–23 | 2.7 | 8% | |
| Tommy DeVito NE vs GB | QB | NE vs GB | 2 | 9.8 | 0–25 | 1.7 | 9% |
| Roman Hemby LV @ SF | RB | LV vs SF | 9.4 | 0–22 | 2.5 | 11% | |
| Easton Stick TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 9.1 | 0–23 | 1.9 | 9% | |
| Jordan Love GB @ NE | QB | GB vs NE | 1 | 8.9 | 0–24 | 1.7 | 8% |
| Savion Williams GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 3 | 8.0 | 0–22 | 1.6 | 9% |
| Dylan Laube LV @ SF | RB | LV vs SF | 3 | 7.8 | 0–20 | 2.4 | 7% |
| Tyrod Taylor GB @ NE | QB | GB vs NE | 2 | 7.0 | 0–19 | 1.4 | 5% |
| Case Keenum CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 3 | 6.8 | 0–19 | 1.5 | 11% |
| Tyson Bagent CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 2 | 6.2 | 0–18 | 1.3 | 8% |
| Mac Jones SF vs LV | QB | SF vs LV | 2 | 6.2 | 0–18 | 1.2 | |
| Ameer Abdullah JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 4 | 5.6 | 0–17 | 1.3 | 6% |
| Quinn Ewers JAX @ BAL | QB | JAX vs BAL | 2 | 5.2 | 0–15 | 1.1 | 6% |
| Aidan O'Connell LV @ SF | QB | LV vs SF | 3 | 5.0 | 0–14 | 1.2 | 9% |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 3 | 4.6 | 0–13 | 1.2 | 9% |
| Kirk Cousins LV @ SF | QB | LV vs SF | 1 | 4.0 | 0–12 | 1.1 | 6% |
| Nick Mullens JAX @ BAL | QB | JAX vs BAL | 3.8 | 0–12 | 0.8 | 5% | |
| Luther Burden III CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 2 | 3.4 | 0–13 | 0.8 | 20% |
| Zay Flowers BAL vs JAX | WR | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 2.5 | 0–9 | 0.5 | 25% |
| Tez Johnson TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 4 | 2.1 | 0–9 | 0.5 | 16% |
| Emeka Egbuka TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 1 | 1.9 | 0–8 | 0.4 | 27% |
| Jacob Cowing SF vs LV | WR | SF vs LV | 6 | 1.8 | 0–8 | 0.3 | |
| Tre Tucker LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 1 | 1.0 | 0–4 | 0.2 | 21% |
| Chris Godwin Jr. TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 2 | 1.0 | 0–1 | 0.2 | 11% |
| Connor Heyward LV @ SF | FB | LV vs SF | 1 | 0.8 | 0–3 | 0.4 | |
| Matthew Golden GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 2 | 0.8 | 0–1 | 0.2 | 23% |
| Deven Thompkins LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | ||
| Parker Washington JAX @ BAL | WR | JAX vs BAL | 1 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 23% |
| Jakobi Meyers JAX @ BAL | WR | JAX vs BAL | 2 | 0.6 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 18% |
| Tucker Kraft GB @ NE | TE | GB vs NE | 1 | 0.5 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 29% |
| Efton Chism III NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 3 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 9% |
| Zavion Thomas CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 4 | 0.4 | 0–0 | 0.1 | |
| Kalif Raymond CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 3 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 9% |
| Malik Benson LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 5 | 0.3 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 11% |
| DeMario Douglas NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 10% |
| Jonnu Smith GB @ NE | TE | GB vs NE | 2 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 5% |
| Mark Andrews BAL vs JAX | TE | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.1 | 21% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. JAX @ BAL | WR | JAX vs BAL | 4 | 0.2 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 13% |
| Kameron Johnson TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 6 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | |
| Kyle Williams NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 4 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 6% |
| Brock Bowers LV @ SF | TE | LV vs SF | 1 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 31% |
| Jalen Nailor LV @ SF | WR | LV vs SF | 2 | 0.1 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 17% |
| Christian Watson CHART GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 28% |
| Kyle Juszczyk SF vs LV | FB | SF vs LV | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 18% |
| George Kittle SF vs LV | TE | SF vs LV | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 34% |
| Colston Loveland CHI vs TB | TE | CHI vs TB | 1 | 0.0 | 0–0 | 0.0 | 35% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, SEA, SF, TB, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →