| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | p10–p90 ⇅ | — ⇅ | TD% ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 1 | 0.77 | 54% | ||
| Bhayshul Tuten JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 1 | 0.69 | 50% | ||
| Bucky Irving TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 1 | 0.59 | 44% | ||
| Colston Loveland CHI vs TB | TE | CHI vs TB | 1 | 0.43 | 35% | ||
| Hunter Henry NE vs GB | TE | NE vs GB | 1 | 0.40 | 33% | ||
| Eli Raridon NE vs GB | TE | NE vs GB | 2 | 0.38 | 31% | ||
| Derrick Henry BAL vs JAX | RB | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 0.35 | 29% | ||
| Kenny Gainwell TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 2 | 0.34 | 29% | ||
| Tucker Kraft GB @ NE | TE | GB vs NE | 1 | 0.34 | 29% | ||
| Christian Watson CHART GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 1 | 0.33 | 28% | ||
| Emeka Egbuka TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 1 | 0.32 | 27% | ||
| Kyle Monangai CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 2 | 0.30 | 26% | ||
| Ja'Kobi Lane BAL vs JAX | WR | BAL vs JAX | 3 | 0.30 | 26% | ||
| Zay Flowers BAL vs JAX | WR | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 0.29 | 25% | ||
| Roschon Johnson CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 3 | 0.29 | 25% | ||
| A.J. Brown NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 1 | 0.27 | 24% | ||
| MarShawn Lloyd GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 2 | 0.27 | 23% | ||
| Matthew Golden GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 2 | 0.26 | 23% | ||
| Rashod Bateman BAL vs JAX | WR | BAL vs JAX | 2 | 0.26 | 23% | ||
| Parker Washington JAX @ BAL | WR | JAX vs BAL | 1 | 0.26 | 23% | ||
| D'Andre Swift CHI vs TB | RB | CHI vs TB | 1 | 0.25 | 22% | ||
| Corey Kiner NE vs GB | RB | NE vs GB | 3 | 0.24 | 22% | ||
| Rome Odunze CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 1 | 0.24 | 21% | ||
| Mark Andrews BAL vs JAX | TE | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 0.23 | 21% | ||
| Josh Cameron JAX @ BAL | WR | JAX vs BAL | 3 | 0.22 | 20% | ||
| Luther Burden III CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 2 | 0.22 | 20% | ||
| Brenton Strange JAX @ BAL | TE | JAX vs BAL | 1 | 0.22 | 19% | ||
| Sean Tucker TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 3 | 0.21 | 19% | ||
| Jakobi Meyers JAX @ BAL | WR | JAX vs BAL | 2 | 0.20 | 18% | ||
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE vs GB | RB | NE vs GB | 1 | 0.20 | 18% | ||
| Drake Maye NE vs GB | QB | NE vs GB | 1 | 0.20 | 18% | ||
| Trevor Lawrence JAX @ BAL | QB | JAX vs BAL | 1 | 0.19 | 17% | ||
| Josh Cuevas BAL vs JAX | TE | BAL vs JAX | 3 | 0.18 | 17% | ||
| Tez Johnson TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 4 | 0.18 | 16% | ||
| Behren Morton NE vs GB | QB | NE vs GB | 3 | 0.17 | 15% | ||
| Tyler Huntley BAL vs JAX | QB | BAL vs JAX | 2 | 0.16 | 15% | ||
| TreVeyon Henderson NE vs GB | RB | NE vs GB | 2 | 0.16 | 14% | ||
| Lamar Jackson CHART BAL vs JAX | QB | BAL vs JAX | 1 | 0.15 | 14% | ||
| Ted Hurst III TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 3 | 0.14 | 13% | ||
| Brian Thomas Jr. JAX @ BAL | WR | JAX vs BAL | 4 | 0.14 | 13% | ||
| Caleb Williams CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 1 | 0.14 | 13% | ||
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 2 | 0.14 | 13% | ||
| Joe Fagnano BAL vs JAX | QB | BAL vs JAX | 3 | 0.14 | 13% | ||
| Miller Moss CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 0.14 | 13% | |||
| Cade Otton TB @ CHI | TE | TB vs CHI | 1 | 0.13 | 13% | ||
| Rasheen Ali BAL vs JAX | RB | BAL vs JAX | 3 | 0.13 | 12% | ||
| Chris Godwin Jr. TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 2 | 0.12 | 11% | ||
| Case Keenum CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 3 | 0.11 | 11% | ||
| DeMario Douglas NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 2 | 0.11 | 10% | ||
| Efton Chism III NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 3 | 0.10 | 9% | ||
| Easton Stick TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 0.10 | 9% | |||
| LeQuint Allen Jr. JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 3 | 0.10 | 9% | ||
| Tommy DeVito NE vs GB | QB | NE vs GB | 2 | 0.09 | 9% | ||
| Kalif Raymond CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 3 | 0.09 | 9% | ||
| Savion Williams GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 3 | 0.09 | 9% | ||
| Justice Hill BAL vs JAX | RB | BAL vs JAX | 2 | 0.09 | 9% | ||
| Baker Mayfield CHART TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 1 | 0.09 | 8% | ||
| Nate Boerkircher JAX @ BAL | TE | JAX vs BAL | 2 | 0.09 | 8% | ||
| Josh Williams TB @ CHI | RB | TB vs CHI | 0.09 | 8% | |||
| Jalon Daniels TB @ CHI | QB | TB vs CHI | 2 | 0.09 | 8% | ||
| Jordan Love GB @ NE | QB | GB vs NE | 1 | 0.09 | 8% | ||
| Tyson Bagent CHI vs TB | QB | CHI vs TB | 2 | 0.09 | 8% | ||
| Devontez Walker BAL vs JAX | WR | BAL vs JAX | 4 | 0.08 | 8% | ||
| Matthew Hibner BAL vs JAX | TE | BAL vs JAX | 2 | 0.07 | 7% | ||
| Pierre Strong GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 3 | 0.07 | 7% | ||
| Cole Kmet CHI vs TB | TE | CHI vs TB | 3 | 0.07 | 6% | ||
| Quinn Ewers JAX @ BAL | QB | JAX vs BAL | 2 | 0.07 | 6% | ||
| Kyle Williams NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 4 | 0.07 | 6% | ||
| Ameer Abdullah JAX @ BAL | RB | JAX vs BAL | 4 | 0.06 | 6% | ||
| Jahdae Walker CHI vs TB | WR | CHI vs TB | 5 | 0.06 | 6% | ||
| Jalen Hurd NE vs GB | WR | NE vs GB | 0.06 | 6% | |||
| Tyrod Taylor GB @ NE | QB | GB vs NE | 2 | 0.05 | 5% | ||
| Jonnu Smith GB @ NE | TE | GB vs NE | 2 | 0.05 | 5% | ||
| Nick Mullens JAX @ BAL | QB | JAX vs BAL | 0.05 | 5% | |||
| Kaleb Johnson GB @ NE | RB | GB vs NE | 4 | 0.04 | 4% | ||
| David Sills TB @ CHI | WR | TB vs CHI | 5 | 0.04 | 4% | ||
| Coleman Owen GB @ NE | WR | GB vs NE | 6 | 0.04 | 4% | ||
| Josh Whyle GB @ NE | TE | GB vs NE | 4 | 0.04 | 4% |
No market lines on this page, by construction. The saved line file carries no week, so pricing next week's projections against it would attach this week's numbers to them. Nothing here is a bet signal — it is where the model expects the workload to be before the market has an opinion.
No game line yet for ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LA, LAC, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, SEA, SF, TB, WAS — the schedule carries no spread or total for those games, so their touchdown numbers are levelled to an average game environment (22.63 implied points) rather than to their own. Volume and yardage are unaffected; treat the TD% column for those teams as a placeholder.
Injury reports for this week are not published yet, so every projection here assumes availability. Why that matters
Projections only, not advice. How this works →