| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson BAL @ IND | QB | BAL vs IND | 1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.472 | 0.448 | 113 | -137 | OVERO -1.1% |
| Daniel Jones IND vs BAL | QB | IND vs BAL | 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.414 | 0.405 | 138 | -161 | OVERO -1.2% |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.