| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Side ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield TB @ CIN | QB | TB vs CIN | 1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.429 | 0.509 | -112 | -104 | UNDER | +0.8% |
| Brock Purdy CHART SF @ LA | QB | SF vs LA | 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.408 | 0.483 | 100 | -115 | UNDER | +0.6% |
| Josh Allen BUF @ HOU | QB | BUF vs HOU | 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.414 | 0.366 | 170 | -180 | OVER | +0.5% |
| Jordan Love GB @ MIN | QB | GB vs MIN | 1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.384 | 0.456 | 108 | -135 | UNDER | +0.4% |
| Joe Burrow CHART CIN vs TB | QB | CIN vs TB | 1 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.268 | 0.349 | 168 | -230 | UNDER | -0.1% |
| Matthew Stafford LA vs SF | QB | LA vs SF | 1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.532 | 0.574 | -150 | 125 | UNDER | -0.2% |
| Dak Prescott DAL @ NYG | QB | DAL vs NYG | 1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.515 | 0.549 | -132 | 114 | UNDER | -0.5% |
| Bryce Young CAR vs CHI | QB | CAR vs CHI | 1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.385 | 0.423 | 130 | -146 | UNDER | -0.6% |
| Jared Goff DET vs NO | QB | DET vs NO | 1 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.596 | 0.622 | -192 | 150 | UNDER | -0.9% |
| Bo Nix DEN @ KC | QB | DEN vs KC | 1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.343 | 0.338 | 185 | -220 | OVER | -1.1% |
| Lamar Jackson BAL @ IND | QB | BAL vs IND | 1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.472 | 0.448 | 113 | -137 | OVER | -1.1% |
| Caleb Williams CHI @ CAR | QB | CHI vs CAR | 1 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.480 | 0.502 | -109 | -107 | UNDER | -1.1% |
| Daniel Jones IND vs BAL | QB | IND vs BAL | 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.414 | 0.405 | 138 | -161 | OVER | -1.2% |
| Jaxson Dart CHART NYG vs DAL | QB | NYG vs DAL | 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.398 | 0.409 | 138 | -154 | UNDER | -1.3% |
| C.J. Stroud CHART HOU vs BUF | QB | HOU vs BUF | 1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.371 | 0.414 | 128 | -164 | UNDER | -1.3% |
| Jayden Daniels WAS @ PHI | QB | WAS vs PHI | 1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.327 | 0.320 | 197 | -250 | OVER | -1.3% |
| Malik Willis CHART MIA @ LV | QB | MIA vs LV | 1 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.637 | 0.631 | -187 | 162 | UNDER | -1.4% |
| Geno Smith NYJ @ TEN | QB | NYJ vs TEN | 1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.297 | 0.319 | 204 | -235 | UNDER | -1.4% |
| Trevor Lawrence JAX vs CLE | QB | JAX vs CLE | 1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.454 | 0.483 | -104 | -120 | UNDER | -1.5% |
| Kirk Cousins LV vs MIA | QB | LV vs MIA | 1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.370 | 0.399 | 140 | -168 | UNDER | -1.5% |
| Drake Maye NE @ SEA | QB | NE vs SEA | 1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.360 | 0.372 | 160 | -185 | OVER | -1.6% |
| Jalen Hurts CHART PHI vs WAS | QB | PHI vs WAS | 1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.456 | 0.449 | 112 | -138 | OVER | -2.0% |
| Sam Darnold SEA vs NE | QB | SEA vs NE | 1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.441 | 0.460 | 106 | -132 | UNDER | -2.0% |
| Cam Ward TEN vs NYJ | QB | TEN vs NYJ | 1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.336 | 0.342 | 178 | -225 | OVER | -2.1% |
| Tyler Shough NO @ DET | QB | NO vs DET | 1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.380 | 0.399 | 139 | -170 | UNDER | -2.1% |
| Jacoby Brissett ARI @ LAC | QB | ARI vs LAC | 1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.332 | 0.351 | 173 | -210 | UNDER | -2.1% |
| Patrick Mahomes KC vs DEN | QB | KC vs DEN | 1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.434 | 0.443 | 116 | -139 | UNDER | -2.1% |
| Kyler Murray CHART MIN vs GB | QB | MIN vs GB | 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.423 | 0.425 | 124 | -152 | OVER | -2.2% |
| Tua Tagovailoa CHART ATL @ PIT | QB | ATL vs PIT | 1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.678 | 0.654 | -224 | 173 | OVER | -2.5% |
| Justin Herbert CHART LAC vs ARI | QB | LAC vs ARI | 1 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.316 | 0.349 | 168 | -230 | UNDER | -2.7% |
| Aaron Rodgers PIT vs ATL | QB | PIT vs ATL | 1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.402 | 0.417 | 126 | -162 | UNDER | -2.8% |
| Deshaun Watson CLE @ JAX | QB | CLE vs JAX | 1 | 0.5 | 0.602 | -167 | 142 |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.