54 legs
| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Side ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadarian Price CHART SEA vs NE | RB | SEA vs NE | 1 | 52.5 | 9.4 | 0.012 | 0.500 | -112 | -112 | UNDER | +20.8% |
| MarShawn Lloyd CHART GB @ MIN | RB | GB vs MIN | 1 | 51.5 | 21.5 | 0.059 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | UNDER | +18.7% |
| Bhayshul Tuten CHART JAX vs CLE | RB | JAX vs CLE | 1 | 53.5 | 26.3 | 0.061 | 0.502 | -113 | -111 | UNDER | +18.6% |
| Chase Brown CIN vs TB | RB | CIN vs TB | 1 | 61.5 | 29.1 | 0.061 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | UNDER | +18.3% |
| David Montgomery HOU vs BUF | RB | HOU vs BUF | 1 | 57.5 | 41.6 | 0.195 | 0.510 | -120 | -110 | UNDER | +13.9% |
| Aaron Jones MIN vs GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 1 | 31.5 | 48.9 | 0.771 | 0.493 | -109 | -116 | OVER | +11.0% |
| Cam Skattebo NYG vs DAL | RB | NYG vs DAL | 1 | 49.5 | 38.7 | 0.259 | 0.502 | -113 | -111 | UNDER | +9.0% |
| Kenneth Walker III KC vs DEN | RB | KC vs DEN | 1 | 62.5 | 49.6 | 0.271 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | UNDER | +8.5% |
| Tyler Shough NO @ DET | QB | NO vs DET | 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 0.291 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +8.2% |
| Javonte Williams DAL @ NYG | RB | DAL vs NYG | 1 | 73.5 | 60.6 | 0.271 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | UNDER | +8.1% |
| Deshaun Watson CLE @ JAX | QB | CLE vs JAX | 1 | 19.5 | 14.5 | 0.284 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | UNDER | +7.9% |
| Quinshon Judkins CLE @ JAX | RB | CLE vs JAX | 1 | 59.5 | 48.5 | 0.279 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | UNDER | +7.8% |
| Kyler Murray CHART MIN vs GB | QB | MIN vs GB | 1 | 22.5 | 38.3 | 0.710 | 0.494 | -109 | -115 | OVER | +7.6% |
| Caleb Williams CHI @ CAR | QB | CHI vs CAR | 1 | 22.5 | 17.6 | 0.310 | 0.500 | -112 | -112 | UNDER | +6.4% |
| Jaxson Dart CHART NYG vs DAL | QB | NYG vs DAL | 1 | 30.5 | 44.5 | 0.690 | 0.488 | -105 | -116 | OVER | +6.2% |
| Jordan Mason MIN vs GB | RB | MIN vs GB | 2 | 46.5 | 39.2 | 0.325 | 0.493 | -109 | -116 | UNDER | +5.4% |
| Omarion Hampton LAC vs ARI | RB | LAC vs ARI | 1 | 65.5 | 59.6 | 0.353 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +4.8% |
| Josh Allen BUF @ HOU | QB | BUF vs HOU | 1 | 31.5 | 44.1 | 0.667 | 0.501 | -111 | -110 | OVER | +4.7% |
| Brock Purdy CHART SF @ LA | QB | SF vs LA | 1 | 15.5 | 13.0 | 0.340 | 0.494 | -109 | -115 | UNDER | +4.6% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE @ SEA | RB | NE vs SEA | 1 | 43.5 | 39.2 | 0.348 | 0.490 | -110 | -120 | UNDER | +4.2% |
| Kyren Williams LA vs SF | RB | LA vs SF | 1 | 58.5 | 69.9 | 0.623 | 0.495 | -113 | -118 | OVER | +3.5% |
| Bijan Robinson ATL @ PIT | RB | ATL vs PIT | 1 | 78.5 | 74.1 | 0.381 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +3.3% |
| Drake Maye NE @ SEA | QB | NE vs SEA | 1 | 25.5 | 36.6 | 0.638 | 0.483 | 100 | -115 | OVER | +3.2% |
| Baker Mayfield TB @ CIN | QB | TB vs CIN | 1 | 15.5 | 13.8 | 0.357 | 0.490 | -105 | -114 | UNDER | +3.0% |
| Bucky Irving TB @ CIN | RB | TB vs CIN | 1 | 58.5 | 55.6 | 0.388 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +2.9% |
| Trevor Lawrence JAX vs CLE | QB | JAX vs CLE | 1 | 17.5 | 16.6 | 0.389 | 0.502 | -112 | -110 | UNDER | +2.5% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET vs NO | RB | DET vs NO | 1 | 84.5 | 80.0 | 0.388 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | UNDER | +2.5% |
| Bo Nix DEN @ KC | QB | DEN vs KC | 1 | 16.5 | 16.4 | 0.403 | 0.511 | -117 | -107 | UNDER | +2.4% |
| Saquon Barkley PHI vs WAS | RB | PHI vs WAS | 1 | 75.5 | 72.0 | 0.391 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | UNDER | +2.2% |
| J.K. Dobbins DEN @ KC | RB | DEN vs KC | 1 | 52.5 | 50.8 | 0.400 | 0.500 | -112 | -112 | UNDER | +2.0% |
| Jalen Hurts CHART PHI vs WAS | QB | PHI vs WAS | 1 | 28.5 | 36.3 | 0.601 | 0.499 | -110 | -111 | OVER | +1.9% |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS @ PHI | RB | WAS vs PHI | 1 | 41.5 | 41.5 | 0.407 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | UNDER | +1.4% |
| Derrick Henry BAL @ IND | RB | BAL vs IND | 1 | 80.5 | 95.7 | 0.583 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | OVER | +1.3% |
| Patrick Mahomes KC vs DEN | QB | KC vs DEN | 1 | 15.5 | 21.7 | 0.580 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | OVER | +1.2% |
| Jayden Daniels WAS @ PHI | QB | WAS vs PHI | 1 | 38.5 | 46.9 | 0.584 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | OVER | +1.0% |
| Blake Corum LA vs SF | RB | LA vs SF | 2 | 37.5 | 37.3 | 0.420 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | UNDER | +0.9% |
| Geno Smith NYJ @ TEN | QB | NYJ vs TEN | 1 | 5.5 | 11.5 | 0.576 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | OVER | +0.9% |
| Bryce Young CAR vs CHI | QB | CAR vs CHI | 1 | 15.5 | 14.6 | 0.370 | 0.455 | 105 | -140 | UNDER | +0.8% |
| Jordan Love GB @ MIN | QB | GB vs MIN | 1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 0.426 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +0.8% |
| Travis Etienne NO @ DET | RB | NO vs DET | 1 | 52.5 | 52.2 | 0.420 | 0.495 | -109 | -114 | UNDER | +0.8% |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX vs CLE | RB | JAX vs CLE | 2 | 34.5 | 41.4 | 0.565 | 0.495 | -113 | -118 | OVER | +0.3% |
| Breece Hall NYJ @ TEN | RB | NYJ vs TEN | 1 | 64.5 | 66.3 | 0.442 | 0.502 | -114 | -112 | UNDER | +0.1% |
| James Cook BUF @ HOU | RB | BUF vs HOU | 1 | 77.5 | 85.7 | 0.543 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | OVER | -0.5% |
| Cam Ward TEN vs NYJ | QB | TEN vs NYJ | 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 0.548 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | OVER | -0.7% |
| Lamar Jackson BAL @ IND | QB | BAL vs IND | 1 | 37.5 | 39.3 | 0.470 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | -1.6% |
| Sam Darnold SEA vs NE | QB | SEA vs NE | 1 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 0.528 | 0.506 | -114 | -108 | OVER | -1.7% |
| Christian McCaffrey SF @ LA | RB | SF vs LA | 1 | 59.5 | 66.2 | 0.529 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | OVER | -1.7% |
| De'Von Achane MIA @ LV | RB | MIA vs LV | 1 | 69.5 | 77.6 | 0.512 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | OVER | -2.0% |
| Jonathan Taylor IND vs BAL | RB | IND vs BAL | 1 | 77.5 | 83.1 | 0.481 | 0.499 | -114 | -115 | UNDER | -2.4% |
| Tony Pollard TEN vs NYJ | RB | TEN vs NYJ | 1 | 54.5 | 57.2 | 0.485 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | -2.4% |
| Woody Marks HOU vs BUF | RB | HOU vs BUF | 2 | 32.5 | 34.3 | 0.485 | 0.500 | -115 | -115 | UNDER | -2.7% |
| Joe Burrow CHART CIN vs TB | QB | CIN vs TB | 1 | 7.5 | 10.3 | 0.489 | 0.492 | -108 | -116 | UNDER | -2.7% |
| George Holani SEA vs NE | RB | SEA vs NE | 2 | 21.5 | 24.8 | 0.510 | 0.500 | -115 | -115 | OVER | -2.9% |
| TreVeyon Henderson NE @ SEA | RB | NE vs SEA | 2 | 34.5 | 42.9 | 0.503 | 0.502 | -115 | -113 | OVER | -3.2% |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.