| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Side ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett ARI @ LAC | QB | ARI vs LAC | 1 | 225.5 | 280.5 | 0.686 | 0.499 | -111 | -112 | ||
| Tua Tagovailoa CHART ATL @ PIT | QB | ATL vs PIT | 1 | 211.5 | 190.0 | 0.335 | 0.500 | -112 | -112 | ||
| Lamar Jackson BAL @ IND | QB | BAL vs IND | 1 | 223.5 | 196.1 | 0.310 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | ||
| Josh Allen BUF @ HOU | QB | BUF vs HOU | 1 | 223.5 | 229.2 | 0.483 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | ||
| Bryce Young CAR vs CHI | QB | CAR vs CHI | 1 | 215.5 | 188.2 | 0.305 | 0.500 | -112 | -112 | ||
| Caleb Williams CHI @ CAR | QB | CHI vs CAR | 1 | 234.5 | 231.9 | 0.442 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | ||
| Joe Burrow CHART CIN vs TB | QB | CIN vs TB | 1 | 273.5 | 226.1 | 0.250 | 0.503 | -117 | -114 | ||
| Deshaun Watson CLE @ JAX | QB | CLE vs JAX | 1 | 178.5 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | ||||
| Dak Prescott DAL @ NYG | QB | DAL vs NYG | 1 | 260.5 | 267.8 | 0.485 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | ||
| Bo Nix DEN @ KC | QB | DEN vs KC | 1 | 230.5 | 231.2 | 0.458 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | ||
| Jared Goff DET vs NO | QB | DET vs NO | 1 | 264.5 | 268.5 | 0.471 | 0.500 | -112 | -112 | ||
| Jordan Love GB @ MIN | QB | GB vs MIN | 1 | 238.5 | 225.4 | 0.391 | 0.502 | -114 | -112 | ||
| C.J. Stroud CHART HOU vs BUF | QB | HOU vs BUF | 1 | 227.5 | 217.2 | 0.402 | 0.500 | -115 | -115 | ||
| Daniel Jones IND vs BAL | QB | IND vs BAL | 1 | 233.5 | 253.4 | 0.546 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | ||
| Trevor Lawrence JAX vs CLE | QB | JAX vs CLE | 1 | 238.5 | 235.7 | 0.441 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | ||
| Patrick Mahomes KC vs DEN | QB | KC vs DEN | 1 | 227.5 | 256.2 | 0.586 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | ||
| Matthew Stafford LA vs SF | QB | LA vs SF | 1 | 267.5 | 276.9 | 0.493 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | ||
| Justin Herbert CHART LAC vs ARI | QB | LAC vs ARI | 1 | 237.5 | 232.9 | 0.432 | 0.500 | -115 | -115 | ||
| Kirk Cousins LV vs MIA | QB | LV vs MIA | 1 | 215.5 | 188.0 | 0.304 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | ||
| Malik Willis CHART MIA @ LV | QB | MIA vs LV | 1 | 184.5 | 204.5 | 0.569 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | ||
| Kyler Murray CHART MIN vs GB | QB | MIN vs GB | 1 | 223.5 | 192.4 | 0.290 | 0.502 | -113 | -111 | ||
| Drake Maye NE @ SEA | QB | NE vs SEA | 1 | 232.5 | 258.5 | 0.572 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | ||
| Tyler Shough NO @ DET | QB | NO vs DET | 1 | 246.5 | 238.4 | 0.417 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | ||
| Jaxson Dart CHART NYG vs DAL | QB | NYG vs DAL | 1 | 217.5 | 189.3 | 0.302 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | ||
| Geno Smith NYJ @ TEN | QB | NYJ vs TEN | 1 | 212.5 | 201.7 | 0.396 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | ||
| Jalen Hurts CHART PHI vs WAS | QB | PHI vs WAS | 1 | 214.5 | 201.5 | 0.384 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | ||
| Aaron Rodgers PIT vs ATL | QB | PIT vs ATL | 1 | 218.5 | 207.6 | 0.397 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | ||
| Sam Darnold SEA vs NE | QB | SEA vs NE | 1 | 234.5 | 238.1 | 0.472 | 0.500 | -115 | -115 | ||
| Brock Purdy CHART SF @ LA | QB | SF vs LA | 1 | 246.5 | 240.8 | 0.428 | 0.503 | -115 | -112 | ||
| Baker Mayfield TB @ CIN | QB | TB vs CIN | 1 | 247.5 | 217.2 | 0.310 | 0.497 | -114 | -117 | ||
| Cam Ward TEN vs NYJ | QB | TEN vs NYJ | 1 | 209.5 | 194.8 | 0.373 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | ||
| Jayden Daniels WAS @ PHI | QB | WAS vs PHI | 1 | 205.5 | 180.3 | 0.310 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 |
Pass yards is suppressed. -16.0% 2024 / -10.9% 2025 on closing prices; corr(model, market) = -0.12. The line, the odds and the model's own number are still shown so the market keeps being measured, but the edge column is deliberately blank — graded across two full seasons this market lost money while reporting an edge, and its probability ran negatively correlated with the market's.
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.