85 legs
| Player ⇅ | Pos ⇅ | Matchup ⇅ | Dep ⇅ | Line ⇅ | Proj ⇅ | Model ⇅ | Mkt ⇅ | Over ⇅ | Under ⇅ | Side ⇅ | Edge ⇅ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carnell Tate CHART TEN vs NYJ | WR | TEN vs NYJ | 1 | 42.5 | 21.9 | 0.158 | 0.500 | -112 | -112 | UNDER | +13.7% |
| Luther Burden III CHI @ CAR | WR | CHI vs CAR | 2 | 53.5 | 32.5 | 0.201 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +13.2% |
| Colston Loveland CHI @ CAR | TE | CHI vs CAR | 1 | 50.5 | 33.6 | 0.217 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +12.3% |
| KC Concepcion CLE @ JAX | WR | CLE vs JAX | 2 | 33.5 | 21.7 | 0.234 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +11.4% |
| Matthew Golden GB @ MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 3 | 40.5 | 24.3 | 0.217 | 0.500 | -111 | -111 | UNDER | +10.1% |
| Chase Brown CIN vs TB | RB | CIN vs TB | 1 | 22.5 | 15.0 | 0.238 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | UNDER | +10.1% |
| Jauan Jennings MIN vs GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 3 | 24.5 | 45.2 | 0.732 | 0.502 | -113 | -111 | OVER | +8.3% |
| Parker Washington JAX vs CLE | WR | JAX vs CLE | 2 | 53.5 | 39.8 | 0.266 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | UNDER | +8.3% |
| Brock Bowers LV vs MIA | TE | LV vs MIA | 1 | 64.5 | 49.7 | 0.272 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | UNDER | +8.1% |
| DJ Moore CHART BUF @ HOU | WR | BUF vs HOU | 1 | 47.5 | 36.3 | 0.299 | 0.500 | -115 | -115 | UNDER | +7.6% |
| Brenton Strange JAX vs CLE | TE | JAX vs CLE | 1 | 36.5 | 28.8 | 0.306 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +7.4% |
| Mark Andrews BAL @ IND | TE | BAL vs IND | 1 | 34.5 | 28.4 | 0.320 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +6.6% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET vs NO | RB | DET vs NO | 1 | 32.5 | 25.4 | 0.299 | 0.499 | -110 | -111 | UNDER | +6.1% |
| Tee Higgins CIN vs TB | WR | CIN vs TB | 2 | 63.5 | 53.0 | 0.326 | 0.502 | -113 | -111 | UNDER | +5.7% |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. SF @ LA | WR | SF vs LA | 2 | 31.5 | 51.9 | 0.676 | 0.499 | -110 | -111 | OVER | +5.2% |
| CeeDee Lamb DAL @ NYG | WR | DAL vs NYG | 1 | 76.5 | 66.9 | 0.347 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +5.1% |
| Michael Pittman PIT vs ATL | WR | PIT vs ATL | 2 | 50.5 | 43.7 | 0.343 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | UNDER | +5.0% |
| Tre Harris LAC vs ARI | WR | LAC vs ARI | 3 | 26.5 | 21.9 | 0.327 | 0.497 | -109 | -112 | UNDER | +4.8% |
| Dalton Kincaid BUF @ HOU | TE | BUF vs HOU | 1 | 37.5 | 32.4 | 0.351 | 0.502 | -114 | -112 | UNDER | +4.8% |
| Ja'Marr Chase CIN vs TB | WR | CIN vs TB | 1 | 89.5 | 77.5 | 0.343 | 0.500 | -112 | -112 | UNDER | +4.8% |
| Tetairoa McMillan CAR vs CHI | WR | CAR vs CHI | 1 | 61.5 | 52.1 | 0.340 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | UNDER | +4.7% |
| Malik Nabers NYG vs DAL | WR | NYG vs DAL | 1 | 62.5 | 53.4 | 0.341 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | UNDER | +4.6% |
| Garrett Wilson NYJ @ TEN | WR | NYJ vs TEN | 1 | 61.5 | 52.9 | 0.344 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | UNDER | +4.6% |
| Jayden Reed GB @ MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 2 | 39.5 | 34.4 | 0.357 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +4.6% |
| Ladd McConkey LAC vs ARI | WR | LAC vs ARI | 1 | 55.5 | 48.7 | 0.354 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | UNDER | +4.2% |
| Denzel Boston CLE @ JAX | WR | CLE vs JAX | 3 | 23.5 | 22.0 | 0.367 | 0.500 | -112 | -112 | UNDER | +3.6% |
| DeVonta Smith PHI vs WAS | WR | PHI vs WAS | 1 | 66.5 | 59.3 | 0.360 | 0.498 | -110 | -112 | UNDER | +3.6% |
| Jakobi Meyers CHART JAX vs CLE | WR | JAX vs CLE | 3 | 38.5 | 51.7 | 0.621 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | OVER | +3.2% |
| De'Von Achane MIA @ LV | RB | MIA vs LV | 1 | 34.5 | 31.1 | 0.376 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | UNDER | +3.0% |
| AJ Barner SEA vs NE | TE | SEA vs NE | 1 | 25.5 | 23.9 | 0.383 | 0.500 | -115 | -115 | UNDER | +2.9% |
| Rome Odunze CHI @ CAR | WR | CHI vs CAR | 1 | 47.5 | 43.6 | 0.387 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +2.9% |
| Tre Tucker LV vs MIA | WR | LV vs MIA | 1 | 40.5 | 38.7 | 0.389 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +2.8% |
| Quentin Johnston LAC vs ARI | WR | LAC vs ARI | 2 | 44.5 | 42.4 | 0.389 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | UNDER | +2.8% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. CHART JAX vs CLE | WR | JAX vs CLE | 1 | 36.5 | 55.1 | 0.623 | 0.504 | -113 | -109 | OVER | +2.7% |
| Rhamondre Stevenson NE @ SEA | RB | NE vs SEA | 1 | 17.5 | 17.7 | 0.390 | 0.505 | -114 | -109 | UNDER | +2.7% |
| Saquon Barkley PHI vs WAS | RB | PHI vs WAS | 1 | 16.5 | 16.7 | 0.381 | 0.501 | -110 | -109 | UNDER | +2.5% |
| Jerry Jeudy CLE @ JAX | WR | CLE vs JAX | 1 | 31.5 | 45.3 | 0.599 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | OVER | +2.2% |
| Trey McBride ARI @ LAC | TE | ARI vs LAC | 1 | 58.5 | 69.4 | 0.595 | 0.495 | -110 | -115 | OVER | +2.1% |
| Jameson Williams DET vs NO | WR | DET vs NO | 2 | 64.5 | 61.1 | 0.397 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | UNDER | +1.9% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET vs NO | WR | DET vs NO | 1 | 83.5 | 78.8 | 0.405 | 0.502 | -113 | -111 | UNDER | +1.9% |
| Juwan Johnson NO @ DET | TE | NO vs DET | 1 | 44.5 | 42.4 | 0.410 | 0.506 | -115 | -109 | UNDER | +1.9% |
| Kenneth Walker III KC vs DEN | RB | KC vs DEN | 1 | 17.5 | 18.2 | 0.406 | 0.503 | -117 | -114 | UNDER | +1.8% |
| Rashee Rice KC vs DEN | WR | KC vs DEN | 1 | 62.5 | 59.4 | 0.406 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | UNDER | +1.5% |
| DeMario Douglas NE @ SEA | WR | NE vs SEA | 3 | 20.5 | 21.8 | 0.415 | 0.503 | -113 | -110 | UNDER | +1.4% |
| Xavier Worthy KC vs DEN | WR | KC vs DEN | 2 | 36.5 | 36.3 | 0.420 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +1.2% |
| T.J. Hockenson MIN vs GB | TE | MIN vs GB | 1 | 28.5 | 27.3 | 0.418 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | UNDER | +1.0% |
| George Pickens DAL @ NYG | WR | DAL vs NYG | 2 | 69.5 | 67.3 | 0.422 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | +1.0% |
| Justin Jefferson MIN vs GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 1 | 73.5 | 71.6 | 0.428 | 0.502 | -113 | -111 | UNDER | +0.7% |
| Cooper Kupp SEA vs NE | WR | SEA vs NE | 3 | 33.5 | 34.5 | 0.423 | 0.500 | -115 | -115 | UNDER | +0.7% |
| Quinshon Judkins CLE @ JAX | RB | CLE vs JAX | 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 0.427 | 0.500 | -115 | -115 | UNDER | +0.5% |
| Dallas Goedert PHI vs WAS | TE | PHI vs WAS | 1 | 34.5 | 43.2 | 0.563 | 0.495 | -109 | -114 | OVER | +0.5% |
| Romeo Doubs NE @ SEA | WR | NE vs SEA | 2 | 37.5 | 46.1 | 0.558 | 0.490 | -110 | -120 | OVER | +0.4% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI @ LAC | WR | ARI vs LAC | 1 | 49.5 | 49.0 | 0.424 | 0.495 | -113 | -118 | UNDER | +0.3% |
| Emeka Egbuka TB @ CIN | WR | TB vs CIN | 1 | 54.5 | 54.9 | 0.435 | 0.499 | -111 | -112 | UNDER | +0.2% |
| Stefon Diggs WAS @ PHI | WR | WAS vs PHI | 2 | 42.5 | 52.2 | 0.567 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | OVER | +0.2% |
| Christian Watson GB @ MIN | WR | GB vs MIN | 1 | 54.5 | 56.6 | 0.447 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | UNDER | -0.0% |
| Travis Kelce KC vs DEN | TE | KC vs DEN | 1 | 41.5 | 41.7 | 0.444 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | -0.2% |
| A.J. Brown NE @ SEA | WR | NE vs SEA | 1 | 62.5 | 73.4 | 0.554 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | OVER | -0.5% |
| Breece Hall NYJ @ TEN | RB | NYJ vs TEN | 1 | 16.5 | 19.5 | 0.452 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | -0.6% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs NE | WR | SEA vs NE | 1 | 84.5 | 83.8 | 0.448 | 0.500 | -115 | -115 | UNDER | -0.6% |
| Rashid Shaheed SEA vs NE | WR | SEA vs NE | 2 | 31.5 | 36.7 | 0.453 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | -0.7% |
| Nico Collins HOU vs BUF | WR | HOU vs BUF | 1 | 69.5 | 70.8 | 0.454 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | -0.8% |
| Tucker Kraft GB @ MIN | TE | GB vs MIN | 1 | 45.5 | 48.7 | 0.457 | 0.497 | -110 | -113 | UNDER | -0.9% |
| Bijan Robinson ATL @ PIT | RB | ATL vs PIT | 1 | 37.5 | 40.3 | 0.457 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | UNDER | -1.0% |
| Michael Wilson ARI @ LAC | WR | ARI vs LAC | 2 | 41.5 | 50.6 | 0.538 | 0.501 | -112 | -111 | OVER | -1.0% |
| Terry McLaurin WAS @ PHI | WR | WAS vs PHI | 1 | 52.5 | 56.4 | 0.462 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | -1.2% |
| Jaylen Waddle DEN @ KC | WR | DEN vs KC | 2 | 55.5 | 63.2 | 0.531 | 0.498 | -111 | -113 | OVER | -1.2% |
| Puka Nacua LA vs SF | WR | LA vs SF | 1 | 90.5 | 93.2 | 0.472 | 0.500 | -110 | -110 | UNDER | -1.2% |
| Sam LaPorta DET vs NO | TE | DET vs NO | 1 | 43.5 | 46.1 | 0.470 | 0.502 | -113 | -111 | UNDER | -1.3% |
| Khalil Shakir BUF @ HOU | WR | BUF vs HOU | 2 | 39.5 | 48.8 | 0.536 | 0.499 | -114 | -115 | OVER | -1.3% |
| Jordan Addison MIN vs GB | WR | MIN vs GB | 2 | 45.5 | 49.6 | 0.468 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | UNDER | -1.5% |
| Christian McCaffrey SF @ LA | RB | SF vs LA | 1 | 38.5 | 44.0 | 0.528 | 0.498 | -112 | -114 | OVER | -1.5% |
| Drake London ATL @ PIT | WR | ATL vs PIT | 1 | 64.5 | 71.4 | 0.529 | 0.502 | -113 | -111 | OVER | -1.6% |
| Jonathan Taylor IND vs BAL | RB | IND vs BAL | 1 | 15.5 | 18.6 | 0.469 | 0.500 | -115 | -115 | UNDER | -1.8% |
| Hunter Henry NE @ SEA | TE | NE vs SEA | 1 | 34.5 | 36.7 | 0.476 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | -1.9% |
| TreVeyon Henderson NE @ SEA | RB | NE vs SEA | 2 | 9.5 | 13.8 | 0.525 | 0.511 | -117 | -107 | OVER | -2.2% |
| Dalton Schultz HOU vs BUF | TE | HOU vs BUF | 1 | 35.5 | 38.9 | 0.492 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | UNDER | -2.2% |
| Chris Olave NO @ DET | WR | NO vs DET | 1 | 77.5 | 82.7 | 0.493 | 0.503 | -113 | -110 | UNDER | -2.2% |
| Jake Ferguson DAL @ NYG | TE | DAL vs NYG | 1 | 25.5 | 30.7 | 0.528 | 0.545 | -140 | 105 | UNDER | -2.3% |
| Harold Fannin Jr. CLE @ JAX | TE | CLE vs JAX | 1 | 36.5 | 39.9 | 0.497 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | UNDER | -2.5% |
| Zay Flowers BAL @ IND | WR | BAL vs IND | 1 | 66.5 | 70.5 | 0.483 | 0.500 | -115 | -115 | UNDER | -2.5% |
| Courtland Sutton CHART DEN @ KC | WR | DEN vs KC | 1 | 43.5 | 50.5 | 0.524 | 0.505 | -118 | -113 | OVER | -2.6% |
| Mike Evans SF @ LA | WR | SF vs LA | 1 | 49.5 | 54.6 | 0.488 | 0.500 | -114 | -114 | UNDER | -2.6% |
| Kyle Pitts ATL @ PIT | TE | ATL vs PIT | 1 | 43.5 | 47.7 | 0.491 | 0.496 | -110 | -114 | UNDER | -2.6% |
| DK Metcalf PIT vs ATL | WR | PIT vs ATL | 1 | 48.5 | 55.7 | 0.504 | 0.504 | -114 | -110 | UNDER | -2.8% |
Cold start. No player has in-season usage yet, so the volume model is running on last year and the depth chart, and the touchdown model uses a sharper concentration for that reason. The longshot section of the nasty board turns itself off this week: graded on 2024 and 2025 it loses in week 1 and makes money from week 2 on. Legs marked CHART are ones where the posted depth chart and the model disagree about who starts — in week 1 of 2026 the chart was right and the model was wrong every time.
Reading the columns. Proj is the model's projected value and Line is what is posted. Model and Mkt are the two probabilities of the over — the model's, and the market's after the vig is removed. Edge is the better of the two sides after vig, so a blank edge means no side clears it. Dep is the player's rank at his own position on the posted depth chart.
Projections only. Nothing here is advice, and prices move.